Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses | Page 13 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Major Pairs/Crosses - Trading Scenarios, Analyses & Forecasts 15 replies

Weekly/Monthly TOP Gainers Forexfactory Traders 4 replies

Long Term Analyses - EURUSD, GOLD, and S&P 76 replies

USD/CAD - Loonie Toons, & mostly pointless analyses 2 replies

Lazy analyses thread 56 replies

Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
Exit Attachments

Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #241
  • Oct 1, 2017 5:11pm Oct 1, 2017 5:11pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a period of consolidation, the pair is disposed southward. On the weekly time frame, last week a bearish continuation candlestick formed. However, the last sessions of last week saw a strong attempt by bulls to restrain this move. And an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of December 2016 is still intact.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_1st_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 33 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is operating within an ascending channel (bound by navy coloured lines) formed by the support trendline seen on the weekly time frame and a resistance trendline from the high of July 28, 2017. Two price waves have formed within the channel and third is in play from the distal channel line. The most recent price action has reached a significant support zone and this is in confluence with a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of June 1, 2017. The price action on Thursday and Friday last week was under the control of bulls and we may see a retracement to an area of value before further southward move. The target of such a retracement is likely to be the 0.79015 area, which is the immediate minor resistance on the daily time frame. However, should price action continue without a retracement, a break southward is likely to target the 0.77140 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_1st_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 35 KB


Price action on the H4 timeframe is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour). The technicals are largely biased in favour of bears. Therefore, very much likely and based on the bgiger picture from the weekly and daily time frames, we may expect a southward continuation in the medium term. The immediate target of such a southward move is the 0.78700 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_2_1st_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 36 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #242
  • Oct 1, 2017 5:38pm Oct 1, 2017 5:38pm
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for a pullback towards the 1290.90/12.95.70 zone before looking for a sell trading opportunity. This zone is the immediate minor resistance and is in confluence with the 38.2/50 Fib zone of the most recent significant swing on the H4 time frame .

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The bearish rejection candlestick, in the shape of a pinbar, formed on the monthly time frame last month gives a high probability of a southward orientation on this pair. This candlestick was formed around a significant resistance zone. A support trendline (chocolate colour) is noticeable on the monthly time frame, but price action is too far from the trendline. We may expect price action to move towards retesting the trendline in the weeks ahead. {image} On the weekly time frame, a bearish continuation pattern is...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #243
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:04pm Oct 8, 2017 4:04pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has resumed a bearish mode on the weekly time frame after breaking a support trendline from the low of April 2017. Last week, the bears pushed price action into a weekly horizontal support zone but the bulls resisted the move. On the daily time frame, price action has ben ranging for over eight days after breaking the support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of April 2017. The most recent price action is retracing upward and may target the 1.18225 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_8th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 29 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is makng a move upward into an area of value, it may target the 1.18510 area; which is proximal to the monthly central pivot. Nevertheless, we may expect a trendline (navy colour) from the high of August 20, 2017 to act as resitance. It will be interesting to see how price action behaves around this trendline.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_8th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 30 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #244
  • Oct 8, 2017 4:38pm Oct 8, 2017 4:38pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Four weeks ago, price action on this pair entered the 50.0 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. Since then price action on the pair has commenced a bearish descent. Last week, a strong bearish candlestick broke below the monthly central pivot. With the technicals on the weekly time frame disposed southward, we may expect a bearish continuation to target the immediate support around the 1.28850 area; this may extend to a significant support around the 1.27115 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_8th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 29 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (navy colour) from the high of September 20, 2017. However, as the recent price action is a bit far from the trendline, we may expect a pullback to retest it before any further southward move. It should be noted that an ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of March 14, 2017 is acting as support and could be a natural target for a bearish move. Should this support trendline break, price action is likely to target the next horizontal support around the 1.27115 area. The technicals on the daily time frame are disposed southward.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_8th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 34 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has broken an inner support trendline (magenta colour) and heading towards a major support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the daiy time frame. The last two sessions on Friday saw a bullish move to push price upward. Should the bulls succeed in this move, we may see a retracement to the immediate horizontal support around the 1.32000 area or a retest of the support trendline (magenta colour) turned resistance before price action heads southward with a potential, initial target being the major support trendline (chocolate colour), which may extend to the horizontal support around the 1.27115 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_8th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 33 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #245
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:29pm Oct 8, 2017 5:29pm
How I will trade this pair? I am bearish on this pair and I will be interested in a sell trading opportunity should price action pull back into the 1.32000 area, specifically to within the zone between 1.31396 and 1.32116 (bound by saddlebrown coloured hprizontal lines) on the H4 chart.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP


Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook Four weeks ago, price action on this pair entered the 50.0 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. Since then price action on the pair has commenced a bearish descent. Last week, a strong bearish candlestick broke below the monthly central pivot. With the technicals on the weekly time frame disposed southward, we may expect a bearish continuation to target the immediate support around the 1.28850 area; this may extend to a significant support around the 1.27115 area....
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #246
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:31pm Oct 8, 2017 5:31pm
How will I trade this pair? I am bearish on this pair. I will wait for price action to retrace into the area between 1.18238 and 1.18668 (bound in magenta coloured lines) before looking for a sell trade. Also, should the resistance trendline (navy colour) on the H4 hold, this may provide a sell trading opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has resumed a bearish mode on the weekly time frame after breaking a support trendline from the low of April 2017. Last week, the bears pushed price action into a weekly horizontal support zone but the bulls resisted the move. On the daily time frame, price action has ben ranging for over eight days after breaking the support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of April 2017. The most recent price action is retracing upward and may target the 1.18225 area. {image} On the H4 time frame, price action...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #247
  • Oct 15, 2017 3:45pm Oct 15, 2017 3:45pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish disposition began by the pair three weeks ago continued with a bearish pinbar formed around the monthly central pivot last week. This apparently is an indication that we may expect further bearish move in the days ahead. Price action in the past three weeks has been around the 61.8 Fib zone of the drop from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_15th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 35 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has broken the support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 14, 2017. Together with a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of July 11, 2017, it was apparent that price action has been operating in a wedge for quite a while. Although the wedge is apparently breached southward, a support trendline (magenta colour) from the highs formed between July and early September 2017 is still intact and will have to be breached before we can expect momentum for a bearish continuation. Should this happen, a likely target for such a bearish move is the 129.970 area, the origin of the most recent swing high. Otherwise, we may expect price action to move sideways for a while or retest the 133.800 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_15th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


Price action was operating in a wedge on the H4 time frame for a long while in September and October. The wedge is not yet broken, particularly considering that the wedge support (dark violet colour) on the H4 time frame is still not decisively breached even though that of the D1 time frame (navy colour) has been breached. Therefore, we may expect a retracement, perhaps to retest the wedge resistance (red colour); although the support trendline on D1 turned resistance may be an initial target of such a retest. We may expect the 133.100/350 area to be a magnet of such a retracement before a turnaround for a bearish continuation materializes. The technicals on the H4 time frame are disposed southward..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_15th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 38 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #248
  • Oct 15, 2017 4:02pm Oct 15, 2017 4:02pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish tone maintained on the monthly time frame is still very much alive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_MN_15th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 33 KB


On the weekly time frame, price action has been largely ambivalent in the past two weeks. Currently, price action is in a flip zone and last week the price action formed an indecision candlestick at the 61.8 Fib of the most recent swing high, although the technicals favour the bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_15th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 36 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (navy colour). Two major price waves have been formed within the channel, with the the second having a bullish disposition. The most recent price action is favorably under the control of bears and we may expect the third price wave to dispose southward, targeting the proximal channel line. But along the way we may see barriers around the monthy central pivot (in the 1.22530 area) and around the 1.22150 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_15th_October,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (magenta colour) for a long while, this is apparently the second price wave in the descending channel seen on the D1 time frame. This ascending channel has been broken by price action last week Tuesday. The last session on last week Friday resulted in a bearish candlestick and is likely to be the beginning of the third leg down, to align with the major technical disposition on the monthly, weekly and daily time frames. Thus, we may expect a bearish continuation in the days ahead. Before then, we may see a retracement northward; the area between 1.25500 and 1.25900 (bound by red coloured horizontal lines) is likely to be attractive to bulls as a target. Thereafter, we are likely to see a bearish turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_15th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 39 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #249
  • Oct 15, 2017 4:15pm Oct 15, 2017 4:15pm
I am bearish on this pair. I will wait for a retracement to one of the significant resistance trendlines or the 133.100/350 area before looking for a sell trading opportunity. Specifically, I will look for a retracement into the zone between 133.065 and 133.345 (bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines on the H4 time frame) before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook The bearish disposition began by the pair three weeks ago continued with a bearish pinbar formed around the monthly central pivot last week. This apparently is an indication that we may expect further bearish move in the days ahead. Price action in the past three weeks has been around the 61.8 Fib zone of the drop from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016. {image} On the daily time frame, price action has broken the support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 14, 2017. Together with a resistance...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #250
  • Oct 15, 2017 4:18pm Oct 15, 2017 4:18pm
Here's how I plan to trade this pair.

