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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading 1,854 replies

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Attachments: (binned per thread starter’s request) Supply and Demand, Price
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(binned per thread starter’s request) Supply and Demand, Price

Quoting orbwarp
Hopefully this will go up : {image}
I hope you don't mind some somewhat critical comments. They are meant to be helpful.

This is the overall context within which you are long.
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It is certainly possible that price may want to rise to fill the gap above.
However any existing demand that might push price up seems quite weak.
Personally I would want to see stronger demand for price to test and bounce up towards the gap.
It could definitely grind its way up but I would not consider it a high probability trade.

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Finally let me suggest you reconfigure your chart so that the price action is not so small. Price action should be the most important item on your chart.
Quoting Nino
Sorry if I omitted the Supply, Demand and Pivot annotations. I hope they are clear. {image}
Hello Nino.
Very nice chart with clear and clean notations that outline what is going on.
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I hope you don't mind some somewhat critical comments. They are meant to be helpful. This is the overall context within which you are long. {image} It is certainly possible that price may want to rise to fill the gap above. However any existing demand that might push price up seems quite weak. Personally I would want to see stronger demand for price to test and bounce up towards the gap. It could definitely grind its way up but I would not consider it a high probability trade. {image} Finally let me suggest you reconfigure your chart so...
I appreciate your comments of course. But some of the analysis is a bit further back (see pics). Also I think I have a slight bias in thinking about nzd being 'over valued' and the gbp having more upside (ie brexit deal) but I'm trying not to allow that 'fundamental' analysis sway the charts, but from your comments maybe that is happening. Maybe I shouldn't take notice of data further back than you have shown.

I see the main point you are making is basically go with a strong supply/demand rather than a weaker, judging by the size of the bar/candle WRB, is that right?

Thanks
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Closed for a small profit now!
Having a consistent strategy of analysis that follows an overall trading philosophy or paradigm is key to successful trading.

Mine involves to a certain extent the following
1. Determine the trend in the time frame you are trading. Do not use time frames above or below for analysis.
2. Examine the swings within the trend you are trading noticing familiar behavior and also where the buyers and sellers were in each swing (using supply and demand gapbars will help with this)
3. Notice the pivots in each swing.
4. Trade with the trend for highest probability and best R:R
5. Use a consistent R:R when you trade.


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Quoting Winston Reed
Having a consistent strategy of analysis that follows an overall trading philosophy or paradigm is key to successful trading. Mine involves to a certain extent the following 1. Determine the trend in the time frame you are trading. Do not use time frames above or below for analysis. 2. Examine the swings within the trend you are trading noticing familiar behavior and also where the buyers and sellers were in each swing (using supply and demand gapbars will help with this) 3. Notice the pivots in each swing. 4. Trade with the trend for highest probability...
Trading with the trend is a high probability approach but it doesn't mean of course that one cannot go against the trend.

In the chart below there is clear evidence of demand coming into this market on this time frame. Seeing this configuration is compelling for a counter trend trade.
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looks promising. subscribed
My Currency is Urgency
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ON THESE ARROWS, THE TREND CHANGE OCCURS. THE BREAKAGE OF THE PIVOTS, OCCURS, WHEN THE FRACTAL, 3X3, SUFFERS A BOU OR BDO. RED ARROWS, BDOU, AND DOWN TREND, BLUE ARROWS, BOU AND BULL TREND.
THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MARKET RHYTHM, ITS ORDER FLOW. ONCE THE TREND IS IDENTIFIED, THE EXPECTATION IS, THAT IT CONTINUE. IT IS TRUE THAT THERE, WE MUST COMPARE, MMTUM, STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS, IMPULSES AND RETRACEMENTS. UNTIL ONE IS EVIDENT THAT IT CANCELS THE OTHER. THERE IS THE ENTRANCE WITH A GREAT CHANCE OF SUCCESS, AND ABOVE ALL, WITH PEACE OF MIND. DETERMINING FACTOR TO BE ABLE TO PRESERVE THE CAPITAL AND INCREASE IT ACCORDING TO THE MARKET ALLOWS US.
REGARDS
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Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Trading with the trend is a high probability approach but it doesn't mean of course that one cannot go against the trend. In the chart below there is clear evidence of demand coming into this market on this time frame. Seeing this configuration is compelling for a counter trend trade. {image}
AUDUSD was trending down on this 15 min chart. The sell I showed would have been stopped out based on my minimum 3:1. As stated earlier the market demonstrated a clear sign of supply and in this case was worth a buy against the trend. The buy went to target so in this case there was a net profit between the 2 trades.

Given the definitions I've outlined on the website an uptrend is now in progress.

I also want to say something about R:R. A R:R of 3:1 imho provides is reasonable an provides an opportunity for profit even with only a 33% win rate. This is difficult for many to comprehend as many are often focused on winning more than they lose. Sadly it is in fact this focus on winning more than losing that is frequently the cause of an eroding account.

