Delta Phenomenon

i am interseted in this Delta Phenomenon however i can't seem to get a decent un biased opnion on this subject.

i would appreciate the assistance.......

cheers.....

Welles paid a cool million cash in advance for the idea from a bloak in Chicago. He then sold directorships for 35 grand ea.

Now, u can get most of the info for substantially less.

4xisez gave an opinion and it appears it is immediately labeled as biased. I see good points and weak points in the idea/method.

Do what everyone else does and U will lose. Not many toy with Delta due to its cost. You will learn something from the Delta experience. How much is up to you. It has an inversion factor/sequence that has not been mastered or well understood.
Maybe U could master that portion of it, along with mastering direction of the turning points as oppossed to trying to identify turns without the understandement of the impending direction when it does turn.

Nothing great comes easy, or it wouldn't be great.

I totally agree, however the issue is not really the $175.00 but the weeks if not months one may have to spend just to get comfortable with it. This by the end of the process may be just a waist of time as the delta phenomenuim could be really nothing but a recurring coincidence that no one can actually use with a good accuracy rate.

yes, obviously a waist of time....

Oh well the search continues.......

This may be unbiased. It's an autobiography of the website owner with references to Delta.



Diary of a Trading Loser

That's the title he used. It's not mine.

I bought the book about ten years ago. I read it several times and frankly, while there may be something in the theory, finding a practical application for it is impossible. To make sense of it everything has to be viewed in hindsight, alot like Elliot waves. If you're like me you'll pay $175 and then feel like you have to use it. If you do manage to figure it out, you'll have come to the conclusion, that in all reality, it does not improve your odds one bit. At best its still only 50/50. Welles Wilder has made some important contributions to the field technical analysis but this is not one of them.

Regards,
Steve

i have had more than just the book for the last ten years and i agree. jim

James,
I'm embarrassed to tell reveal this but, to add insult to injury, I also bought
"The Adam Theory". !!!!

Shamefully,
Steve

geez, i have often wondered if i was the only one. guess not.

OK, so this is a serriously old thread, but i luv this place. I was doing a google search/study on the DP and then said; "Duh, why not do a search at FF?", and here in one simple read i see all i need to know...Jim's frank and believeable take on it all. Thanks Jim, and Steve : ) (yes i posted elsewhere at an existing thread on it before seeing this thread).

Cheers,
Thom

as a post edit. I've decided that for consistency in my personality/way of the heart... that i will do a bit of study on my own since i'm curious...may not come to any practical application for me, but if i don't at least dig a bit deeper i won't be true to myself.

Having applied Delta to my trading and lost 17,000 over the course of a year and one year of my life moving turning points around a chart I have to say it is rubbish.

Or is it? I went to a seminar and ended up talking to an ex trader who had worked in the city and he told me he bought Delta and applied it to share trading and was making 50K per week. I was convinced, a friend and I bought the whole package between us and set about, plotting all the time frames on our little charts in metastock (bought on another recommendation). We spent a weekend looking at the CD and then with not a care in the world and two maxed out credit cards I was buying cotton copper you name it if it had the sniff of a turning point I sold it, bought it.

Money management, ha thats for the people that do not know the secrets of the turning points. Splendid work, cleared me out faster than a rabbit with skates going down a steep hill attached to a rocket powered sled.

Fast forward one year on, what have I learned. Well I sold my flat at the peak of the market, I predicted the slow down in the world stock markets, told all my mates that the crash was comming. I know that Steve Copen often gets it wrong and yes he does loose money. Trader Tom also uses Delta and he is often right and often wrong!

However, I know that it works sometimes, but not all the time I also know that you use very small stops to trade typically 20pts on 5-6 days trades, yes I can pick tops in the market and bottoms as well to within 20 points. The trouble is even with Steve Copens Delta CD you will have no idea is the point you predict correct or not. Sometimes it's late sometimes its early so I would conclude that its predictive ability is not that hot.

But, the markets do have cycles and these cycles are not over trading days they are over calender days! Forget trying to predict cycles if you do not include weekends.

Ok just to show I have faith I will now predict that the DJIA will turn down between the 11th or 12th of December the prices to keep your eyes on are 13,945. I have no idea if this will be it, but hey lets see.

Ok, Now I am confused... Do you now like Wilder's Phenomenon, or do you think it is bunk. I have the book, I inherited thing from a relative. Did you like the CD and other stuff?

I thought it was interesting, but just like drawing lines on a chart, I could find a turning point any sequence I decided to use. I think we humans are extraordinary at seeking out patterns in the world around us. Maybe not such a good thing though if there really is no pattern, just perception.

I have studied both Delta Phenomenon and Market Matrix, think mapping time by delta and fib sequences and projecting price levels via fib extensions and retracements. The Matrix studies I felt were very orchestrated in the course. While I could never really get it to a point that it was leading or felt comfortable trading the signals, I have had some luck just using timing derived from the full or new moon. And I know a couple of traders that use Delta successfully.

But I would recommend that you view timing from lunar studies as time points or times for a change in market conditions, it could be reversal, or acceleration, or from movement to consolidation. And you should look for price to support your time point before entering, some sort of price action pattern that conforms to your view.

