Delta Phenomenon

I actually just came across this DELTA phenomenon thing by accident and was kind of impressed with all the review on the society's site and also being a Wilders fan went ahead and ordered the book without doing my due deligence coming to the factory to get more info. O well, I'll read and find out for myself.

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juxta14:

I would appreciate it if you stayed in touch after you have received the book and share your thoughts and opinions.

Like I said: when I first received the book I thought to myself 'Whaaaaaat???' and put it aside but, like I said, now that I have 'coded' all of Mr Wilders other systems into my trading platform my trades are pretty much looking after themselves (profitably for a change I might add) so I hauled out 'ye olde Delta Phenomenon' and started actually plotting the lines on the charts and I was quite taken aback myself. I do really think that it is something that would take a good while to master (if you're going to trade using it as your sole 'system') but if you're just going to use the 'concept' to get the general (future) market direction at any given point then that could 'ease things' a little.

I'll tell you this though: the more I study Mr Wilder's works and 'pull apart' and use his indicators trading systems and really try to get to know the thought processes and logic behind his ideas and theories the more I respect the man i.e. 'sheer genius' in my opinion so why should 'The Delta Phenomenon' be any different?

Everyone how is interested in predicting the future had better be real careful useing Delta on its own as it is like making a shoe that fits everyone. Sometimes it will work to the day and other times you will trip and fall, right into a pile of s***. But I am now definately into predicting market movements, yes the markets are not random, they can be predicted, you will not know if your predictions are right, but stops will save your bacon.

Hurst was onto something, fourier transformation is ugly looking mathematics, which basically works on the principle "wave, within waves", predict the little ones and you can work up to the daddys. Now waves in the market do not follow perfect sine waves, instead the wave modulate together to form the price patterns we see. However, it should be possible to extract the componants of the modulated wave to give you the wave cycles within the market.

Having said that if you trade delta, then use options as your risk will be predetermined in advance so if the market moves against you for a few days more you will not get hurt. If the market then reverses well you will be holding a packet and your risk is predetermined.

What I have found works to a large extent is pattern trading, butterflys, bats, crabs. I would say they are about 65-70% accurate, but you have to use the right stops otherwise you will be flatterned. So patterns can predict price moves, maybe in conjunction with delta you can sharpen it up to the day.

Anyone interested in pattern trading, price harmonic, pm me and lets see if we can work out a way to crack these markets.

Smalldog2

Hey smalldog2,

Thanks for that input. I'll PM you after I finish this post because I'm now very keen to 'free my mind' as it were and this is something totally 'way out there' for someone like me (I'm one of those people who has always thought that things like astrology was a 'pile of sh*t'!!! Until now that is!!! If 'The Delta Phenomenon' has merit then it opens up a whole new world of learning and possibilities: a sort of a 'paradigm' shift).

I state the above because I found that I HAVE TO trade within very 'strict' and 'rigid' parameters (like what is afforded me by Wilder's other systems) i.e. direction to trade, placement of stops, and when to TP, all calculated mathematically, and nothing left to my imagination or my own interpretation of the markets (as this has always gotten me into trouble).

However: when I had a look (again) at 'The Delta Phenomenon' it sure does seem to have merit (and I have only just started 'scratching the surface'). Would I feel comfortable trading it as my only system: no, well at least not yet, but if it can, for now, 'validate' Wilder's other systems and make them even more precise and accurate, then it's worth the effort and the journey.

Anyway: I have not even HEARD of the things you are talking about (I think the closest I've come to anything like this is 'Fractal Geometry' and 'Chaos Theory' as detailed or explained by Bill Williams).

Thanks for the message, will PM you now.

Fintrans, thanks for that great post of yours, whatever the case may be I think Mr Wilder is definetly up to something looking at his track record, but of course different strokes for different folks we all kind of look at things a bit differently that's what makes the world go round.

I'm quite positive and will surely combine it with other strategies cos I know it will be a very lenghty learning curve right there and for sure will keep in touch.

BTW am also considering getting "The New concepts In Technical Trading Systems", I believe that will definetly be worth my while...eh Fintrans from your testimony??

Also Smalldog2,

I think you are now becoming a forex prophet from your Dow predictions above, I heard the news over the TV and immediately after I found myself reading this tread for the very first time yesterday. I am a strong believer that nothing just happens for the sake of it but everything happens for a specific reason.

cheers

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Thanks for the post.

Can I recommend 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems'???

