EUR/CHF

On TC.Technical Analysis Long term trend on the daily chart has changed to indicate the decent of the EURCHF.

What do you guys think, are we entering a down channel of sorts?

I have scalp in general, at present I can not see the possibility, you are up or down.
I have to wait.

I do not trade trend channel because it requires much more information than the scalp.
but it can be a good idea.

TC.Analysis EURCHF long term turned back to Up Trend.

2017.08.03 has been added to a new level.
these situations are alarming.

time to go long eurchf now at 1.1554 and more at 1.1525

now releasing the price.
scalp does not indicate a situation.

Message from Goldman Sachs:

The SNB will not soon begin to tighten monetary policy, so the franc will continue to cheaper against the euro as long as the economic and market situation is favorable. We raise the 12-month forecast for the pair from chf1.20 to 1.25, and accordingly, the 3 and 6-month forecasts also increase from chf1.17 and chf1.18 to chf1.18 and chf1.20, respectively.

Inflation in Switzerland remains below the SNB forecasts in December, and demand deposits have recently increased, so the regulator is unlikely to tolerate a serious increase in the franc rate. In general, the growth rates of GDP and inflation in Switzerland lag behind the pan-European, and its economy continues to strongly depend on the exchange rate of the national currency. As the monetary policy in the Eurozone normalizes, the capital that fled to Switzerland from the crisis will begin to return, which will lead to a decrease in the franc. However, our bullish forecasts for the pair could be threatened in the event of a sudden deterioration of the situation in the Eurozone.

The SNB can sit back and relax in today’s monetary policy assessment. The euro’s strength since last spring has meant that EURCHF has reached higher levels, a develop-ment it finds much easier to live with. However, the EURCHF exchange rate remains at the mercy of developments in the euro zone, which the SNB cannot influence. So perhaps the situation is not that relaxed after all...
https://youtu.be/L_A7IpHn_8E

Credit Suisse: 1.20 remains a point of attraction for the EURCHF

The euro, paired with the Swiss franc, ended Tuesday with a decline, but Credit Suisse notes that the events of the previous two days have confirmed the strength of the bulls, and are waiting for the development of an upward trend in the near future.

Bank strategists draw attention to the fact that EURCHF formed a closing above 1.1742/50, now attempts to return lower attract interest to the purchase, and the focus was shifted to the January highs near 1.1832. In general, the nature of the technical picture on longer-term charts suggests that the pair is on the way to 1.20, although Credit Suisse is warned that this resistance to the bulls will be difficult to overcome. The bank believes that significant for the bulls is support in the area of 1.1677/73, and the pair needs to stay higher to avoid forming the top.

My view of EURCHF.

after month check where is eurchf <3
time to close this trade as its supply zone

Since February the franc has weakened against the euro whereas the yen has trended stronger against USD. One reason of course is that as a result of political risks in the euro zone being priced out, the franc is less in demand as a regional safe haven. Against the background of US conflicts with North Korea, China and Russia the yen is being bought as a result of regional and global risks, though. In my view this gives rise to another central question though: are we seeing the big come back of the yield differentials again? During the years of zero interest rates in the industrialised nations yield differentials played a subordinate role for the FX market when valuing currency pairs. But now the period of expansionary monetary policy is coming to an end and normalisation has started. Yield differentials will widen for the foreseeable future and will increasingly become a more important reason for or against a currency. At -0.75% the key rate in Switzerland is now well below that in the euro zone and Japan. But above all the SNB has not given the smallest indication of it even considering an end to its expansionary monetary policy, whereas an exit is being debated in the euro zone and in Japan, which has already led to rate hike expectations. That means monetary policy seems to be an argument against the franc compared with the euro. In particular while the market continues to react to positive news from the euro zone and positive comments from within the ECB by buying the euro.

looks like there will be a correction from current levels

i sold from 1.186

target 1.18, 1.17

stop 1.19

fail, 1.20 is probably the next target

Very interesting.

Progonosis 4 months ago and reality



Hello dear traders,


On the 23rd of January 2018 I published in this block (Post 14587) the following post:


https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post10700600



For many years now I am only following the POC principle.

The key "Equilibrium"

1. The price is determined by supply and demand in each market.
2. Any influence on the price will be returned from the price
3. Before the price moves up or down, a balance between supply and demand creates a balance.
4. If this balance is disturbed, the price moves in the direction of supply or in the direction of demand.
5. The price moves as long as supply or demand until there is a balance again. Then the whole thing starts from the beginning.
Most candles are where there is a balance. We do not want to trade there, when the price is not moving very much. So we have to act when there is no balance.


On 15.01.2015 there was the franc shock


Let's take a look at what happened to the USDCHF.



The price slipped from 1.018 in seconds to 0.855 (1.600 pip). But already after 49 days the course came back into the POC zone. What happened? The price went down about 1,000 pip for the next 50 days.


Let's look at the EURCHF


The price dropped within seconds from 1.20 to 0.97. (2,200 pip)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The course has still not made it into the POC zone after 940 days. Now we are nearing a decisive phase. I think we will reach the zone relatively quickly. And then?

Now I recommend you to watch this zone as you enter the course. As it seems, the zone could push down the course and give us some good shorts.



Now let's look at the result 4 months later.



In the daily chart large overview the result looks so far as follows.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

In the daily chart small overview, the course is clearer to see, the stop of 16 pip has been a small risk in terms of potential opportunity. So far you could win 270 pip with this information. As I find an interesting chance risk ratio.

How could I know that 4 months ago?
I could not know that, but due to the supply and demand I've been working on for over 10 years, the guess was obvious.
I do not want to express that I was right, but that one should deal with the subject of supply and demand. This information helps every dealer to significantly improve his performance. The principle of supply and demand applies in all currency pairs and can be applied easily.


I wish all dealers a nice weekend and a lot of success

best regards

This pair is getting smashed today, not looking good for EUR bulls. I think 1.15 can be reached on further selling.

lol