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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

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  • Post #21
  • Quote
  • Apr 21, 2007 7:19am Apr 21, 2007 7:19am
  •  davidl
  • | Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Member | 55 Posts
you might be interested in joining this group. He has some very nice indicators for mt4 as well.

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/TradingChaos/
 
 
  • Post #22
  • Quote
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:07am Apr 23, 2007 2:07am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
OK That's it - I was kicked out earli this morning

USDJPY all three entries finiched in negative teritory
(developing of the trade is in post #16, post #17 and post #20

Inserted Code
[b]DateSignalPriceSLP/L[/b]
20.4.2007 15:55F118.78118.47-0.31[color="Red"]-310[/color]
20.4.2007 15:55BL118.83118.47-0.36[color="#ff0000"]-360[/color]
20.4.2007 15:55BL118.78118.47-0.31[color="#ff0000"]-310[/color]
Total: -980
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #23
  • Quote
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:30am Apr 23, 2007 2:30am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
The EURUSD trade was a good one. I was kicked at 1.3586

I wont quote each trade here because it became too long, will only summarize.

It was an experiment (this is a demo account for, isn't it).
I placed 1 lot order for each and every signal came from the chaos rules.

They were total 38 signals. 38 1-lot-orders were placed
7 ended with a loss, all others (31) are profitable.
Max loss is -460
Max win is 2340
P/L result is 31 060
S/L was moved 3 times and last one was fired.

Looking for the next chance
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  • Post #24
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:45am Apr 23, 2007 3:16am | Edited 5:45am
  •  SeekingLight
  • Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
I looked into this briefly. I believe it was intended for daily timeframes originally and meant to take in trending sections (Alligator opens it's mouth etc).
Imho back when I checked it simply lagged price lightyears due to relying on so god awful many moving averages/oscillators and caught the last 5-15% of most moves if at all.
Did not convince me at all. Even most 4h EMA crosses would most likely do better on average(especially with pullback entries).

If you can make it work for you, all the better, but imho it's just making a basic concept (if the market moves strongly, follow it) a lot more complicated than it needs to be. Even a Breakout system is a lot more effective.
Ask our good friend MrTrend or have a look at StevieT....super simple approach, still gets net pips.

Just my opinion.


Take care,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
 
 
  • Post #25
  • Quote
  • Apr 23, 2007 3:44am Apr 23, 2007 3:44am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
Thank you for your post SeekingLight.

I'll appreciate any comments for I think each point of view contains some truth. Thank you for your opinion, I'll think on it.

All the best

I

Quoting SeekingLight
Disliked
I looked into this briefly. I believe it was intended for daily timeframes originally and meant to take in trending sections (Alligator opens it's mouth etc).
Imho back when I checked it simply lagged price lightyears du to relying on so god awful many moving averages/oscillators and caught the last 5-15% of most moves if at all.
Did not convince me at all. Even most 4h EMA crosses would most likely do better on average(especially with pullback entries).

If you can make it work for you, all the better, but imho it's just making a basic concept (if the market moves strongly, follow it) a lot more complicated than it needs to be. Even a Breakout system is a lot more effective.
Ask our good friend MrTrend or have a look at StevieT....super simple approach, still gets net pips.

Just my opinion.


Take care,

SeekingLight
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #26
  • Quote
  • Apr 23, 2007 8:05am Apr 23, 2007 8:05am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
Hello

I've re-read the last book about Chaos by BW and decided to add the rule about "Reverse bar".

It is quite simple one and if succed could final with a good profit, if not, the loss will be reduced (I hope)

So here are the rules:

Bearish Reversla Bar - sell orders

1. Bar with higher high that closes in the botom half - that should mean that bulls have been stronger at the beginning but next bears have superiority at bar closing.

2. Prices must be far away from the lines and must have obvious angle increase (opening) between MA lines and line drawn on the lows.

Entry:
Sell stop close below the low of the reverse bar
Stop loss little above the high of the same bar

That's it. Reverse for buy (use highs not lows!)

Why this is added? - If succeed it will allow an earlier entry.
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  • Post #27
  • Quote
  • Apr 23, 2007 10:39am Apr 23, 2007 10:39am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
OK after the theory - let's try it

Here is EURUSD H1 setup

 

  1. AO is read (down move);
  2. bar is away below ma lines.
  3. Slopes of ma and price are in an opening angle - price much steeper.