Most certainly. It's turned my trading around for good (and that after thousands of USD of losses last year)!!! The 'shameful' thing is that I bought the book at the beginning of last year, 'tried the systems' made some profit, but because it became too time consuming to 'work' the systems on a daily basis (and I tried to trade too many instruments at once with them) I stopped using them and everything went pretty much 'pear shaped' from there except for the occasional 'windfall'!!! I've coded all the systems into my trading platform now so it's 'quick and easy' to 'read' them each day, open positions or place orders, and then let the market take care of my trades (while I 'study' 'The Delta Phenomenon')!!!

I told him one da "always go against what the majority of the people think, because people are most always wrong". We were watching a football game at the time, relating it to the spreads on sporting events. Well to cut the story short he worked for one of the biggest bookies in the state. We didnt go by how much $ was bet on each team, but how many people picked this team and how many picked the other team against the spread. Needless to say placed wagers, with another book of course, for the team that the fewest amount of people picked with the big book. (you need info from a big bookie to get a better view of the population). Won HUGE for over two years, till his bookie boss died.

Nice trading

Fintrans,

Thanks for the heads up. You are the man.

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Hello Rogue$Trader (nice avatar),

Thanks for the post (I think i.e. not quite sure what you're trying to say or rather how it pertains to this thread).

OK - well - for fun - I make this 'prediction':

The Dow will begin a rally to the upside on Tuesday (give or take a day either way).

If I'm right (which I'm pretty sure I am) then I'll post the basis of my above 'prediction'. If I'm wrong: sorry (I should become and TV analyst)!!!

Hello Fintrans. I believe what brought me to share the story was this from a post by Currencytech that said "Do what everyone else does and U will lose." Sorry if it was to much of the thread topic. That line in Currencytech's post gave me something to contribute, in a way out way I guess, LOL. Into reading the thread to much I guess, its about something I dont know much about. For this thread will look further.

Interesting thread.

No problem. I was just worried that I was 'missing something'!!!

Anyway, at the risk of getting 'egg' on my face on Tuesday, let me tell you that I make my 'prediction' based purely on my first 'real reading' of 'The Delta Phenomenon'.

The reason I state the above tonight is because I don't want anyone turning around on Wednesday or Thursday telling me that it was SO obvious that the Dow was going to 'turn around' next week that you did not need 'The Delta Phenomenon' to 'predict' such and event. I have only now, today, sat down and had a look at the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P, and I can see that (forgetting about 'The Delta Phenomenon' for a minute) all the indicators that I normally would use are also telling me the same thing i.e. RSI, ADX, Parabolic SAR (all 'Wilder' of course) and Stochastics not to mention the 'whopper' of an interest rate cut coming up and notwithstanding the fact that I monitor the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P ALL DAY EVERY DAY and I'm getting a 'feel' for what happens to them. Is this JUST a coeincidence? I do not know. The frightening part is if the Dow 'falls through the floor' next week it will only serve to 'back up' 'The Delta Phenomenon' for the simple reason that the indicators can be wrong but the market could 'invert' as per 'The Delta Phenomenon'. I for one am hoping that BOTH are right i.e. I don't like see the Dow where it is right now!!!

With regard to forex.

I spent a lot of time trying find the turning points for the Eur/Usd, without success. I know of another trader who used Miner's Dynamic Trading chart package plus Delta with some success. Although I really like Miner's work, his charting software was well out of my budget. Eventually I still could not find the correlation.

I believe there is a web site that claims to have found the cycles for many single currencies, then puts them together ie Eur/Usd to find the harmonics that work for the pair. Once again .. out of my budget.

Since then I left DP on hold. I also changed brokers, and now have the ability to trade gold. The revitalization of this thread has given me inspiration to look seriously into that.

Those interested in market cycles, may want to check out Akuma99 on this Forum. He has a site called BeginnerTrader.com Which is Extremely Friendly to Lunar, Planetary, Gann, Hurst and other ideas. Many traders from this Forum post there. on that Forum... click on the Forum button once at the site.

I am going to be checking out the cycle in gold for a few months.

Lou

Hey Lou,

Thanks for the post. I am also very glad to see some interest in 'The Delta Phenomenon' (again) here.

Look - like I said before - I've only just 'scratched' the surface - so I'm a VERY long way away from seeing the turning points etc. etc. etc. At the moment I'm just working on the 'premise' that there is at least 'something' to 'The Delta Phenomenon' 'broadly speaking' and if it backs up Mr Wilder's other systems that I'm trading with i.e. makes them even more 'sure' then that would be enough for me right now e.g. if one of his systems from 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' is telling me on Tuesday night to go long the Dow AND 'The Delta Phenomenon' is telling me that there is a high probability that going long the Dow during that period is the right direction to be trading in then that will be fanstastic although I will really 'get into' 'The Delta Phenomenon' but it's going to take some time I think i.e. as easy as Mr Wilder makes it out to be I don't think it's something that's just going to be a 'walk in the park' to grasp and understand.

