Don't trade what you think. Just what you see!!!
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #868,963
- Nov 21, 2025 6:05am Nov 21, 2025 6:05am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,731 Posts
Bears are just absolute sadists aren't they?
Keep the Lights on then you can catch the rise from the dark.
- #868,966
- Nov 21, 2025 6:32am Nov 21, 2025 6:32am
- Joined Mar 2021 | Status: Trader | 2,976 Posts
EDIT: I'll shut up now.
- #868,967
- Nov 21, 2025 6:35am Nov 21, 2025 6:35am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: From1toMillion | 9,468 Posts | Online Now
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
- #868,971
- Nov 21, 2025 7:00am Nov 21, 2025 7:00am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 3,976 Posts
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
- #868,972
- Nov 21, 2025 7:11am Nov 21, 2025 7:11am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: MMA Pro Wrestler | 17,549 Posts
Dollah Index/ DXY
Been long time, i didnt see anyone put Dollah Index or DXY analysis.
As newbie and junior member of FF, I would like to try to put up mine, hoping some senior and more proffesional traders correct me.
Thanks in advance
For me, it's the essential benchmark—like a roadmap that gives direction before I even look at individual USD pairs.
If you're trading dollar pairs, analyzing the DXY first can really simplify your process.
The insight you gain from the index can then be applied across all the major USD pairs.
It gives you a powerful reference point to figure out the dollar's overall direction.
More often than not, this means you can have a pretty good idea of where the dollar pairs are headed, or at least what direction you should be trading them in.
Now lets look at the Big Picture: HTF Bullishness
Looking at the daily chart, there's a possibility we are forming a complex WXYXZ corrective pattern.
On the weekly timeframe, the story gets more compelling.
We saw a strong bounce off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a clear BOS.
The price is now holding above that broken structure, which is a bullish sign.
Because of this, I think there's a good chance the DXY will take out the next high.
I believe the dollar will stay bullish for the rest of 2025. (cough, cough)
Now, I do expect the dollar to eventually turn down again, but I think that's more likely to happen sometime next year—perhaps around January or February. (i.e, after Christmas....)
We are potentially in wave B of a larger wave Y right now.
It wouldn't be unrealistic for this pattern to play out all the way to point Z, which could potentially extend the overall move until spring of 2026. (cough, ,cough again)
I know this is a very high-timeframe outlook, and most people trade shorter timeframes.
But whether you're on the 1-minute or the daily chart, these higher-timeframe analyses are, in my opinion, 100% critical for context.
LTF Momentum Confirms the Trend
Zooming in, the trend is clearly up as we're still making higher highs and higher lows.
If you go down to the 1 to 2-hour timeframe, you can see we had a BOS last Thursday.
Pretty much ever since, we've been consistently making higher lows.
It's a really nice, clean pattern.
Now that we have this new high on the daily, we can move our key support level up.
This is definitely an impulsive move—it's not overlapping, which confirms the strength behind the move.
So, yeah, my newbie view is definitely still very bullish on the dollar.
I think it needs to at least hit the 123.00 level on the DXY (which would be 12,900 on Dollah Index platforms).
This target area aligns with a ton of leftover liquidity I've marked on my chart.
It also fits the flat pattern we've been discussing, as these patterns often extend to the 161% or 178% Fib level in an expanding flat.
NOW, we come to the most important point.............
What are your thoughts on the DXY's direction?
(Appreciate your help for newbie like me, Thnks)
Been long time, i didnt see anyone put Dollah Index or DXY analysis.
As newbie and junior member of FF, I would like to try to put up mine, hoping some senior and more proffesional traders correct me.
Thanks in advance
For me, it's the essential benchmark—like a roadmap that gives direction before I even look at individual USD pairs.
If you're trading dollar pairs, analyzing the DXY first can really simplify your process.
The insight you gain from the index can then be applied across all the major USD pairs.
It gives you a powerful reference point to figure out the dollar's overall direction.
More often than not, this means you can have a pretty good idea of where the dollar pairs are headed, or at least what direction you should be trading them in.
Now lets look at the Big Picture: HTF Bullishness
Looking at the daily chart, there's a possibility we are forming a complex WXYXZ corrective pattern.
On the weekly timeframe, the story gets more compelling.
We saw a strong bounce off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a clear BOS.
The price is now holding above that broken structure, which is a bullish sign.
Because of this, I think there's a good chance the DXY will take out the next high.
I believe the dollar will stay bullish for the rest of 2025. (cough, cough)
Now, I do expect the dollar to eventually turn down again, but I think that's more likely to happen sometime next year—perhaps around January or February. (i.e, after Christmas....)
We are potentially in wave B of a larger wave Y right now.
It wouldn't be unrealistic for this pattern to play out all the way to point Z, which could potentially extend the overall move until spring of 2026. (cough, ,cough again)
I know this is a very high-timeframe outlook, and most people trade shorter timeframes.
But whether you're on the 1-minute or the daily chart, these higher-timeframe analyses are, in my opinion, 100% critical for context.
