Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been largely north-bound for a relatively long period of time, although price action on a multi-year level has been within a defined range. Recent price action is at the distal part of the range. On the weekly time frame, the hammer-like candlestick formed two weeks ago was followed up by a bullish candlestick last week but the move lacked significant momentum as it was hindered by sellers who, towards the end of the session, pushed price southwards.

On the daily time frame, price action has moved northward of a major support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 6, 2017 and it is respecting an inner support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of June 23. However, for the most part of last week, daily price action has been in a consolidating mode. The most recent price action is at a distal part of the consolidation pattern and we may have another round of consolidation with a southward move towards the 1.13720 area, and even an extended pullback to the major support trendline (navy colour) before any further upward move. A successful break of the consolidation pattern upward is likely to meet resistance around the 1.15830 area. However, should price break the major support trendline (navy colour) southward, a likely target is the immediate support around the 1.12780 area. Such a move would be likely corrective in nature.



On the H4 time frame, price action has broken out distally from the channel (bound by two magenta-coloured horizontal lines) it formed a few weeks ago. However, we may expect another move southward to test the proximal part of the channel before momentum for a bullish operation can be assured. Alternatively, we may see price action move upward within a floating ascending channel (bound in chocolate coloured lines) formed by the support trendline from the low of June 23 and a resistance trendline from the high of July 7. This could happen if the hammer-like candlestick formed a session before the last H4 session on Friday is respected by price action. However, such a move is likely to be limited as the technicals are not in sync for a bullish momentum yet. A more sustainable operation is likely to be a short northward move followed by a southward turn-around to retest the support line of the horizontal channel (lower magenta-coloured line) around the 1.13290 area. This is likely to be medium-term in nature.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been in a consolidating mode since November 2016. Between November 2016 and March 2017 price action consolidated between 1.19890 and 1.26650. It then moved upwards for another phase of consolidation between 1.26650 and 1.30720.

On the weekly time frame, two ascending trendlines (navy coloured lines) from the low of January 2017 are serving as significant support lines for price action. The inner trendline clearly forms an ascending channel with the high of April 2017. Recent price action is within the channel and the bullish candlestick formed last week was towards the distal part of the channel. Further move of price action upward will have to contend with the distal channel line as well as the immediate resistance which is in the 1.32840 area. Should price action break out of the channel northward, a likely target will be the 1.35050 handle. This has held as a significant resistance since August 2016. Failure to break out of the channel is likely to see price action retest the support channel line.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating distally in a clear ascending channel and the order flow context is strongly in favour of buyers. Furthermore, the technicals are in sync for further northward move. A likely target for such a move is the 1.32840 area, which is the origin of a big drop for the selling that began in September 2016.

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On the H4 time frame, recent price action is parabolic in nature and is susceptible to retracement to an area of value. A likely area to watch will be the 30/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing high. This is shown in the khaki coloured rectangle, between 1.29143 and 1.30196.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued to be on the decline since three months ago. On the monthly time frame, it is apparent that price action is heading towards the zone, highlighed by 1.24668, that formed the origin of a rally upward in July 2014. That zone was last visited in May 2016 and consummated in a bulish operation but is now within the grasps of sellers, just about 175 pips southward of recent price action. This is also a support/proximal zone of the consolidating pattern which began in July 2014.

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On the weeky time frame,since May 2017, price action has been under the control of sellers. Presently, price action is within an S/R area and may target 1.22310. The technicals on the weekly time frame seem to support further southward move before any bullish operation can be expected, moreso as a consolidation pattern has formed between the 1.22310 area and the 1.37050 area.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) from June 2017 after moving below an outer descending trendline (navy colour). The most recent price action was a strong bearish move after a period of consolidation. Sellers may be able to sell further southward before buyers are attracted. Thus, a retracement may not be immediate. Any retracement, however, is likely to be in an area of value, much likely leading to a retest of the inner descending trendline.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been operating in a multi-year consolidation pattern or range (bound by two magenta-coloured horizontal lines) for a long while. On the weekly time frame, five price waves have formed within the range, beginning from March 15, 2015. The most recent price wave hit the distal part of the range last week but could not breach it. Since the major trend is disposed southward, much likely the follow-up action price may turn southward; although we may see a slight upward move of about 30-50 pips before this turnaround.



On the daily time frame, price action has moved northward respecting an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 2017. A much likely follow-up price action is a retest of the trendline at an area of value, much likely at the most recent horizontal support zone; this is around the 1.14520 area. We may see a brief period of consolidation or a slight upward move of about 30-50 pips before this.

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On the H4 time frame, price action has moved away from the outer ascending trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame to respect an inner ascending trendline (magenta coour). The last H4 session on Friday resulted in a bearish pinbar or shooting star. If this is followed through by price action this week, we should expect a southward turnaround, perhaps to test the trendline. Should the trendline be broken southward, this may target the outer/lower trendline (navy colour), perhaps around the 1.14520 area.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on a decline since May 2017. The monthly time frame shows strong technical support for further bearish operation.



On the daily time frame, the order flow context is in favour of sellers and an outer resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of April 2017 is still in tact. Price action has moved further downward to respect an inner resistance trendline (navy colour) from the the high of April 2017 but the most recent price action has entered a significant support zone around the 1.62310 area.

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On the H4 time frame, although sellers were favored for a long period, buyers have stepped up their struggle. The most recent price action on Friday saw buyers pressing sellers to constrain their move southward resulting in indecision candlesticks that indicate a likely retracement upward. Should buyers be successful in their push, a likely area price action may target is immediate minor resistance between 1.64518 and 1.65364 range (bound by two magenta-coloured horizontal lines).

