DislikedHi, I apologise for my bad English, I wanted to know if anyone has complete data on this trading system. Win percentage Drawdown Etc.Ignored
Trading should not be difficult
2
{quote} Get a forex testing program, open any chart, and figure it out for yourself. Don't take anyone's word for it, not even mine. But first and foremost, ensure you have read all posts on this thread to ensure you understand what we are trading here.
See the one I use more often.
You take control on the market and can simulate trading.
Just google for "forex testing" or "trading testing software" or "metatrader testing software" and you will find a few.
{quote} All right, computers are used everywhere and have sophysticated algorithms. But there are important differences on the different markets, so I don't think it is helpful to put all in the same basket. When you trade CFD, big banks can not influence the price. Commodity prices are mostly influenced by the underlying physical goods Supply and Demand. Only actual buyers of the physical goods, either spot or futures can influence their prices, or the goods' Suppliers, or the middlemen for the goods within certain limits, or the dollar strength...
- The absolute range to be traded.
- A reference price and a coefficient(s) that will be applied to price.
- The legal and or regulated limits or prices that will be applied to price change per time interval if any.
I mean, that I think that the basic problem is the type of bounded interval; but once given that interval, the rest is pure manipulation all the time, because prices are offered by software programs and that implies the result is 100% controlled.
As you say, if the FED injects liquidity as it did a few months ago, you will see a change in that market (that will be 100% controlled by software and the owners of the software).
Look what price did last Friday during NFP and it was my last long last week.
But think, for instance in cryptos it is very obvious. Cryptos are a good example. See this chart.
I have added a few of the cryptos with more capitalization. The candlestick chart below is an index similar to the dixie index, but for cryptos. When the fundamentals are ok, all the cryptos evolve very similarly, they have an extraordinarily correlated to the crypto index (the crypto index is the harmonic mean of 10 cryptos). BTC leads the index (and the crypto market prices) so I have omitted it since it is implicit to the index.
It means, that as long as there is speculative intertest on a product, the pricing system that controls cryptos will do the same with every single crypto asset over there. Otherwise, their value would be determined by the specific and particular features of each project and how it evolves over time.
When I wrote that index, I was looking for a tool to find manipulation in markets and I realized how correlated these assets were, much more than Forex. I had around 50 investments in cryptos and I immediately reduced it to one half of it. And I think that by the end of this year I will reduce it to about 10 because diversification is adding more risk to my portfolio due to the high correlation levels.
Now see the main stock indices of the world and observe what happened during the COVID event.
Now think why an isolated event causes such dramatic fall at the same time and a so similar PA over all the indices of the world.
An investment should not have such a dramatic value change. And more if we talk about economies so different as France, Canada, Japan, UK and many others I have omitted. All at the same time!! These changes correspond to speculative pricing systems that vary prices more or less in the same manner according to pure speculative interests. I mean, if the product is lucrative, they're in; if the product yields worse, the funds go elsewhere. And if prices show that, it means that prices are controlled by speculators imo.
Is BTC price given by the blockchain system itself? Nope. It is produced by each broker and the most important ones have (except coinbase that is extremely expensive and non-competitive for instance) the same platform (see Huobi, Gate.io, Binance, Kucoin, etc...). Try to find automated triangular arbitrage opportunities on your prefered broker and you will see how it is impossible, because they manipulate crosses to the extreme so that no one except them can do it. I have been running bots against my brokers for entire days and they adjust automatically prices to keep for themselves the price inefficiences due to imbalances.
I know it is a bit off-topic, but I think that it is important to reduce the number of variables to look at while trading. And I think that supply and demand is not amongst the ones we have to look at when we are trading using candlestick charts. That we can be purely studying naked charts and get sufficient accuracy and precision.
{quote} This quoted post is very important if anyone wants to improve their edge. Best time to sell an asset/market is after buy orders have been distributed (when there are few buys to oppose the sells). So ideally we want to look for a STRONG BULLISH run, wait for price compression (accumulation of sell orders), a move downwards (sellers in control), then we can trade retrace to TL break line. Best time to buy an asset/market is after sell orders have been distributed (when there are few sells to oppose the buys). So ideally we want to look for...
Obviously the EURAUD breakout isn't ideal but both show breaks of accumulation / distribution zones / channels.
- Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Member | 147 Posts
{quote} {image}{image} Obviously the EURAUD breakout isn't ideal but both show breaks of accumulation / distribution zones / channels.
Trading should not be difficult
Good morning, pals.
I have been reviewing the chart and I am not going to short sell that level because the two highs are too flat to my taste and, specially, because the second high is lower than the first one. In that situation my guess is that prices may be running the stops above these two levels before they are allowed to reverse.
I do not mean that is what it is going to happen, but that it would be the ideal scenario I would be waiting for before considering looking for shorts.
I have been reviewing the chart and I am not going to short sell that level because the two highs are too flat to my taste and, specially, because the second high is lower than the first one. In that situation my guess is that prices may be running the stops above these two levels before they are allowed to reverse.
I do not mean that is what it is going to happen, but that it would be the ideal scenario I would be waiting for before considering looking for shorts.
- | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: surf the trend | 330 Posts
This is a M30 chart that marries up perfectly with H1 & H4 for ger30
{quote} Although my bias is down and would like price to run through to 130.2 at least before selling, I would also consider this schema. {image}
When I see the chart with so many wicks and noise, I try to switch to HTF. When you move up to 1H, there are a few support areas where long opportunities may arise later on.
However, I must say I really do not like that looong black candles on the left forming the downside part of the "U". I really do not like it, because all these shorts will be mitigated upon the descent, that implies that all that range could be covered. That is the reason I am not really fan of that asset today. See the schema below.
I mean that my order-flow analysis is not really matching any obvious TL break structure for me. It does not mean it does not exists, just that I am not aware of the existence of it.
Conversely, if we are observing that the weekly momentum is negative, be can also try to adopt a seller profile till price reaches the next strong support area.
This just means that we only accept shorting opportunities and reject long ones, just to be in line with the main trend and considering that chart is valid, of course.
Everything I say is always only valid for paper trading.
This just means that we only accept shorting opportunities and reject long ones, just to be in line with the main trend and considering that chart is valid, of course.
Everything I say is always only valid for paper trading.
Engineer - a couple of questions if you don't mind? 1) On numerous occasions you have recommended people use LTF price action to confirm HTF levels but no-one seems to be doing this. Have I missed something or is this just people not following your recommendation? That seems strange as I assume it will give a higher win rate and better R/R. 2) I get the idea of using the break of accumulation and distribution trendlines with retest of the break level as an LTF confirmation but you also mention break of structure as an alternative method of confirmation....
CADJPY (can't see why the M30 move didn't play out) -
