Disliked{quote} I see Bullish USD regardless... at least for the rest of the year anyway. After that, it will go back to it's normal engineered depreciation.Ignored
Bullish USD or Bearish EUR?
So bullish: I can see quite a few bumps on road to happy Europe, which will definitely weaken the currency, but all only short term. Am also prepared for a sellof in Yen, resulting yet again in strength of USD. Effects of QE are diminishing and corporate earning in USA werent great either, so we may be set for a sellof in SaP. Yields on 10y treasuries suggest selling pressures in bond market.
Bearish: However, see gold? I am kinda bullish, so there is a reason for weakness of USD here. And how about cracking retail sector in USA. It may and will dampen consumer spending, thus GDP. And how about that unemployment (err, I mean labour participation rate).
Most of bullish arguments are tied to failing QE. Well, we could as well have QE cubed, while the old one isnt working as desired. Unlike bearish arguments, which are linked to the real product and the real buying pressure from East. Well, not saying there is any improvement in Europe, but ... QE cubed. Moreover, also Kuroda-san is buing treasuries, so we may have QE expanded from Japan as well.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates