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  • Post #361
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  • Feb 12, 2021 11:05am Feb 12, 2021 11:05am
  •  orbwarp
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Looks like a nice pullback on the NZDUSD, see how it turns out.
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  • Post #362
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  • Feb 12, 2021 11:49am Feb 12, 2021 11:49am
  •  orbwarp
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Quoting orbwarp
Disliked
Looks like a nice pullback on the NZDUSD, see how it turns out. {image}
Ignored
Well that didnt work!
 
 
  • Post #363
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  • Feb 12, 2021 1:16pm Feb 12, 2021 1:16pm
  •  pampaq
  • | Joined May 2013 | Status: Member | 867 Posts
Two trades today. the first, of opportunity with a large batch, up to sma 200 in both TP. 1.5 pts.
The second, while the 1h general view was downtrend, when he bounced off the 200, then ranged, and canceled the bearish power, we were long, by 5pts.
In the charts I try to present the logic behind the trade. TF 5M and 3M
Greetings.
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  • Post #364
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  • Feb 14, 2021 4:20pm Feb 14, 2021 4:20pm
  •  pakeha
  • Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Member | 427 Posts
Quoting orbwarp
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{quote} Well that didnt work!
Ignored
The pullback, once it passed 0.7198, was forming a new structure high, signalling a change in the trend on your chart. So there is no reason to expect that price would turn down where you entered, and certainly, no confirmation candle was painted either. As we saw price continued up to the daily open.

When I get time this week I will share a couple of charts. I trade GBPUSD around the US session open using a similar approach to Winston, but not exactly the same. I don't want to clutter his thread, but there are some basics one absolutely needs to follow - reading market structure; reading price action, and using wide range bars and wide range gap bars effectively.
 
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  • Post #365
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  • Feb 14, 2021 5:06pm Feb 14, 2021 5:06pm
  •  Winston Reed
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts
Quoting orbwarp
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Looks like a nice pullback on the NZDUSD, see how it turns out. {image}
Ignored
There are trends and trends within trends. Trends are made up of swings. Swings are different sizes.

In the chart below the "big" trend swings are marked with green. As one can see there are smaller trends/swings marked off in different colors.

The red trend lines show the big swings in the big green trend and roughly measure the size of the big green swings.

When price falls away dramatically creating supply and then returns dramatically one must be cautious in assuming that the supply will again behave as supply. In this case some kind of confirmation will save the frustration of having price blow through as it did here.
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  • Post #366
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  • Feb 14, 2021 5:11pm Feb 14, 2021 5:11pm
  •  pakeha
  • Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Member | 427 Posts
Here is an example from my Friday trading. I trade GBPUSD around the US open - the vertical brown line is when I start looking at charts. Here is what I saw:

1. Preceding market structure showed a down-trend (LH/LL). At around 14:00 on my chart (7 am EST) it looked like a higher low had formed (HL#1) and this was a signal that the trend may be reversing. Price formed a new structure high at 14:45 (7:45 am EST) which was a confirmation of the change in trend.
2. Then I wait for a price retracement and the next higher low (HL#2 in this case).
3. A WRB formed at 15:45 (8:45 EST), on a very bullish candle. The first entry opportunity was the second candle after the WRB when priced touched the 50% edge of the WRB (note: I use 50% and not 30% like Winston).
4. A WRB Gap formed at 16:30 (9:30 EST). The second entry was on the first (or third) candle after the WRB Gap again when price touched the Gap. (note: for WRB Gap candles I may use the gap as my zone, especially if the candle and gap are large).
5. Both these trades yielded 3:1. (I put my SL beneath the WRB and WRB Gap zone).

So I, map market structure, read price action and use WRB and WRB gap candles as zones for entry, usually on the next few candles.

Hope that helps.
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  • Post #367
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  • Feb 15, 2021 6:37am Feb 15, 2021 6:37am
  •  orbwarp
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 102 Posts
Thanks for the advise above for nzdusd, much appreciated. I have been trading a long time, but I still have a lot to learn (maybe will always !) I do tend to focus on higher time frame potential reversals, and then look at the 15 mins for entry. I agree the price action on nzdusd, would have saved that trade as I entered without any confirmation.

I've gone long on this one, may well just hit the sl but I have moved it to entry, on gbpaud : see pic
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  • Post #369
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  • Feb 15, 2021 10:00am Feb 15, 2021 10:00am
  •  Winston Reed
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts
Quoting orbwarp
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{quote} Closed early at 1.7891 - 70% gain, so was high risk.
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Are you saying your account size increased by 70% with this one trade?
 