I am bearish on this pair. Should price action offer a sell trading opportunity around the present location, which is a minor flip zone on the H4 time frame, I will enter a sell trade. Otherwise, I will wait for price to retrace to an area of technical value, much likely to the area between 1.25500 and 1.25900 (bound by red coloured horizontal lines on the H4 chart) before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP


Quoting KeenPips
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook The bearish tone maintained on the monthly time frame is still very much alive. {image} On the weekly time frame, price action has been largely ambivalent in the past two weeks. Currently, price action is in a flip zone and last week the price action formed an indecision candlestick at the 61.8 Fib of the most recent swing high, although the technicals favour the bears. {image} On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (navy colour). Two major price waves have been formed within the...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #251
  • Oct 17, 2017 4:22pm Oct 17, 2017 4:22pm
Technical Update on USDCAD

Patience is important for success in this business. Here's an update on the USDCAD. As you can see in the attached H4 chart, price action retraced exactly into the area of value I planned to trade from based on my weekly analysis. In fact, price action formed a bearish pinbar covering that same zone I targeted. But it took quite a while for this to materialize. I never chase price. If price went further without retracement so be it.

I am not always right. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Technical_Update_H4_17th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 37 KB


Quoting KeenPips
Here's how I plan to trade this pair. I am bearish on this pair. Should price action offer a sell trading opportunity around the present location, which is a minor flip zone on the H4 time frame, I will enter a sell trade. Otherwise, I will wait for price to retrace to an area of technical value, much likely to the area between 1.25500 and 1.25900 (bound by red coloured horizontal lines on the H4 chart) before looking for a sell trading opportunity. I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #252
  • Oct 22, 2017 3:30pm Oct 22, 2017 3:30pm
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has disposed northward since six months ago. Although last month there was a southward correction, the northward orientation is still very much intact. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of November 2015. However, current price action is operating in an ascending channel with a resistance trendline (purple colour) from the high of March 2017 and the support trendline from the low of November 2015. Two main price waves have formed in the channel and a third price wave is yet to form as the price action of the past four weeks has been in a consolidation. Besides, price action is currently at a location which has served as a significant S/R zone for a couple of times in the past. And there is a counter trendline (red colour) from the price action since August 2017. If price action respects this counter trendline next week, this may hinder further northward move. The 0.87710 area is a likely target for bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_22_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 47 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 2017. This support trendline, together with the counter trendline (red colour) seen on the weekly time frame, formed a triangle pattern for price action on the daily time frame. Notice that there was a 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of August 29, 2017 to the low of September 27, 2017. The short-term technicals are in support of a southward disposition of price action. This may see the bears target the immediate support around the 0.87710 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_22_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 55 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (magenta colour) since September 2017. An upper channel gave way to a lower channel last week after two price waves were formed in it. Two price waves have since formed in the lower channel. The last session on Friday resulted in a doji-like candlestick and we may have to wait for clarity of price action in the early part of next week. Price action may result in a pullback into the channel to the 0.89700 area before a southward turnaround. But, should price action break the support channel line, a likely target for bears is the major support around the 0.87710 area. However, bears may have to contend with the barrier in the 0.88830 area before this target is reached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_22_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 53 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #253
  • Oct 22, 2017 3:50pm Oct 22, 2017 3:50pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been disposed northward since April 2017. On the weekly time frame, price action has moved further northward from respecting an outer support trendline (forest green colour) to respecting an inner support trendline (chocolate colour), denoting an increase in northward momentum. A descending trendline (black colour) from the high of November 2014 is acting as resistance. Price action in the past four weeks have been in consolidation but last week a relatively bullish candlestick was formed. Any follow-through will lead to the break of the resistance trendline (black colour) and may target the 136.190 area, the immediate horizontal resistance zone. This area was last visited by price action in October 2015. The technicals are in support of further northward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_22_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 47 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is respecting the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the weekly time frame. In fact, price action is operating in an ascending channel (bound by chocolate-coloured lines) and two price waves have formed in the channel; a third price wave is bearing northward. This may target the resistance trendline (black colour) seen on the weekly time frame and extend to the next horizontal resistance around the 136.190 area. However, an immediate barrier is around the 134.400 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_22_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 44 KB