LTF Momentum Confirms the Trend
Zooming in, the trend is clearly up as we're still making higher highs and higher lows.
If you go down to the 1 to 2-hour timeframe, you can see we had a BOS last Thursday.
Pretty much ever since, we've been consistently making higher lows.
It's a really nice, clean pattern.
Now that we have this new high on the daily, we can move our key support level up.
This is definitely an impulsive move—it's not overlapping, which confirms the strength behind the move.
So, yeah, my newbie view is definitely still very bullish on the dollar.
I think it needs to at least hit the 123.00 level on the DXY (which would be 12,900 on Dollah Index platforms).
This target area aligns with a ton of leftover liquidity I've marked on my chart.
It also fits the flat pattern we've been discussing, as these patterns often extend to the 161% or 178% Fib level in an expanding flat.
NOW, we come to the most important point.............
What are your thoughts on the DXY's direction?
(Appreciate your help for newbie like me, Thnks)
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit:
$15,104
- #868,973
- Nov 21, 2025 7:16am Nov 21, 2025 7:16am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: bye FF | 8,806 Posts
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
- #868,975
- Nov 21, 2025 7:18am Nov 21, 2025 7:18am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: MMA Pro Wrestler | 17,549 Posts
Is Christmas still on December 25th this year?
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit:
$15,104
- #868,976
- Nov 21, 2025 7:24am Nov 21, 2025 7:24am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: MMA Pro Wrestler | 17,549 Posts
{quote} just a thought, may not break today unless data later push? FED william just say that they Fed can still cut rates in the near term given current policy is modestly restrictive that make market sudden spike, would like to know how you think about this news.
, and it's exactly the kind of short-term market dynamic that can make trading tricky.You're absolutely right.
Comments from Fed officials, like the one from Williams today, can cause immediate volatility and short-covering spikes.
The market is hyper-sensitive to any hint about the timing of rate cuts, and the phrase "cut rates in the near term" is like a shot of adrenaline.
P/S. Let me do some reading on what really FED said......memento
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit:
$15,104
- #868,977
- Nov 21, 2025 7:29am Nov 21, 2025 7:29am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: MMA Pro Wrestler | 17,549 Posts
{quote} Thanks for bringing this up—that's a really sharp observation
When a member like Williams says "policy is modestly restrictive," it's a signal that they think they are done hiking, but it doesn't lock in a specific date for cuts.
The market often hears "cuts!" and gets sexcited, but the Fed will remain entirely data-dependent.
If upcoming inflation (CPI/PCE) or jobs data comes in hot, this "near term" cut narrative can get pushed out quickly, and the dollar can snap right back up.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit:
$15,104
- #868,978
- Nov 21, 2025 7:39am Nov 21, 2025 7:39am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: MMA Pro Wrestler | 17,549 Posts
Some news.......
The ONS reported this Friday that October's deficit exceeded the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast by £3 billion, driven by higher public sector pay, inflation-linked benefits, pensions, and £13.3 billion in elevated debt interest costs that outpaced tax receipts.
Year-to-date borrowing reached £116.8 billion, £9.9 billion above projections and the second-highest outside the pandemic peak.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure ahead of her November 26 Autumn Budget, as analysts eye a £20 billion funding gap amid Labour's pledges to balance the current budget by 2029-30 and cut debt relative to GDP.
Look forwrd for anyone to give some vies on this........Thanks in advance
The ONS reported this Friday that October's deficit exceeded the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast by £3 billion, driven by higher public sector pay, inflation-linked benefits, pensions, and £13.3 billion in elevated debt interest costs that outpaced tax receipts.
Year-to-date borrowing reached £116.8 billion, £9.9 billion above projections and the second-highest outside the pandemic peak.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure ahead of her November 26 Autumn Budget, as analysts eye a £20 billion funding gap amid Labour's pledges to balance the current budget by 2029-30 and cut debt relative to GDP.
Look forwrd for anyone to give some vies on this........Thanks in advance
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit:
$15,104
- #868,979
- Nov 21, 2025 7:54am Nov 21, 2025 7:54am
- | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: MMA Pro Wrestler | 17,549 Posts
{quote} Thanks for bringing this up—that's a really sharp observation
{quote} just a thought, may not break today unless data later push? FED william just say that they Fed can still cut rates in the near term given current policy is modestly restrictive that make market sudden spike, would like to know how you think about this news.
So, for my bullish DXY thesis to be wrong, I would need to see a sustained break below a key higher-timeframe support level (like the recent higher low we discussed) confirmed by a series of softer economic data points that truly force the Fed's hand.
Until then, I view a spike down (On USD) on a dovish comment as a potential buying opportunity within the larger uptrend, especially if it happens in an area of liquidity or at a key technical support level. (Seeling oppurtunity if you trade XXX/USD)
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit:
$15,104
- #868,980
- Nov 21, 2025 7:56am Nov 21, 2025 7:56am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,731 Posts
Keep the Lights on then you can catch the rise from the dark.