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trublu's trading journal

Been awhile since I've posted here, was super busy last week and didn't have time to trade. I didn't trade today since it was a bank holiday in Europe but still seems there were some good trades. I've been looking over some stuff and researching some things in hopes of following the trend more and adding on trades. Looking forward for tomorrow to try out some new things and finally get back in the market and make some trades.

trublu
Quoting trublu
Been awhile since I've posted here, was super busy last week and didn't have time to trade. I didn't trade today since it was a bank holiday in Europe but still seems there were some good trades. I've been looking over some stuff and researching some things in hopes of following the trend more and adding on trades. Looking forward for tomorrow to try out some new things and finally get back in the market and make some trades.

trublu

Man, we always have to make time to trade.
Will be looking forward to your research and the things your going to add.

Jody
Quoting N2FX
Man, we always have to make time to trade.
Will be looking forward to your research and the things your going to add.

Jody
Thanks Jody, nothing special really that I'm looking to add. Fractal breakouts on the 5 min and longer time frames trying to ride the trend. I've worked with fractals before both reversal trades and breakouts and catching hl/lh's are usually a fractal trade but getting in one bar early and I figure if we're trending nicely might as well take more trades with the trend.


I'm sure you've seen me reading your thread, great trading you're doing over there. Still trying to figure out how you do it so well without any indicators, maybe I'll be there one day .

trublu
Quoting trublu
Thanks Jody, nothing special really that I'm looking to add. Fractal breakouts on the 5 min and longer time frames trying to ride the trend. I've worked with fractals before both reversal trades and breakouts and catching hl/lh's are usually a fractal trade but getting in one bar early and I figure if we're trending nicely might as well take more trades with the trend.


I'm sure you've seen me reading your thread, great trading you're doing over there. Still trying to figure out how you do it so well without any indicators, maybe I'll be there...
Just watch the price over and over, find some patterns/candles that form at the high/low areas, and take a few pips here and there, you'll do fine.

I am putting a system together with a couple indicators for those traders who like to have a little confirmation, hoping to help out if I can.

I have not traded fractals before, but I have a friend who does, he makes good with them.

Most of my trader friends are small time frame scalpers, I am more of the old fashion scalper who likes to take it conservatively.

Post some charts if possible, would like to see a set up.

J
Quoting N2FX
Just watch the price over and over, find some patterns/candles that form at the high/low areas, and take a few pips here and there, you'll do fine.

I am putting a system together with a couple indicators for those traders who like to have a little confirmation, hoping to help out if I can.

I have not traded fractals before, but I have a friend who does, he makes good with them.

Most of my trader friends are small time frame scalpers, I am more of the old fashion scalper who likes to take it conservatively.

Post some charts if possible, would...
Thanks for the tips Jody. For now I find it easier to trade hl/lh's with the overall trend and looking into breakouts as well. I like how you trade at the high/low levels with certain patterns, I need to work more on that.

Do you know how your friend trades the fractals? Always curious how other people use them.

The attached chart has the fractal indicator on it (black triangle things) as well as the fractal breakout indicator which is attached to this post. The idea is if there is an uptrend and you are taking hl trades, you can add on with breakout trades. The two highlighted bars are the trade entries because they are with the trend and breaking the high fractal breakout line. It's basically just 123 patterns except if you can get into a trend at the 2 and 3 entries you'll have move entries and can ride more of a trend. The hard part is when there is no trend and you can get stopped out for 2 entries instead of only one.

The hardest part, at least for me, is figuring out where to put your SL and TP levels. So adding fractal breakout trades on the 5min EU chart I posted was good for about 4 extra trades which all could have been winners or BE depending on how you set up TP and SL.

Hope that chart shows what I'm talking about, if not let me know and I'll put up more examples. Here's a thread where I looked into the matter before http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=164704, there are some good idea's in there from different people.

Hope this helps.

trublu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 5m.gif Size: 32 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FractalChannel(2).mq4   2 KB | 170 downloads
Do the fractals re-paint?