Price action on the H4 time frame is disposed northward, reflecting the direction of the third price wave in the ascending channel seen on the daily time frame. However, an immediate barrier to the move is located around the 134.346 area. Should this barrier hold we may see a retracement of price action or a sideways operation turnaround at that location. This location is more than 200 pips below the resistance trendline seen on the weekly time frame but aligned with the S/R zone which was last visited by price action on September 22, 2017. Therefore, price action may be expected to go beyond that level after a period of retracement or sideways operation. But it is important to note that this location is around the 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016 and is susceptible to a southward turnaround. Although a support trendline (blue colour) is still being respected by price action on the H4 time frame, a northward trade is likely to be for a limited profit until clarity in price action is seen during next week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_22_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #254
  • Oct 22, 2017 3:59pm Oct 22, 2017 3:59pm
I am neutral on this pair. There is need to step aside for a while in the early part of next week for clarity of price action and market direction. However, if price action retraces to around the 0.89700 area this may offer an opportunity to look for a sell trade.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has disposed northward since six months ago. Although last month there was a southward correction, the northward orientation is still very much intact. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of November 2015. However, current price action is operating in an ascending channel with a resistance trendline (purple colour) from the high of March 2017 and the support trendline from the low of November 2015. Two main price waves have formed in the...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #255
  • Oct 29, 2017 3:25am Oct 29, 2017 3:25am
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been operating in a channel (bound by navy coloured lines) since August 2015. On the weekly time frame, price action has formed two price waves within thechannel. The channel was broken southward during the first week in October 2017. Since then, price action has been under the control of bears. Current price action is at significant S/R zone. Last week, an indecision candlestick was formed in the zone but the technical favour a bearish disposition. Should there be a bearish continuation this week, a likely targetof bears is the 0.66845 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_29th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


On the daily time frame, a resistance trendline from the high of September 21, 2017 is still intact. However, price action has moved too far from an area of value and we may expect a pullback to the upside before the bearish mood is continued. Last week Friday, price action on the daily time frame resulted in a bullish candlestick. This may result in a pullback to an area of value before a southward continuation. I will be watching any pullback to the area between 0.69437 and 0.70415 for opportunity of a sell trade. This area is bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines on the attached daily chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_29th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 32 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #256
  • Oct 29, 2017 3:35am Oct 29, 2017 3:35am
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been operating in an ascending channel since March 2017. On the weekly time frame, the channel was breached southward by price action during the third week of September 2017. A period of sideways operation followed for three weeks before a bearish move was begun last week. The technicals are disposed for a bearish continuation. The 1.14205/1.15040 zone is the immediate support and may be a magnet for bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_29th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 24 KB


On the H4 timeframe, price action has been ranging (area bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines) since late September 2017. Last week Thursday, price action broke the range southward. But the last session on Friday saw the bulls pushing price back northward. If the bulls succeed in this move in the early part of this week, we may see price action retesting the range before any southward turnaround. I will be interested in a retracement to the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing down; from where I will look for a sell trading opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_29th_Oct.,_2017.png Size: 27 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #257
  • Nov 5, 2017 12:41pm Nov 5, 2017 12:41pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After the drop of price from the high of May 2014, on the weekly time frame, price action on this pair since February 2015 to December 2016 has been consolidating. A retracement of price action to the 50 Fib level of the drop from the high of May 2014 to the low of December 2016 was seen on this pair in September 2017. Thereafter, price action has turned southward respecting a resistance trendlne (chocolate colour) from the high of September 2017. A trendline line from the low of January 2017 (navy colour) is in play. The most recent price action has been bearish and has breached the monthly central pivot. The technicals on the weekly time frame support a southward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_5th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 47 KB