Good candidate for retrace end...

So
a Buy stop order -1 lot - placed above the Divergent (reverse) Bar at 1.3575
a stop loss place on the other side of the bar at 1.3536

whish me good luck

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  • Post #28
  • Quote
  • Apr 24, 2007 5:02am Apr 24, 2007 5:02am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
HI

This is how yesterday setup (post #28) goes currently...

 

  1. We have another divergent (reverse) bar;
  2. acceleration has changed direction from down to up;
  3. Momentum also changed direction from down to up;
  4. AC 3 green bars signal has been triggered;


So 1 lot buy stop order placed above the rev.bar at 1.3576
another 1 lot buy stop order placed above AC signal bar 1.3588

stopLoss moved below the new DB at 1.3542

let's see what will be the future...

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  • Post #29
  • Quote
  • Apr 24, 2007 10:26am Apr 24, 2007 10:26am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
Yesterday setup is developing pretty well...

BL and 2nd DBar has been taken. I expect a fractal to apear soon and AO cross signal to fire...

Mean line 2 previous set BL orders has been fired...

Dramatic... This seems to be wave 5 candidate...
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  • Post #30
  • Quote
  • Apr 25, 2007 2:04am Apr 25, 2007 2:04am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
Setup from before yesterday (post #28) seems to turn to profit...

Here is current state - early morning

 

  1. The most recent up fractal has been taken in the night so 1 lot buy stop order has been fired.
  2. New fractal and AO cross signal apeared simultaniously in the night - new 4 lot buy stop order is placed at 1.3647 - above signals


I'm wondering about stop loss - whether I should move it up or leave it where it is...
The distance from the market is widening...

Above all we are in the zone so on each close that is above previous one I'll add more orders - but this is the future yet...

At present I have 12 open orders (last 2 lots) total: 13 lots showing a profit of 3 257.80 at current price 1.3637

let see what will be today

Good luck to all traders!

PS: I'll appreciate if anybody takes the plunge and comments the situation.
I'll appreciate any opitions and will consider them. The more the heads, the better the result

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  • Post #31
  • Quote
  • Apr 25, 2007 10:26am Apr 25, 2007 10:26am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
Some explanations about reverse bar (DBar)...

We have on previous H4 session a bearish reverse bar but we do not take it because the angle is not correct. Prices must go steeper than MSs. There was steep movement but it was before bearish DB formation. When this bar appeared prices were in parallel with MAs...

Well at the begining of US market session EURUSD trade is in a good state

No more orders have been placed because we have already 5 green AO bars and this up move will soon end...

So the only action is to move stop loss below the low of the last bar...
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  • Post #32
  • Quote
  • Apr 25, 2007 11:40am Apr 25, 2007 11:40am
  •  Miguel
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: High Achiever | 299 Posts
I love this type of trading! Just rated the thread - ***** stars for you!
 
 
  • Post #33
  • Quote
  • Apr 25, 2007 7:30pm Apr 25, 2007 7:30pm
  •  amaruenterprise
  • | Joined May 2006 | Status: Member | 282 Posts
Hi isto,
I really appreciate your thread. I just started trading this method after reading Bill's 2nd edition of Trading Chaos. It really helps to see how other traders trade this method. Have you read New Trading Dimensions by Bill also ? I have just ordered it and plan on doing some more reading over the weekend. I wish you well and look forward to following your thread. Keep up the great work !!!
 
 
  • Post #34
  • Quote
  • Apr 26, 2007 1:53am Apr 26, 2007 1:53am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
Thank you both Miguel and amaruenterprise
Quoting Miguel
Disliked
I love this type of trading! Just rated the thread - ***** stars for you!
Ignored
I already thought that nobody ever will post something ... Thank you for the positive attitude - it is something that always help.
Quoting amaruenterprise
Disliked
Hi isto,
I really appreciate your thread. I just started trading this method after reading Bill's 2nd edition of Trading Chaos. It really helps to see how other traders trade this method. Have you read New Trading Dimensions by Bill also ? I have just ordered it and plan on doing some more reading over the weekend. I wish you well and look forward to following your thread. Keep up the great work !!!
Ignored
First the questions - I've read all three books by Bill Williams, each one several times and I admire them for consistency and all these clear tight explanations of the signals, mothos of trade, etc.