Checking the chart out, I have them on my 15 min chart EU and will observe them along with my indicators.

Never seen the channel before.

No, I don't know how my friend trades them, he tried to explain to me once, but I think I was confused then also.

J
Quoting N2FX
Do the fractals re-paint?

Checking the chart out, I have them on my 15 min chart EU and will observe them along with my indicators.

Never seen the channel before.

No, I don't know how my friend trades them, he tried to explain to me once, but I think I was confused then also.

J
It's kind of hard to explain how fractals are formed but in a word they do repaint if you don't wait for the formation to finish. The fractal is a 5 bar formation with the 3rd(middle) bar being the highest or lowest bar. So when the 5th bar closes the fractal indicator won't move. However if you're trading the 4th or 5th bar of the formation and the high or low of the 3rd bar gets taken out the fractal will disappear. So you have to wait for all 5 bars to close if you want to play the breakout but you can enter earlier if you play the reversal. Hope that makes some sense if not, it's not my fault, Zambrano just gave up a home run to Heyward and now the Cubs are down 6-3 in the first inning, not good.

trublu
Quoting trublu
It's kind of hard to explain how fractals are formed but in a word they do repaint if you don't wait for the formation to finish. The fractal is a 5 bar formation with the 3rd(middle) bar being the highest or lowest bar. So when the 5th bar closes the fractal indicator won't move. However if you're trading the 4th or 5th bar of the formation and the high or low of the 3rd bar gets taken out the fractal will disappear. So you have to wait for all 5 bars to close if you want to play the breakout but you can enter earlier if you play the reversal....
Makes sense, I remember now you brought it back to the forefront of my mind.
Your indicator did not download, but I found it on another web page.
Thanks
Quoting N2FX
Makes sense, I remember now you brought it back to the forefront of my mind.
Your indicator did not download, but I found it on another web page.
Thanks
Hmm sorry about the indicator not working, it downloaded fine for me, but as long as you found one it's all good. Let me know what you think about it after you check it out. I think it's a good way to follow the trend on the longer time frames, yet another thing I need to test and research.

trublu
Only took 3 trades today, -6 total. All 3 trades on EU, chart attached. First trade was at the arrow, LH which bounced off the 75 psych level. Moved SL to BE when I was up 9 and got stopped out at BE. The second trade is where the price label is 1.3362, it was a breakout of the fractal low (pink line), only went about 5 pips in my favor and then I got stopped out for -8. The last trade is the second price label, fractal breakout high right at the 75 psych level, was up 5 and saw price bounce of 30 ema and closed at +2. Also there was a very good PB LH trade on the EJ that I missed because I was entering the first EU trade.

I missed the first LH right after NY open as well as 2 earlier fractal breakout trades. After the first hour of the session price is ranging so no further trades. So using my system the right way there were plenty of pips to be had I just missed a lot of trades, seems to happen way too often.

I'm going to keep my computer on and check the charts periodically while I watch some soccer in about and hour and a half, UEFA champions league, should be some good matches.

trublu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 5m.gif Size: 28 KB
I was busy for the first hour and half or so at new york open so I missed some good early trades. After that I only took 3 trades. The first was a fractal breakout long on the 5m GU and the second was the basically the same trade except on EU. They both ended up as losses, GU was up around 10 at one point but I let it run and got stopped out for -10, EU went against me right away and hit my stop for -13.

My last trade of the day was a HL on GU which took a while to get going but it went up and I set a trailing stop on it and closed it out for +25. After the first hour of NY, price never closed below the 34ema on GU so longs were in play. There were good HL and breakout opportunities that I missed.

One thing I need to figure out is where to put the stop on breakouts. I usually am using the last swing point but that makes large stops, however if you did that today, you'd have 5 or 6 winners and could have rode the trend up almost 60 pips depending where you entered.

