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  • #338,481
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:12am Dec 3, 2010 5:12am
Quoting harryodal
Why the f**k is the EURUSD pair going up and when is it going to return in its right direction (south). Am surprised that despite figures coming from the US and the trouble bubbling in the EURO zone we have this situation I wasn't expecting this kind of price movements (north) or are some Asians playing some games here. I really need this pair to finish this move and continue downwards as it should have been doing in the first place.
its probably a fake-ass move to screw with us as usual, close your short term positions before nfp. anything within a 150 pip radius probably will be NFP's food. If you really believe this thing is going down, a higher price to short from wouldnt hurt.
  • #338,482
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:12am Dec 3, 2010 5:12am
Quoting harryodal
Why the f**k is the EURUSD pair going up and when is it going to return in its right direction (south). Am surprised that despite figures coming from the US and the trouble bubbling in the EURO zone we have this situation I wasn't expecting this kind of price movements (north) or are some Asians playing some games here. I really need this pair to finish this move and continue downwards as it should have been doing in the first place.


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Die Steine ... at its best ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #338,483
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:14am Dec 3, 2010 5:14am
Quoting Pipwanderer
imo we are due for some more we just up about 50+ pips. i have a target of at least 3288 3359 hopefully. are your speculations equal as well

thanks

I was commenting on a few posters here buying right before 3262, as it is in the process of forming a resistance, not a level I would entertain for entries. Is it going to form a top that is sustainable, give it a bit of time and it will tell us. Entries at these levels are always highly risky and price could bounce either way taking out tight stops or making a trader change its mind on spikes.

IT is freaky Friday. Euro is getting mixed messages with Greece and Portugal downgraded today but the spreads tightening on all peripheral bonds, couple that with December volatility and you get my reason for posting that earlier post to those buying at 3262.

I covered my longs from earlier in the day and am flat watching the net effect of the little drama unfolding at this level. I have no bias yet to 3290.

On the lower TF's 3240-3250 will need to remain support for 3290 to have a chance in this run. It is going to be messy for a while and I prefer the higher probability setups.

Technically I am looking at a wedge/pennant forming 3240-3262
  • #338,484
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:14am Dec 3, 2010 5:14am
Quoting sisse
Judging from your main down TL yes I agree (the other red lines I couldn't decode).

The test & rejection play looks too clear to be true (so it probably is) and there is no TA signals so far that the TL will not hold from a daily perspective. However, that last leg down was out of panic (which is not good for TA) and on the weekly if the R level 1.330x gets broken back with a rejection bar (the one is forming) the outlook will change and we'll be back to pre-panic mode which mean from a TA perspective that at least the slope of the downtrend...

Hi Sisse,

for me, out of Elliott Wave sight, it is normal, that the wave down now gets even steeper, because we are in a primary wave 3, and I would be extremely surprised when things would get flat. We will accelerate even more.
  • #338,485
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:15am Dec 3, 2010 5:15am
Quoting moonchild
You may get it but I just do not think it is likely to go much above 1.3050. This is particularly true given the fundamentals in addition to the technicals.
It may or may not depending on hourly chart and NFP data later. I will only trade when I see a clearer picture on a macro view. Having said that, if NFP and Employment rate data release is good for US$, then I will go shorting the pair and TP at 1.2900.

Cheers!
  • #338,486
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:16am Dec 3, 2010 5:16am
Quoting harryodal
Why the f**k is the EURUSD pair going up and when is it going to return in its right direction (south). Am surprised that despite figures coming from the US and the trouble bubbling in the EURO zone we have this situation I wasn't expecting this kind of price movements (north) or are some Asians playing some games here. I really need this pair to finish this move and continue downwards as it should have been doing in the first place.
The thing is a retracement is a healthy sign of a downtrend move so you should not complain too much. I think you'll get 1.27...
  • #338,487
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:17am Dec 3, 2010 5:17am
Quoting harryodal
Yeah, really but not drowning yet though very worried and getting impatient. Sold almost at the trough.

We are riding a wave on the back of ECB money, look at the spreads on Portuguese and Spanish debt, all shrinking.
  • #338,488
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:18am Dec 3, 2010 5:18am
Quoting cloggie
I was commenting on a few posters here buying right before 3262, as it is in the process of forming a resistance, not a level I would entertain for entries. Is it going to form a top that is sustainable, give it a bit of time and it will tell us. Entries at these levels are always highly risky and price could bounce either way taking out tight stops or making a trader change its mind on spikes.

IT is freaky Friday. Euro is getting mixed messages with Greece and Portugal downgraded today but the spreads tightening on all peripheral bonds, couple...
Ditto!
  • #338,489
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:20am Dec 3, 2010 5:20am
Quoting Fazpips
It may or may not depending on hourly chart and NFP data later. I will only trade when I see a clearer picture on a macro view. Having said that, if NFP and Employment rate data release is good for US$, then I will go shorting the pair and TP at 1.2900.

Cheers!
I think that I would interpret the news in a totally different way. If the news is terrible for the US then the money will flock to the USD and EU will drop. Conversely, if the news is good, the risk appetite increases and money will go toward other currencies and EU is likely to go up, at least temporarily. Given the situation in Portugal, it might not last long.
  • #338,490
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:22am Dec 3, 2010 5:22am
Quoting mercy seat
Jawohl ... gut so ... well done then ...