Regards,

Dale.

Well according to my crab pattern we are going to see the DJIA turn on the 22nd and my price prediction is 11967,if I am right the move will last until the 4th Feb and potentially targets could be12966 or 12750.

A nice 900 point ride potentially for a 20 point stop.

Lets see where this unpredictible market goes to.

Smalldog

All my predictions are my views on the market, according to my analysis. I post all my predictions on a basis of scientific enlightenment. I do not suggest you trade them unless you have made up your own mind. Following a smalldog around is foolish and could get you arrested!

Trading will skin you faster than a bunny at a pigmy party, so do not do anything that you have not checked out 100% yourself. This is my opinion and therefore does not imply financial advice and I am not liable for any losses incurred as a result of any individual(s) acting on said opinion.

Smalldog2

Hi, Smalldog2(). I read u talking abt price patterns like crab, bat etc. Can u point me in the direction where i can read more abt them. ur input will be appreciated. Thanx.

I commented on this earlier in this thread.

....a few more thoughts.

Someone said earlier that this looks great on a chart but trading it is not so easy. I tend to agree.

I did if fact spend the 3500 smackers years ago to join the "Society". I came across a copy of "Commodities"....(now Futures) magazine with the Delta ad while perusing the stacks in the library at the Univ of Houston.....thought I had found the HG!

Well....like any other indicator, sometimes Delta looks great and at times.....you had to get very creative to justify the sequence.

Mind you, I'm not saying the concept behind Delta is not valid. Just that because of the latitude afforded on either side of the "turning point" day, plus the idea of inversions......it's just real tough to be sure until after the fact. Even the monthly newsletter that Wilder sent out with turning point calls was often subject to correction and change.....a lot of subjectivity with this method.

I lost money trying to trade this exclusively.....this was my "intro" system into futures trading. Perhaps as another filter, it may have value today.

Having said all of the above, I would be glad to take a look at the "delta solution" for any of the FX pairs if someone works something out and is willing to share. Think I'll see if i can dig out the old newsletters if I can find them. I did have the "cycles" for the GBP, SF and USD.

Hmmmm....might be interesting to look at again in light of what I am now looking at for FX trading.

I am currently trading Phlllip Nel's 4 Hour strategy - but will also be adding a breakout entry using Delta as the direction filter when market is in a consolidation like the current EURUSD breakout. I want to capture valid breakouts without having to wait for retracement as many times a retrace does not occur.

Here is the EURUSD solution if you want to play with it.

11 points - Jan 22, 2008 is a green line

1 : O10
2 : G-3
3 : G6
4 : G15
5 : R-5
6 : R4
7 : R9
8 : B-7
9 : B1
10 : B7
11 : B16

G-3 means 3 bars before green line

The EUR is on its way down to point3 near the end of this week. Delta is difficult to use but if you understand price action along with S/R Delta can be used a a direction filter - again I first identify a consolidation like currently in the EUR just before breakout - pirce action has already told me that a down move is more likely but Delta confirms it as the next turning point is the end of this week give or take a few days. Delta by itself is useless.

Thanks Maxster.

As you mention, I can see that there would be certain "obvious" situations where you could use this as a directional filter. Something else to play with now.....

High everyone,

Brunite: I agree with you (well for the moment anyway) i.e. if at very least you can use 'The Delta Phenomenon' as a directional filter / confirmation of direction for whatever other system you're trading with then that's a very good start is it not!

Having said that I'd really like to be able to (as accurately as possible) be able to plot the turning points. There are two things that I'm not 'getting' though:

1 - How do you determine which is the first point i.e. the '1'? When starting out do you just assume that where the most significant low point occurs then that is the first point i.e. the '1' as long as it is the first point on either side of a colored line?

and

2 - I know that weekends are to be included but I know I certainly don't get a 'Saturday' bar (but I'm 'lucky' to have a broker that does not give 'Sunday bars' either) so when you have a 'date' (let's assume you're working 'backwards') would you sort of 'subtract' a day for every Saturday that falls between the dates (I'm talking about 'Intermediate Term Delta' i.e. IDT here)?

As I said earlier: I'm only just starting to 'open my mind here' but I can tell you that (even not knowing how to handle the above) when you draw the colored lines on any chart and 'compare' what happened in the corresponding 'historical' periods it is just far too 'accurate' for it to be 'dismissed out of hand'. As far as plotting and trading off the turning points is concerned I'm not 'sold on the idea' year but, again, as a 'general confirmation of a future direction' I think there is merit for sure.

As a matter of interest has anybody bought the software? What I found very interesting is that on the 'demo' I see 'good 'ol Parabolic SAR' (also Wilder for those of you who did not know).

Dale.