Another thing I need to figure out is either to close out with smaller profits around 10/15 or try to get in a trend and ride it for some big winners.

trublu
I didn't take any trades today because I was looking at higher time frame stuff. Obviously picked a bad day to skip, little bit of chop right at NY open but then solid up trends on all 3 pairs. Won't be able to trade as much tomorrow, I need to step my trading up, missing too many good trades, must work on discipline.

trublu
Terrible trading today, lost around 35ish I think, didn't add it up. Frustrating as usual, these bad days sure do get annoying.

trublu
Quoting trublu
Terrible trading today, lost around 35ish I think, didn't add it up. Frustrating as usual, these bad days sure do get annoying.

trublu
Your being cautious it looks like, 35 pips loss is not super bad, the key is learning from those losses, and putting a sharp image in your mind how it happened.

I have figured out in my scalping system, that when I see certain patterns form, I know to enter a trade, and when a failure pattern forms while in a trade, I graciously exit with as small loss as possible.

I have had days when I have lost 3,000.00 and those get you thinking, hmmm, maybe I am doing this wrong.

Keep your head up, and keep posting, I will be following along with you.

Cheers, J
Quoting N2FX
Your being cautious it looks like, 35 pips loss is not super bad, the key is learning from those losses, and putting a sharp image in your mind how it happened.

I have figured out in my scalping system, that when I see certain patterns form, I know to enter a trade, and when a failure pattern forms while in a trade, I graciously exit with as small loss as possible.

I have had days when I have lost 3,000.00 and those get you thinking, hmmm, maybe I am doing this wrong.

Keep your head up, and keep posting, I will be following along with you.

Cheers,...
Thanks J, I know losses happen in trading a lot and yesterday was just another one of those days. I'm still trying to figure out how you and BigDawg trade like you do, definitely going to be following your thread as often as I can. I need to work on forgetting about losses and get my emotions in check, it's something I've said before on here but it's harder to do than it seems.

trublu
Today was sort of better but only took 2 trades, one out at BE and one out at -14, don't trade right into a round number. Looked at some things a little differently and I'm going to do some back tests and research later today after I take a break and eat some food, overall definitely in a better mood and state of mind than I was yesterday.

trublu
Hi trublu,
got any pictures (of your trades that is... )
Quoting Royston
Hi trublu,
got any pictures (of your trades that is... )
Sure no problem, attached are the charts and I've shown a couple of other possibilities that I should have taken but I didn't. The first chart is the EJ 5 min it was a LH where the arrow is. The trade only went about 4 pips in my direction (after spread) so I didn't move my SL to BE even though I should have or at least closed out with a small loss since price was trading right into the round number and the S2 pivot line. I thought about not taking the trade because of the lines but I still did, need to work on getting out of a trade with a smaller loss instead of a large one.

As you can see to the left after NY open there were a couple of LH's that I missed as well as a nice PB right after the trade I took. Had I got out at BE or a small loss I think I would have taken the PB but since I took a full loss I wasn't confident and to be honest was afraid of losing another trade.

I've attached 2 EU charts just because I was looking at the black chart when I actually made the entry and the other is my standard chart just to show what it looked like there.

So the first chart (black one) is the chart I used to enter, got short at the yellow arrow. Was actually up 15 and price came back to stop me out at +1. I keep trying to go for the big trade when the truth is if I'd just take all the proper setups and get 10-15 per trade I could easily average 20 pips as a very conservative estimate.

On the silver EU chart the first 2 arrows are previous potential LH entries. I saw the first one form but price was still above the MA's and they were slanting up. However the real reason I didn't take it was because it's still considered a higher low from the up move so maybe I should have taken a fractal breakout short when I saw the HL wasn't respected and price didn't move up.

I missed the second LH forming, I think I was looking at other charts. And I didn't play the last arrow very well so a total of -13 on the day instead of +20 or more. Hope that all makes sense and sorry for the late reply, wasn't at the computer. Feel free to post any charts or questions you have.

trublu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej 5m.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 5m2.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 5m.gif Size: 30 KB
Hi trublu,

thanks for putting up the charts.