We will come to our unwinding points soon then ...

Entry-limits
1.3197 + 1.3172 + 1.3159

Key-points
1.3265 + 1.3285 + 1.3323

After NFP we might find us in another setup ... who will know that now (?!) ...

Last year ... it has been Friday - Dec 4th - when a major trend has been changed ...

Keep that in mind ...
i like your pivots an spezis..what are those..you care to share..good insight
i will confirm on that
thanks
  • #338,491
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:23am Dec 3, 2010 5:23am
Quoting moonchild
I think that I would interpret the news in a totally different way. If the news is terrible for the US then the money will flock to the USD and EU will drop. Conversely, if the news is good, the risk appetite increases and money will go toward other currencies and EU is likely to go up, at least temporarily. Given the situation in Portugal, it might not last long.
Good contrarian. I like your approach.
  • #338,492
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:27am Dec 3, 2010 5:27am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Sisse,

for me, out of Elliott Wave sight, it is normal, that the wave down now gets even steeper, because we are in a primary wave 3, and I would be extremely surprised when things would get flat. We will accelerate even more.
I am not an expert on EW but yes I see and understand your point. From that perspective your are 100% right, however it seems extremely unprovable from a fundamental perspective a even sharper slope down.

Just doing a quick check with my charting tools, a projection of wave 3 (assuming it start at the daily TL) with a very conservative 10% degrees increase in the slope gives a "nice" projected value of +/-1.19 (which is this years low) however that implies that before this year ends price should have reached that level which seems even more unlikely. Thats why I said that the daily TL slope is maybe not sustainable & it was made out of panic and it needs to correct if it wants to keep the move down.

In any case, this is a very general opinion while we wait for NFP, plus I don't use or know in depth EW.

Best of luck

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #338,493
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:31am Dec 3, 2010 5:31am
Quoting amjilt
Down trend from 1.3290
Attachment
If u post it doesn't increase the chances to happen
Wait till NFP and see after.
  • #338,494
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:34am Dec 3, 2010 5:34am
Morning everybody.

Successful night with my dollar short and euro long.

Hope you caught lot of pips, too!

Where do you think NFP will send euro?
  • #338,495
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:35am Dec 3, 2010 5:35am
I agree with Malcolmb, the big boys do know the outcome of the news way before we do.Its very possible (now that the pattern targets are met) that NFP will take it down. But who knows for sure, just trade your charts. On the hourly chart, price reached its ABC pattern target, then news took it down to test the NL only to immediately bring it back to pre news prices. Now the price is close to the inverse target and it could actually have already met the target if my calculation are off a bit. For me, the patterns tell me what the pro's are doing.
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  • #338,496
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:35am Dec 3, 2010 5:35am
Dow futures look like they could be starting to hit a roof. If we see a break of the ascending trend line it may take us to the bottom of the range and through this onto support at around 11,290 area which should help EURUSD move lower.

On the H4 chart hitting the 50% Fib level at around 1.3375 which may coincide with the descending trend line should make for some good selling pressure. Currently seeing resistance at the first Fib level and resistance which may be the end of the correction if the Dow futures drop through the trend line. NFP should be interesting later to see where we go from here.


Dow Futures M5
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H4
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  • #338,497
  • Edited 5:47am Dec 3, 2010 5:37am | Edited 5:47am
if it wasn't for nfp, i'd say that this is a pretty good, if not fantastic rrr to short here. lots of confluence and even this, close to the pip.
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  • #338,498
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:41am Dec 3, 2010 5:41am
Quoting cloggie
On the lower TF's 3240-3250 will need to remain support

Technically I am looking at a wedge/pennant forming 3240-3262
Support zone is being tested, it is not looking too good for those who bought 3262 earlier. 3242 will be a pretty hard line in the sand, that giving will mean the buyers will need to reasses what they are doing.

And maybe, just maybe they will stop from buying possible tops the next time, wishful thinking probably. We do need to keep those averages up.

As most here know, I only trade the confirmed directional moves showing clear triggers for continuation, the "fat" part of a intermediate directional trend. Buying a possible top or taking trades within obvious ranges that are about to form without a clear break or at least a good signal for further direction is just gambling in my book.
  • #338,499
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:47am Dec 3, 2010 5:47am
Quoting johnnyrei
Morning everybody.

Successful night with my dollar short and euro long.

Hope you caught lot of pips, too!

Where do you think NFP will send euro?
good question ... another question ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #338,500
  • Dec 3, 2010 5:48am Dec 3, 2010 5:48am
Quoting fosking
Dow futures look like they could be starting to hit a roof.
I disagree with that view. IMO, you need to check the bigger picture (or at least the Dax before US opens). Yesterday most stock markets confirmed a key daily/weekly and yearly high (and the ES stayed a few ticks below). That level was key in any traders book.

The hard part is done & I do agree that it could be profit taking after the huge effort of breaking the cap since the financial crisis started. However, mania buying is too common in stock markets to ignore.

IMO, what are you seeing in your tiny 5 mins ES (out of hours) chart is the normal behavior before NFP and I wouldn't dare to call from that chart a roof,bottom, rejection or anything. It just dead waters.

We'll see.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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