I TPd all my short. Great result today. Could have executed a bit better. Undecided if I want to trade NY. Would need a significant pullback. Forecasting has gotten pretty good this year but execution needs work.
I see this dropping another 50 pips at least but would need a good price to make it a good deal
Can i make a suggestion. I think you need to think in terms of an intraday template, IE what the general pattern of the day will be. It only does one of about 5 things
If it's a Tuesday to Thursday, and there is resistance with a supply above (or, support with demand below) then it's likely to be a classic sell day or classic buy day template, so you can anticipate the fakeout and then price to travel the ADR distance (140-160ish pips from high to low). Going against it is a waste of time, you're much more likely to lose.
Mondays are usually like a range type template where liquidity will be targeted and positions built. As we're coming to NFP day we're going to head towards a liquidity pool and either tap into it prior to or during the event, in this case the EQL above 1.19. Usually a high or low of the week will be set on Tuesday. This tells you that you can pretty much only sell for tues/weds. Look at the past few Tuesdays, it's either a high or low of the week. For Tues-thurs you can just get your entry in the morning, take a partial then hold a runner to london close. For continuations just use liquidity pools within FVGs
Finding the range to swing days, or swing/reversal, usually there is some institutional supply and demand (fresh, untested) to define that-- but I use White Oak FX's method which only gives zones which take out opposing zones on the h1/h4 chart (we only had supply today)
morning people trading plan today is to buy from 1.2030 to 1.2068-70, then sell and hold til close. Sell day with bullish fakeout Buy could be from 1.2025 so keep the stop loose on both ends, moreso the topend {image}
{quote} Can i make a suggestion. I think you need to think in terms of an intraday template, IE what the general pattern of the day will be. It only does one of about 5 things If it's a Tuesday to Thursday, and there is resistance with a supply above (or, support with demand below) then it's likely to be a classic sell day or classic buy day template, so you can anticipate the fakeout and then price to travel the ADR distance (140-160ish pips from high to low). Going against it is a waste of time, you're much more likely to lose. Mondays are usually...
Ignored
I missed the drop, luckily I didn't try to catch that falling knife.
morning people trading plan today is to buy from 1.2030 to 1.2068-70, then sell and hold til close. Sell day with bullish fakeout Buy could be from 1.2025 so keep the stop loose on both ends, moreso the topend {image}
Ignored
yesterday was quite clear, but today, not so much
as we have taken out key liquidity , price can easily reverse and go bullish
but momentum is clearly with the bears
I'm gonna first look for a short to below yesterdays low and look for a test of 1.18. an area to look for a short ... i think 1.1840-48. 1.1849 is a high volume node and should see some reaction
will have to tread carefully today. DXY is in h4 supply with several key swing highs taken out. GU is in no mans land with h4 demand sitting at 1.1775-10 ish.
If i can get one 50 pip short, that will be fine. I dont want to catch the bottom. but, we may see reversal in NY session.
If i'm to guess at today's pattern i'd say London bears and NY reversal. However, JP is the man that moves the markets the most, a signal that we're getting a 50bps rise caused treasury yields to spike which may mean more of a repricing in equities (down). So, i'll stick with bearish bias, with cautious buy levels being either 1.18, 1.1775, 1.1750 -- has to show some clear m5 structure shift first for any buys.
Took a small profit from the short but it was hardly worth the stressful wait.
Some days set up beautifully and the play is quite clear but today isn't one of those days.
It is tempting to trade Jolts but I think it's basically a 50/50 shot. I'd tend to take the other side of whichever end of today's range it goes to but I don't think the odds stack up as we don't have a clear trading level until we go into the 1.17s.