When I asked Vantage where his targets were, he said it was the previous peak of the swing or similar near key level points, (pivots etc)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=636
Now, he is going to try out an additional profit strategy, pyramiding in on days that have the right kind of trending criteria, but his core style was about taking targets and not letting anything get away.

Think of it like this. Winning means overall the amount you win is bigger than the amount you lose.
Total won > total lost
Total won = (1) average percentage of winners x (2) average amount won
Total lost = (3) average percentage of losers x (4) average amount lost
There are 4 variables to play with there, marked 1 2 3 4 . You don't need big winners to be a big winner. Watching Jody trading his winners can be very small, but his average % of winners is very high. It is a myth that you need to "catch the big one". Here is what he said yesterday >> "I don't mind losing, but I refuse to let them have more then I am trying to make. I had 6 pips on that trade for my goal, so I will give them 6 pips max, when we do that, we win big time in the end." << That made me laugh. Notice that you need to have a target to have the option of thinking like that.

But other people trade the opposite way, a lot of small losers, and then BAAM!, the big winner. But the truth is, it doesn't matter which way you trade as long as you come out on the right side of the equation.

But you are right, having the first trade close at a full loss is a bummer. If it has the effect of stopping you trade, you have 2 choices. Either harden up your mind set and thicken your skin so you don't mind the loss, or maybe adjust your trading to try to avoid that. Maybe trail down behind the 1 min bars, or every second one minute bar, until a high is taken out or you get to your target. If it runs, great, if not, then there is something in the bank. Watching the experienced traders doing Frankfurt Open and London Open, I notice they are always banking and looking for the next opportunity. I doubt they would contemplate going for a runner unless they already had something in the bank, a cushion for the start of the day.

Otherwise, I think it comes down to experience, and the only way of getting that is to get a lot of exposure to the patterns, and the way price moves. If price moves in the right way, then no round number or S2 pivot lines are going to stop it. The shorter time frames give you much more exposure, you just have to make sure you can stay alive in such fast flowing waters using good money management.

PS.
I am finding the Mt4 order entry and adjustment procedure very clunky and have been investigating using scripts. I wanted a much simpler way of altering stops and take profit levels than opening the order ticket. I adjusted a TrailingStops script I found (not that I am a programmer, lol...). Once a trade has opened, and the script is placed on the chart, it puts a red line on the chart for the stop, and a blue line for the take profit. When price hits either line, a Close at Market order is sent to the server for that trade. This is much faster and simpler than opening the order ticket every 3 or 4 minutes. I have given it a Hot Key on my platform, so once the trade is opened, I press Control+8, and the lines appear on my chart. Then just drag them as price progresses. Having a tangible Take Profit level appear on your chart might make it easier to take that profit at 10 or 15 pips. See what you think..
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 TrailingLinesv2-50 stop roy 01.mq4   5 KB | 163 downloads
Quoting Royston
Hi trublu,

thanks for putting up the charts.

When I asked Vantage where his targets were, he said it was the previous peak of the swing or similar near key level points, (pivots etc)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=636
Now, he is going to try out an additional profit strategy, pyramiding in on days that have the right kind of trending criteria, but his core style was about taking targets and not letting anything get away....
Thank you for your respons and suggestions Royston, I really appreciate it. I remember Vantage talking about pyramiding in on the good trend days, something I should try. I've also been watching Jody trade, pretty amazing trader, still not sure how he does but I do like how taking the small winners add up over time. So now the question is go for big winners or a lot of small ones, ideally would be open 2 trades and close one where I normally would and let the 2nd trail with stop at BE or something like that.

Thanks for the indicator, I'll check it out. I am really thinking of switching all my trading to Oanda once I start winning consistently. Their charts suck but easier to open limit orders and the spreads are a lot better than IBFX. I've used Oanda before on longer time frame stuff and just used MT4 for the charts, worked fine then so don't see why it wouldn't work fine for the 5 min.

trublu
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