Gregam1128 eu trading style using usd/chf

This will be my daily weekly and monthly trading analysis. Some of the other forums have gotten much to hypocritical for my stomach to endure. It seems some can go on for pages at a time off topic during major trade sessions and it is to be ok and accepted, while these same individuals lamblast others for wasting the same amount of thread space. I will start this off as if it were a journal, however I will be trading multiple pairs so I will not call it a journal, but instead just thinking out loud.
My trading style is very simple. I use multiple time frames, and volume spread analysis. I'm trying to determine where there are large trader positioning. I can tell that by the candlestick opening and closings. Next I'm using price action. Where have we had the most activity in regards to support and resistance. Which s/r has been the strongest and how many times have they been visited. Lastly, although I may trade on a daily basis, my overall trade bias is monthly. I'm using fundamentals to help along with the other analysis to give me some idea of what the monthly trend will be. I generally trade with the monthly trend. That being said, I'm sure I have missed a couple of things but I will addresses them accordingly. All are welcome, But I muss say, any post begging for entry points with out contributing their own analysis will be blocked. If we can't be positive about things, no need to even waste all of our time.

Here is my long term analysis of the eu. Per my chart, the 1 minute. Noise. the 4 hr shows good resistance in the 2935ish range. October ended @ 2730 range, then November took it 100 pips lower to end in the 2630-40 range. December retraced from there and showed good support because we all know what December did. We then have Jan back down to the 2790ish range, and I am looking for this month to be a mirror of Nov, and complete the drop to the 2630ish range. On our weekly we have the Macd about to cross, and 7 weekly bars hanging out in the 2500ish area. Back to the monthly for a second. We know there generally is correlation between the Eu and the USD/CHF. Well looking at the monthly USD/CHF I see no resistance until we get to the 2130ish area I also notice the true beast (GBP/YEN) Is headed North on the monthly but if you follow the trend, and take in consideration that the stimulus has not had quite the impact of expectancy, you can assume a trend continuation here. Probably will test new lows before sky rocketing back up for the month of march.

That is my monthly analysis to date, subject to change accordingly. Have a good trading Month.

I use Bollinger bands to determine an entry point Daily pivot to compare support and resistance levels with price action. On the 5m chart below I am looking for the usd/chf to bounce from the middle bollinger band, and head up until we get to the daily pivot. This inturns is helping to confirm my down momentum for the eu. Eu also is in the area of the middle bollinger band. I don't hold a lot of weight in the Bollinger's , but I have found that they generally give me better entry points if I enter as close to the lines as possible.

If the usd/chf daily pivot can hold as support here, the eu will be rejected from the middle bollinger .

Critical area for the eu this is a 4hr chart

If we can break the daily pivot, it should be smooth sailing to 2775, which also happens to be 20 pips from the daily support 1

Something to consider is the gbp/yen daily. I have noticed that when the eu is on a roll, the beast is generally in the same direction. Although i am currently short on this monster, I am expecting a possible large draw down. The chart below shows 2 possible areas that it may touch before The short continuation. Not expecting a huge bull run in this pair until march. if it does reach the circled levels, I will take on another short.

To clarify when I say break, I am talking about a new bar opening past the breaking point. That is a clean break per my definition. and any cross will have become the opposite. Support or Resistance

I have noticed that important s/r lines that may appear on the usd/chf charts are not always at the same area's on eu charts. Just something to point out.

Here is something else interesting. You can clearly see that on this 4hr chart there was strong selling pressure in the 5th bar from the right. The large bull bar. the bull bar following has dominant buying pressure. The bar following that one also has dominant buying pressure, yet it ended as a bear bar. It also seems to have run smack dab into a wall of resistance, which has been a good resistance area for some time. The following bear bar is all selling pressure, followed by the current bar we are seeing. Notice we still have some time before this bar closes, and it would be interesting to see if this bar mirrors the first bull bar with the selling pressure.

The beast has took off south, that in turn seems to have knocked the eu south.

Looks like earlier scenario chart may be playing out. current bar may mirror the opposite bull bar.

Something else that I tend to keep an eye on besides the normal news events is the Dji. If it's opposite the daily trend by midday, and the eu is the same direction of Dji, I may not hold a short term trade too long. Risk aversion has been a major factor these last 4 to 5 months.

As of the start of this thread, if you would have entered short, you would have been up to a maximum of 65 pips, and currently 39. Glancing at my daily I will hold. Above bar has reversed direction, and has only 50 minutes left to mirror opposite bull bar. Usd/chf has dropped below pivot. and is riding the bottom Bolinger band.

There is the choice here. You can use trailers and ride your profit, or hard stops just beyond the previous s/r lines. My mental stop is 2955 60 above my entry of 2895. If we happen to make it back to 2976, I would short there providing we don't break the daily r1 Remember, I am day trading this trade, and will probably close sometime during the asian session. Trailers are always a good thing though. To lock in that profit. Which I think I will apply now. with a 35 pip trailing stop. My usual risk to reward is 2/1 Meaning I'll risk 100 pips to make 200. That should probably have been put in my first post.

Looks to be in jeopardy. If it gets hit, I'll monitor the move up, and look to renter short at next major resistance level. Either 2939area, or 2976 area. That all is dependant on how much momentum the bull is running with.

Which is what I spoke on in my earlier post, in regards to taking the eu with it.

Nice little bull run, monitoring and waiting. Trailer was hit, locked in a few pips though. And would like to comment about bias. having bias can hurt a scalper. It can make you miss trade opportunities if the market isn't moving in accordance to your bias. It also can help you from not taking trades that may give you a long draw down. It's a double edged sword. Some say that it's not good to have a bias one way or the other, and that you should just trade what you see in the charts. I say, what you see in the charts creates a bias. Whether the bias is right or wrong is another story.

In looking at my gbp/yen chart, I still see more eu bull movement left.

scenario is a dead issue. looking to short at my next area of interest. Providing we don,t blow through it like a run away train. Then I will be looking at the daily r1 levels.