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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #2,261
  • Dec 18, 2006 5:04am Dec 18, 2006 5:04am
Well, in my opinion the low before the news is reached now.
  • #2,262
  • Dec 18, 2006 5:05am Dec 18, 2006 5:05am
Good morning all...

US Current account news at 1330 GMT, expecting -225 against -218.

Since most of goods retailed in the US are imported, it makes sense this drop in current account. Figures of retail sales were USD-friendly, by the way.

Stronger dollar is likely for today, no?
  • #2,263
  • Dec 18, 2006 5:09am Dec 18, 2006 5:09am
Just a simple guess, but speculators are net long. I believe they will unwind their positions this week ahead of the holiday weekends. Any news anti dollar pro cable will probably be used to get a better selling point. Dollaar all the way to low 1,93's. Just a guess.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #2,264
  • Dec 18, 2006 5:11am Dec 18, 2006 5:11am
Yeah, if i have a deeper look on the chart, it looks really like a downday to me. I would expect a rise now before of the news, then more down to Support 2. We will see. I will ask my crystal ball.
  • #2,265
  • Dec 18, 2006 5:14am Dec 18, 2006 5:14am
Quoting Leugimp
Just a simple guess, but speculators are net long. I believe they will unwind their positions this week ahead of the holiday weekends. Any news anti dollar pro cable will probably be used to get a better selling point. Dollaar all the way to low 1,93's. Just a guess.
This is a very good point... Also something you won't find by looking at charts. It goes without saying that the next few weeks are risky so use caution.
  • #2,266
  • Dec 18, 2006 5:17am Dec 18, 2006 5:17am
Quoting cesarnc
Good morning all...

US Current account news at 1330 GMT, expecting -225 against -218.

Since most of goods retailed in the US are imported, it makes sense this drop in current account. Figures of retail sales were USD-friendly, by the way.

Stronger dollar is likely for today, no?
Will cable hit new lows if tomors' ppi and core ppi news is green?
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #2,267
  • Dec 18, 2006 5:23am Dec 18, 2006 5:23am
Quoting barakah
Will cable hit new lows if tomors' ppi and core ppi news is green?
You're joking right? Would you like someone to pull out their crystal ball and give you a guess? The best anyone can do is give an educated opinion, but that goes out the window once real trading happens. One thing you need to understand is ANYTHING can happen in trading (Everyone was 100% sure GBP/USD was going to hit 2.020 but it still has not happened)... And that goes double for the unregulated forex markets.
  • #2,268
  • Dec 18, 2006 5:30am Dec 18, 2006 5:30am
Quoting mmccormac
You're joking right? Would you like someone to pull out their crystal ball and give you a guess? The best anyone can do is give an educated opinion, but that goes out the window once real trading happens.
That's for sure. But once you put together technicals and fundamentals you will find your self much more confident in taking a position.

Will this or that USD positive news cause GBP to drop? Well, it is much more likely than expecting GBP to be rocketed up to 2.0000, isn´t it? That's why I keep one (very open) eye on news forecasts.

It also keeps you out of that "What the heck happened?" kind of situation...
  • #2,269
  • Dec 18, 2006 5:50am Dec 18, 2006 5:50am
things are looking similar to last monday around this time. Maybe a long upto 9610? Any takers?
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #2,270
  • Edited 7:19am Dec 18, 2006 6:28am | Edited 7:19am
Quote
If you guys look at the last 6 candles before the news in 15 min chart of last Friday, it looks like the same candle formation is taking place...

EMAs, bollinger bands are similar and RSI behaviour - identical!

If 12:45 GMT candle closes at 9480-9485, then fasten your seatbelts.

Very similar, indeed...
  • #2,271
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:06am Dec 18, 2006 7:06am
long @ 9500
  • #2,272
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:07am Dec 18, 2006 7:07am
Quoting forexnovice
long @ 9500
Awaiting 10min to go... - chickening, I know...
  • #2,273
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:08am Dec 18, 2006 7:08am
Quoting cesarnc
Awaiting 10min to go... - chickening, I know...
Are you expecting this news to be usd negative?
mama
  • #2,274
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:09am Dec 18, 2006 7:09am
Dont count ur chicken b4 they hatch
Quoting cesarnc
Awaiting 10min to go... - chickening, I know...
  • #2,275
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:11am Dec 18, 2006 7:11am
Quoting Mama007
Are you expecting this news to be usd negative?
Not actually...

But Friday's news were also USD positive. I placed a short but the market went up 100+ pips to get down 130 pips, reflecting the news... In the end I made 40 pips positive.

But the adrenalin associated with this kind of fluctuation cannot be paid with pips... Holding first to make position...

But if it drops to 9480-9490 I'm in - long
  • #2,276
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:21am Dec 18, 2006 7:21am
price just touched 9490.... u long or not?
  • #2,277
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:21am Dec 18, 2006 7:21am
I'm long too. My system tells me a move up, then a retracement or lower than the last low. Not sure about that down move and how far it will go (last time it was wrong too about the second move ). I'm riding the long up and then we will see what price action tells us.
  • #2,278
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:23am Dec 18, 2006 7:23am
Quoting forexnovice
price just touched 9490.... u long or not?
yup 9495. SL -30pips to avoid susprises... If down, I catch up the retracement...
  • #2,279
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:25am Dec 18, 2006 7:25am
good luck guys....fastened my seatbelts with a 30 pip stop
  • #2,280
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:28am Dec 18, 2006 7:28am
News Current Account: -226B
Forecast: -228B
Prior: -218B
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