DislikedDoes praying work?
This could evolve into an all new "holy grail" trading strategy.
bullrock's coin flipping theory could bite the dust if this new strategy picks up wind.Ignored
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DislikedDoes praying work?
This could evolve into an all new "holy grail" trading strategy.
bullrock's coin flipping theory could bite the dust if this new strategy picks up wind.Ignored
DislikedActually I will finish the calculations during the weekend ... I might include the "prey or pray binary indicator"Ignored
A series of coin tosses is a perfect example of a binomial experiment. Suppose we toss a coin three times. Each coin flip represents a trial, so this experiment would have 3 trials. Each coin flip also has only two possible outcomes - a Head or a Tail. We could call a Head a success; and a Tail, a failure. The probability of a success on any given coin flip would be constant (i.e., 50%). And finally, the outcome on any coin flip is not affected by previous or succeeding coin flips; so the trials in the experiment are independent.
What is a binomial distribution?
A binoal distribution is a probability distribution. It refers to the probabilities associated with the number of successes in a binomial experiment.
For example, suppose we toss a coin three times and suppose we define Heads as a success. This binomial experiment has four possible outcomes: 0 Heads, 1 Head, 2 Heads, or 3 Heads. The probabilities associated with each possible outcome are an example of a binomial distribution, as shown below.
OutcomeBinomial probabilityCumulative probability0 Heads0.1250.1251 Head0.3750.5002 Heads0.3750.8753 Heads0.1251.000
DislikedBR
not sure if this will help you
What is a binomial experiment?
A binomial experiment has the following characteristics:
- The experiment involves repeated trials.
- Each trial has only two possible outcomes - a success or a failure.
- The probability that a particular outcome will occur on any given trial is constant.
- All of the trials in the experiment are independent.
A series of coin tosses is a perfect example of a binomial experiment. Suppose we toss a coin three times. Each coin flip represents a trial, so this experiment would have 3 trials. Each coin flip also has only two possible outcomes - a Head or a Tail. We could call a Head a success; and a Tail, a failure. The probability of a success on any given coin flip would be constant (i.e., 50%). And finally, the outcome on any coin flip is not affected by previous or succeeding coin flips; so the trials in the experiment are independent.
What is a binomial distribution?
A binoal distribution is a probability distribution. It refers to the probabilities associated with the number of successes in a binomial experiment.
For example, suppose we toss a coin three times and suppose we define Heads as a success. This binomial experiment has four possible outcomes: 0 Heads, 1 Head, 2 Heads, or 3 Heads. The probabilities associated with each possible outcome are an example of a binomial distribution, as shown below.
OutcomeBinomial probabilityCumulative probability0 Heads0.1250.1251 Head0.3750.5002 Heads0.3750.8753 Heads0.1251.000Ignored
DislikedWe did although the price was hit our stop loss and achieved the target at 2.0200.Ignored
DislikedYes exactly. I am just busy with some other stuff but that's it really.. I will just analyse the price movements vs flipping coins vs outcomes. I am calculating an optimal MM for this kind of experiment. We will start on Monday. Enjoy the week-end.Ignored
Dislikedvery interesting.
If the probability of the market moving one way or the other is 50-50, then (ignoring the spread for a moment), all we have to do is set the stop loss one chunk one way, and the 'take profit' 3 chunks the other way.
As long as the probability is at least 50-50, and as long as the market moves 3 chunks, then we can't lose.
If we add in the tactic of only betting with the trend and after a dip/peak, it's amazing we ever lose anything in any reasonable period of time !
ok the flaw that i see immediately is that the market does not move 3 chunks - it moves say 2 chunks the right way, then retraces and hits the s/l - well perhaps we should just reduce the chunk size- I know that means spending a larger percentage of our profits on spread costs, but I wonder if it works... anybody see the problem ? One thing I have figured out for certain is that it cant be that simple !
Methinks a lot of it is down to chunk size and volatility..in fact market direction doesnt matter , only volatility ......I will stay up all weekend and figure it....
I am closing in on the holy grail.... or is it a pint of Bank's best bitter....Ignored
Dislikedhave you read the daily95pips thread, i think they have been working on a similar chunk approach system. might help save you time.Ignored
DislikedCable is doing amaaaazzzzzinnggg, incredible !!!
I'm down to +19.91% from +36%
I'm out now, out for goood !
Apart from small money I made, I got lessons, fuck me if I don't learn out of it.Ignored
QuoteDislikedWrite here, for the record!
What did you learned today? Tell the world what did you learned today!
Dislikedthe very basic lesson DO NOT BE GREEDY i.e. when I'm long, I'm not gona lock the profits with short position, BUT put a BE above the long position and other way for short, hope I remember and practice this lesson.Ignored