On the daily time frame, a head-and-shoulder pattern has emerged from the price action of July 27 to October 26, 2017. After a break of the neckline (magenta colour), the most recent price action has been consolidating and a further southward move can be expected to follow. The natural target for such southward move is the 1.13210 area, which is around the immediate major support but this may not be smooth sailing as a lot of barriers are on the way.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_5th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 52 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action which has been operating in an ascending channel since March 2017 started bearing southward in a descending channel in September 2017. Last week, the most recent price action consolidated against the impulsive southward move and can be expected to give way to a bearish continuation. The technicals on the H4 time frame favour further southward move. A break of the channel support is likely to target the 1.13210 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_5th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 62 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #258
  • Edited 1:26pm Nov 5, 2017 1:12pm | Edited 1:26pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a drop from the high of January 2016 to the low of January 2017, the pair retraced to the 38.2 Fib zone in April 2017 and consolidated in that area for a while before it bore southward. A resistance trendline on the monthly time frame (red colour) from the high of January 2016 is still very much respected.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_MN_5th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 48 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has moved further downward and below the resistance trendline (red colour) seen on the monthly timeframe. It is now respecting an inner resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of May 25, 2016. A trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 6, 2017 is acting as support. This support trendline has held after two attempts by price action to break it. A third attempt to break the support trendline was made last week Friday but the bulls managed to hinder such attempt. Should price action break the support trendline, a likely target is the 1.62220 area. Otherwise, price action may retrace upward to retest the 1.71185 area, the origin of the most recent swing down. This may expose the 1.72960 area, the immediate resistance zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_5th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 61 KB


It is apparent on the H4 time frame that price action on this pair is operating in an ascending channel. Two price waves have been formed within the channel and a third is bearing southward. Given that the impulsive move on the daily time frame is southward, we may expect a southward continuation to be the outcome of a break of the channel. The technicals on the H4 time frame are in favour of bears. An immediate target for bears is the 1.63740 area, the immediate minor horizontal support on the H4 time frame. This may expose the 1.62360 area, which is a major support zone. However, should price action fail to breakout of the channel southward, we may expect price action to retrace towards the channel resistance, with an initial target around 1.68430 area; which may extend to the 1.69220 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_5th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #259
  • Edited 2:34pm Nov 12, 2017 2:17pm | Edited 2:34pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has maintained a bearish disposition for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating around the 50 Fib zone of the swing down from the high of May 2017 to the low of September 2017. A resistance trendline (red colour) is still being respected by price action. The order flow context is largely under the influence of bears although the bulls took control of the retracement. The candlesticks formed in the past three weeks saw the bears taking charge of affairs and we may see further bearish continuation in the days ahead.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_12th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 47 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has broken an inner ascending trendline (magenta colour) and it is now bearing southward respecting a resistance trendline (forest green colour). Price action has moved southward within a channel formed by this resistance trendline and a support trendline from some of the recent lows but it is now located around a minor support area on the H4 time frame; this location is in confluence with the support provided by an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 8, 2017. We may see price action consolidate in this area for a while or pull back to retest the resistance trendline (upper forest green coloured trendline) before a bearish continuation. A break of support is likely to target the 1.25520 area. This may extend to the 1.24370 area, the next support on the H4 time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_12th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #260
  • Nov 12, 2017 2:25pm Nov 12, 2017 2:25pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been operating in an ascending channel (bound in chocolate coloured lines) on the weekly time frame since April 2017. Effective six weeks ago, price action has broken southward from this channel and is now operating in a south-bound channel (bound in navy coloured lines). Last week, the bulls managed to push the price northward, resulting in a a bearish rejection candlestick and they may succeed in pushing price to retest the immediate resistance around the 1.18440 area. A turnaround of price action is likely to either result in a bearish continuation or a period of sideways operation because the candlestick formed three weeks’ ago is currently engulfing the two candlesticks formed after it; thus acting as a master candlestick. Furthermore, it should be noted that the current price action is located around the 38.2 Fib zone of the swing up from the low of April 2017 (not shown in chart); thus we may have to wait for clarity of price action before entering a trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_12th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 49 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an area (bound by magenta colored horizontal lines) that has been a strong resistance zone since 2015. This zone was breached to the upside for some days in August and September 2017 but has since remained resistant. The most recent price action last week was bullish and we may expect a retest of the resistance (around 1.18645) before any southward turnaround. An ascending trendline (red colour) from the low of April 10, 2017 is acting as support. Should price action break this trendline southward, this may expose the next horizontal support around the 1.14485 area as a target of bears. Thus, it will be a good strategy to wait for price to break this support trendline southward before looking for a sell trading opportunity. Nevertheless, a rejection of the resistance line of the descending channel (navy colour) southward would offer a feasible sell trading opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_12th_Nov.,_2017.png Size: 45 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
2 traders viewing now