I do not get out of a trade early whether I'm near profit target and the trade turns nor do I get out early even if it clearly seems the trade is heading towards being stopped out. In both instances I have seen turn arounds that have led to my profit target despite all odds. The habit of getting out of trades early in any situation will in the long run lead to an eroding account. This is 12+ years of experience that has led me to this. Most will ignore this and continue taking partial profit, "cutting their losses early", "letting their profits run", etc. etc. These are long term losing attitudes that everyone seems to preach and yet they are losing.

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Mr. Reed,

I was drawn to your post due to the pair AUD/USD being the pair I am focusing on. I am trying to stop the habit of being all over the place. I am glad I read your post because your last paragraphreally hit home.

"I do not get out of a trade early whether I'm near profit target and the trade turns nor do I get out early even if it clearly seems the trade is heading towards being stopped out. In both instances I have seen turn arounds that have led to my profit target despite all odds. The habit of getting out of trades early in any situation will in the long run lead to an eroding account. This is 12+ years of experience that has led me to this. Most will ignore this and continue taking partial profit, "cutting their losses early", "letting their profits run", etc. etc. These are long term losing attitudes that everyone seems to preach and yet they are losing."

I have been reacting to price and cutting trades, just to see them eventually do what my analysis thought the pair would do. I have returned to my demo account to reevaluate this and get my psychology under control. Thank you for posting and sharing your experience. I believe I was suppose to read this today to confirm that I am on the right track.

FinoptUSA
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Trading with the trend is a high probability approach but it doesn't mean of course that one cannot go against the trend. In the chart below there is clear evidence of demand coming into this market on this time frame. Seeing this configuration is compelling for a counter trend trade. {image}
Winston, on the losing trade, if you had entered on the first gap bar you would have got your 3:1 R:R and it would have been a successful trade.
Quoting pakeha
{quote} Winston, on the losing trade, if you had entered on the first gap bar you would have got your 3:1 R:R and it would have been a successful trade.
You are right.

I felt the demand shelf below was going to hold price and then proceed to a new high. When it broke the demand shelf I felt this was a more powerful indication that supply was in control again and of course that a new low would occur.
AUDUSD 15 min potentially beginning an uptrend yet the idea of a sell to target any of the gaps downstream cannot be excluded.

At 1 this gapbar represents the first hurdle price must overcome to the downside for there to be real evidence that price might proceed down to "fill" any of the gaps below. These gaps often attract price and imho should be present to justify a sell against the uptrend.

2 is a gapbar indicating the presence of supply but that is it so far and it didn't really take anything out to the downside so by itself I can't get excited to sell it. It is certainly a possibility but imho it represents a low probability sell.
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Mr. Reed,

I am watching this as well. If price breaks .76650, I will feel better about number 2 and filling the gap.

FinoptUSA
Winston the email you have given on website is not working- its not possible to send message to that email. i did fill the "contact us" form, check that...
The more you learn the more you earn
Quoting freemind
Winston the email you have given on website is not working- its not possible to send message to that email. i did fill the "contact us" form, check that...
The correct email address is"

[email protected]
Quoting Winston Reed
AUDUSD 15 min potentially beginning an uptrend yet the idea of a sell to target any of the gaps downstream cannot be excluded. At 1 this gapbar represents the first hurdle price must overcome to the downside for there to be real evidence that price might proceed down to "fill" any of the gaps below. These gaps often attract price and imho should be present to justify a sell against the uptrend. 2 is a gapbar indicating the presence of supply but that is it so far and it didn't really take anything out to the downside so by itself I can't get excited...
LOL. This just drives home the point of not getting too excited about gapbars that appear as 2 did. Gapbars that "take-out" something or more specifically "reverse effort" are more interesting.
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EURGBP 15 min sell limit. This is not a "trade call". Please do your own due diligence.

EURGBP on the 15 min chart has been relentlessly downtrending. It seemed price was trying to fill the gap above but now a pivot has appeared. I've tweaked the R:R and although I would like a lower entry this is what I'm going with.
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I had a question on the website concerning wick "zones".

Large wicks or tails or pinbars represent in themselves effort reversed. So in the model below the blue arrow shows a large tail or wick. For the wick to be created price had to descend dramatically and then ascend dramatically and close. Therefore the large wick, tail or pinbar. I prefer the term tail.

When price was descending one would have noted how bearish it was during its creation. When it completely retraces itself then we can say that that bearish effort was reversed. So a bullish tail really represents a reversal of bearish effort. But what happens if the bullish effort now is reversed again. Now we can say that the bullish tail effort is reversed. This is shown in the model below. Notice that we want this reversal to be dramatic as would occur with a bearish gapbar as shown below. Thus this reversal represents supply. In the right context this reversal represents a "supply zone" and a possible sell opportunity.

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This is a real chart example
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