 
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  • orbwarp
  • Post #371
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  • Feb 15, 2021 10:50am Feb 15, 2021 10:50am
  •  Winston Reed
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts
Quoting orbwarp
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{quote} Yes the account size I currently have, I often take money out so it's not exactly the same. I only had approx 800 in the account, I know it's v risky.
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An understatement and ignorance of any semblance of responsible money management. Sorry but it needs to be said so others can learn from such irresponsibility.
 
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  • Post #372
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  • Feb 15, 2021 10:56am Feb 15, 2021 10:56am
  •  Winston Reed
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts
I've said it before here and elsewhere: Money management including strict risk:reward is the foundation of a profitable trading strategy.

It is more important than one's actual trading strategy.

Treating trading as a get-rich quick venture rather than a business will eventually wipe your trading account out. I've been trading for 12+years and have never blown a single account. It's unnecessary.
 
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  • Post #373
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  • Feb 15, 2021 8:27pm Feb 15, 2021 8:27pm
  •  Winston Reed
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts
Follow up of a trade I posted on the website earlier.

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  • Post #374
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  • Feb 16, 2021 2:51am Feb 16, 2021 2:51am
  •  breadgineer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Junior Member | 3 Posts
Hi Winston,

New to both the forum and your threads. I've been watching Shane Blankenship's videos on YouTube and they were very eye opening. Thank you for mentioning him! A question for you. When doing your analysis, do you only identify adequate gaps, or do you also incorporate the market swings (major and minor) into the analysis. My thinking is that one cannot be without the other.

breadgineer
 
 
  • Post #375
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  • Edited 7:56am Feb 16, 2021 7:40am | Edited 7:56am
  •  Winston Reed
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts
Quoting breadgineer
Disliked
Hi Winston, New to both the forum and your threads. I've been watching Shane Blankenship's videos on YouTube and they were very eye opening. Thank you for mentioning him! A question for you. When doing your analysis, do you only identify adequate gaps, or do you also incorporate the market swings (major and minor) into the analysis. My thinking is that one cannot be without the other. breadgineer
Ignored
Yes. I have my own take on swings and gaps all of which has been discussed here on the thread and on the website.
 
 
  • Post #376
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  • Feb 17, 2021 5:32am Feb 17, 2021 5:32am
  •  breadgineer
  • | Joined Dec 2020 | Status: Junior Member | 3 Posts
Quoting Winston Reed
Disliked
{quote} Yes. I have my own take on swings and gaps all of which has been discussed here on the thread and on the website.
Ignored
Thanks for the reply. I have been studying both this thread and your website. It's all starting to make a lot more sense now.
 
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  • Post #377
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  • Feb 17, 2021 8:57am Feb 17, 2021 8:57am
  •  Nino
  • | Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Member | 51 Posts
I missed this for a few pips, but I wanted to confirm how important RR 1:3 is (as Winston keeps telling us). Of course the price could easily drop further but personally I prefer not to risk too much.

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  • Post #378
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  • Feb 18, 2021 4:03pm Feb 18, 2021 4:03pm
  •  Winston Reed
  • Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts
Quoting Nino
Disliked
I missed this for a few pips, but I wanted to confirm how important RR 1:3 is (as Winston keeps telling us). Of course the price could easily drop further but personally I prefer not to risk too much. {image}
Ignored
Nice Nino!

I like how this pair is trending.

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  • Post #379
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  • Feb 18, 2021 6:37pm Feb 18, 2021 6:37pm
  •  pampaq
  • | Joined May 2013 | Status: Member | 867 Posts
Opening of the Future of the SP500, EMini, we identify the supply and demand zones in TF 5M. Traced for identification by yellow arrows. Figure 1)
Then Stand by, in a flip flap zone, or nobody's line. Fig. (2)
We expect the price to make up its mind, nullify one side and show bearish strength or better bullish weakness. Entry (3)
Entrance, we see the candle patterns, with mmtum and full.
We identify the probable areas of demand, the gray lines are DZ of TF 1H. Fig (4). They are 5.25 pts. And there the price is likely to stop.
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  • Post #380
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  • Feb 18, 2021 6:42pm Feb 18, 2021 6:42pm
  •  pampaq
  • | Joined May 2013 | Status: Member | 867 Posts
ANOTHER ENTRY, the same, we hope it is defined because it is in the SM of 1H. It is a stand by, in 3M the yellow arrows of the SZ and DZ are drawn
Fig (1). The situation is defined, we are short. Fig (2). We left by no continuation in 3M Fig (3) and in turn 1TO1
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