I you believe that celestial objects influence the timing of nature, as we can see in tides and fish and wildlife activity increasing around full and new moons, it’s not hard to believe that we are influenced to some degree too. If this is a tradeable edge, is left open for debate.

I tried trading this years ago and I hate to think about the $ lost.

This theory is all about predicting tops and bottoms. Like most any indicator, it looks great in hindsight as you can apply each turning point to the nearest high/low. Problem is, of course, you never know this in real time, only after the fact.

Even further making this worthless is the fact that Wilder also allows for "inversions" at the beginning of each new sequence; thus allowing for the reverse of each series of high/low points!!

Like I said; you can rationalize this all nicely after the fact, but that doesn't help you in real time. Trading with Delta is a lot like looking at an MT4 indicator that "repaints".

Lastly.....please note that Jim Sloman (the guy Wilder paid for this) is now promoting some new theory (check Google) after he "sold" DELTA to Wilder. So.....even he must think it is not that reliable!

And.....yeah.....I bought his Adam Theory book as well.......junk!!

Well finger in the wind and if the turn occurs tommorrow then I have narrowed it down to two prices, these are 13849 and 13990. The trouble with delta and predicting price is that sometimes the predicted price is the close of the day, the market may go through the predicted values that does not matter. But if it turns tommorrow then the close must not be greater than these two value.

Hey ho, it maybe, but nothing is sure with this method, so please if you were looking to trade it don't... this info is just to get the ball rolling on can the market be predicted.

In reply to my last post I was some 50 points short of the top of the market but the time prediction was fairly good. One of the reasons I lost so much money trying to trade this system is due to setting my stops to close to the market.

If you are day trading on a 15min graph you can use 10 point stops as your targets are in the smaller time frame. Trading over days involves stops of 50 points.

Now on the back of my last prediction, here is then next predicted point for the DJIA movement in the short term 13,799 is the high and the market is now on a move lower, the time period I have for the turn is 29th Dec 2007.

So the Dow will not go higher than 13,799 (the high of the 11th Dec 07) and the price it hit will be lower than 12754, in effect I am predicting a fall in the DOW by 29th of December in the order of 700 points.

Smalldog2

I am not a great fan of directional strategies but if you want to use Delta to predict a market direction you will also need to apply the Gartley Pattern together with it. When both of them produce a signal it is usually quite reliable.

Ok according to my time cycle analysis the DJIA will bounce today and it will be a short term correction to the fall of the last couple of days, where it goes I have no idea, but it will move up until the 18th of Jan, my guess for price would be 13571. After than a move lower than the low of today.

Smalldog

I'm curious.

I (now) trade exclusively using Wilder's systems detailed in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' and they work (almost) perfectly for me (I'm just very sorry that I never tried to master these systems earlier but that's another discussion on it's own).

Anyway, being a 'Wilder fan' I bought 'The Delta Phenomenon' and when I first received it I thought he had 'lost it' i.e. talking about the moon and the earth and the tides and stuff like that i.e. all 'mumbo jumbo' to me ESPECIALLY when compared to the absolute 'brilliance' of all his other work. Needless to say I sort of 'glanced over the chapters' LOOKING for something 'technical' in nature (like the stuff in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems') and when I did not find what I just 'assumed' would be detailed in the book i.e. a 'new and improved technical trading system' I put the book 'one side'.

AND HERE'S THE BUT (AND IT'S A VERY BIG ONE):

Now that my trades have been pretty much 'looking after themselves' I got bored and started to take another look at 'The Delta Phenomenon' and from what I see 'it certainly ain't mumbo jumbo'!!! I just looked at the 'Intermediate Term Delta' ('IDT'), pulled up a couple of daily charts and drew the lines on the charts and I can tell you that it just 'jumped out at me' i.e. there IS a pattern for sure, maybe not to the day (and he does say that it's not 'accurate' to a day) but certainly to within a day or two or three. I looked at the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Gold and there certainly is a pattern which is so obvious it's 'uncanny'.

Do I have enough faith (at this point) to trade it? No BUT from what I can see if you (at first anyway) just used the ITD as a 'guide' or 'backup' for whatever other system you may be using then you are certainly (in my opinion) getting a 'heads up' on the 'current future' (if that makes any sense) direction of the market.

I am going to 'wear this book out' now (the same as I have done with 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems') and 'delve deeper' into this (I unfortuanately cannot afford the costs associated with belonging to 'The Delta Society') BUT understanding 'The Delta Phenomenon' MAY just enable me to afford said costs!!!

Anybody got some more opinions on this? Anybody taking 'The Delta Phenomenon' into account when trading i.e. not necessarily looking for and basing trades on the turning points?

Edit:

By the way smalldog2: I just pulled up the Dow and I don't know if you've been looking at the IDT BUT do you have an idea just how 'accurate' your last prediction is / was??? Take a look see!!! The Dow DID bounce (on the 9th) and what's more it has today and tomorrow to go up (not sure if it's going to get anywhere near 13000 BUT I sure reckon it's going to go up today and tomorrow according anyway to MY interpretation of the IDT). Actually, according to MY interpretation of the IDT it should move up and range for a couple of days before a good strong leg up!!! And what's more: think of the coming Fed rate cut!!! Coeincidence??? Let's see!!! Looks like Mr Wilder has 'come through for me' yet again!!!

Dale.