I want to underline that I'm not a guru, neither have the key for wealth nor pretend to know where will be the price tomorrow or what will happen with any pair in the near or far future.

I've started this tread for three reasons:

  1. to master myselft and to learn by my mistakes
  2. to help my best anyone interested in trading this method
  3. to discute this particular method with others using it so as to improve my own knowledge and skills.


Trading is very fastinating way of life and I like it...

Wish you many profitable pips

 
 
  • Post #35
  • Quote
  • Apr 26, 2007 2:24am Apr 26, 2007 2:24am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
on the next day...

today's 1st chart is very doodle

At the end of US session yesterday I was 99% sure that I'll be blown away. I hesitated whether to close at least partially. This is the most painful part of the trade - when there are many signals and each one is in the opposite direction

Finally I left anything to the market for even if stop loss was hit, trade will be profitable - much less, but profitable.
In any case I placed a sell stop order below to the down Dbar in any case.

In contrary of last US session close at the begining of EU session there are many up signals....

So I'll keep stops tight and let's see what the maket wants...

(each trade day is described from post# 27 through post #31)
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  • Post #36
  • Quote
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:09am Apr 26, 2007 4:09am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
So here is the end of the story...

Stoploss has been triggered at 1.3633.
the result is:
13 open positions
one of them 2 lots and one 4 lots
9 profitable
4 loss
2 830 profit from this trade
because I didn't close when rules say I have to, almost 50% of the profit has gone

Let's see whether this is the top of the wave and how will be with down Dbar signal

as seen in the picture the angle between price and MAs could be analysed also another way (gray is old; white is new)

There is another Up fractal. I didn't place order above it because for now it seems that momentum is rather down than up and could turn a false entry point. On D1 base the momentum is 4 days down and on W1 acceleration is down, so it seems to me that a very strong impuls must appear to push prices up.
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #37
  • Quote
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:27am Apr 26, 2007 4:27am
  •  dlftrader
  • | Joined May 2006 | Status: Member | 36 Posts
I have been a Profitunity trader of one degree or another since 1999. I moved my trading focus from futures to the spot Forex in 2004. It is still my trading vehicle of choice for catching a strong trend and capturing profits far greater than the move itself... it has given me over 300% of a move on several occassions. As time permits me, I will be glad to share some of my experiences with using all or part of the Profitunity trading approach; but for now, these words of caution: Have very sound risk management rules (the Profitunity way doesn't give you much guidance here!); and if you are one that tends to play loose with risk management rules, Profitunity will probably frustrate you!

...\larry.bye
 
 
  • Post #38
  • Quote
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:39am Apr 26, 2007 4:39am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
Thank you for your post Larry,
Quoting dlftrader
Disliked
As time permits me, I will be glad to share some of my experiences with using all or part of the Profitunity trading approach;
Ignored
you'll are very welcome. The more experience shared, the more chance to improve skills.

Quoting dlftrader
Disliked
Have very sound risk management rules (the Profitunity way doesn't give you much guidance here!);
Ignored
I agree - and this is one of the most importent thing in trade but hard to apply - a sample is my previous post where a big part of the profit gone...
 
 
  • Post #39
  • Quote
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:50am Apr 26, 2007 7:50am
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
Quote
Disliked
The purple/pink like is SMA 5 (5 bar simple moving average) offset 3 into the future.
This is a new stop-loss. Two consecutive closes below/above the pink line is stop-loss, or place SL on the low/high of these, and if not triggered continue the trade.
________________________
* formating is mine

Bellow is a sample... Hope it is clear enough
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: ExitMA.gif
Size: 39 KB
 
 
  • Post #40
  • Quote
  • Apr 26, 2007 12:11pm Apr 26, 2007 12:11pm
  •  isto
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Forex Trader | 492 Posts
Expected though, price diving during last two H4 session surprised me.

Fortunately there were sell stop orders - 1 lot for each divergent bar. Currently both triggered.

At the begining of current H4 session another 2 lots sell stop order has been taken ...

Stop loss is set above previous bar high.

Interesting movment.

I've added the new exit line (described in post #39) to see how usefull it will be...

That's it.
Attached Image
 
 
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