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued on the decline started three months ago. On the wekly time frame, the order flow is under the control of sellers. However, price action is now entering a significant support zone which was last visited in April 2016. Thus, we may expect some hesitating or sideways movement of price action around the 1.24668 area.



On the H4 time frame, the candlesticks are increasingly getting smaller in size and mixed in nature. This suggests a weakness in southward momentum. Much likely there wil be a retracement to an area of value before any significant push southward can materialize. A natural area price action may retrace to is the immediate minor resistance around the 1.27140 area.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Here's an update on the EURUSD:

There is nothing spectacularly different from the analysis we did on this pair on Sunday. Price action on the pair retraced to retest the ascending trendline we noted on the daily time frame in the analysis done three days ago. It is now upward turning perhaps to target the immediate resistance zone around the 1.1700 area or the distal end of the range noted on Sunday. The bigger technical outlook is southerly disposed.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been operating in a multi-year consolidation pattern or range (bound by two magenta coloured horizontal lines) for a long while. On the weekly time frame, five price waves have formed within the range, beginning from March 15, 2015. The most recent price wave pierced the distal part of the range and last week moved about 80 pips above it. However, sellers intervened and price action yielded some ground ending with less than 60 pips above the distal part, around the 1.17485 area. Furthermore, price action is respecting a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of May 2017. Should buyers regain control, a likely target is the immediate resistance around the 1.18700 area. Otherwise, we may see sellers push price action southward, perhaps to target the immediate support around the 1.16680 area or by extension a retest of the support trendline (chocolate colour).



On the H4 time frame, price action has moved above the support trendline seen on the weekly time frame and is operating in an ascending channel (bound by two navy coloured lines). Last week, price action within the channel was largely ambivalent or sideways around the distal end of the channel. Apparently momentum for a bullish drive is weakening and we may see a southward turnaround this week, perhaps to target the 1.16170 area which is the origin of the most recent rally northward, or by extension the proximal channel line.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD has continued the decline it began in May 2017. On the weekly time frame, price action is now within an S/R zone. Although sellers are still influential, judging by the decreasing size of candlesticks formed in the past two weeks compared to the one formed three weeks ago, it seems buyers are restraining the downward push. Should sellers manage to push price further downward, a likely target will be the next support zone around the 1.21690 area.



On the daily time frame, price action has moved below a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of May 2017. It is now respecting an inner resistance trendline (navy colour) from the high of June 2017, indicating an increase in momentum. Since then, price action has been under the dominant control of sellers until Thursday last week when buyers made a strong showing to push price up. This attempt was, however, strongly resisted by sellers on Friday. Nevertheless, the struggle may indicate that a real pullback of price action is in the offing; perhaps to retest the inner resistance trendline (navy colour).



On the H4 time frame, three descending price waves with accompanying pullbacks/consolidations have formed since price action moved below the outer trendline (chocolate colour) to the inner trendline (navy colour). On Thursday last week, the third descending price wave was consummated with the most significant retracement. But sellers stepped in on Friday to start another move southward. Presently price action is around a significant S/R zone. Should sellers manage to break down the zone, price action may target the next minor support around the 1.23290 area. Otherwise, we may see a retest of the intraday resistance trendline (magenta colour) or the 38.2/50 Fib retracement zone baed on the drop from the high of July 12 (Shown in khaki-coloured rectangle).



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Here's is a weekend update on the EURUSD. As shown in the attached weekly chart, price action turned around in the 1.8700 area and formed a pinbar at the resistance zone in line with the technical analysis done on July 30.

I am not always right. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Last week the price hit a significant resistance zone around the 1.18700 area and formed a bearish pin bar. We should expect a follow-through of price action for a southward push, perhaps after about 50.0 Fib retracement of the pinbar, which is around the 1.18170 area. An initial target of a southward move is the immediate support zone around the 1.16850 area or a retest of the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from May 2017.



On the H4 time frame, price action had moved far above an outer ascending trendline (magenta colour) from the low of June 20 and momentum took it towards an upper tendline (khaki colour) which was rejected southward last week Friday. However, the last session of last week Friday saw buyers moving price toward testing the rejected trendline and this may happen in the early part of this week in line with the pinbar formation noted on the weekly time frame. Thereafter, price action is likely to head back southward and may target the immediate support zone between 1.16850 and 1.16187.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been consolidating along an ascending channel (bound by chocolate-coloured lines) since April 2017. On the weekly time frame, last week, price action entered an area of resistance which was last visited in September 2016. But it swiftly met resistance by sellers. The week ended in a bearish pinbar which portends a likely southward turnaround. Should there be a follow through this week, a natural target for price action is the immediate support around the 1.28470 area. However, should there be a failure on the part of sellers, buyers may make a run to retest the resistance around the 1.32840 area.

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On the H4 time frame, price action was respecting an ascending trendline (magenta colour) from the low of June 20, 2017 but this was rejected southward on Friday last week. However, the last H4 session on Friday saw buyers push price further upward; this still fell far short of retesting the trendline. Should buyers manage to push price upward this week, an initial target is likely to be a retest of the trendline and, by extension, the immediate minor resistance around the 1.31350 area; an area that is in confluence with the 50 Fib retracement zone of the drop from last weeks high.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The decline which the USDCAD began in May 2017 suffered last week with a strong bullish resistance. On the weekly time frame, this happended as price action was operating for two weeks in a zone which held as support and was last visited in May 2016. However, to take price beyond the current level, buyers will have to contend with minor barriers, while the 1.27460 area may prove a significant resistance zone. Thus, in the early part of this week, we may see a brief retracement upward or a period of consolidation before price action makes a remarbale move; even though the technical disposition is southward in the medium term.

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On the daily time frame, buyers have managed to push price further up and a key target of any follow through during the week is around the immediate resistance band between 1.26880 and 1.27800. As the medium term technical disposition is southward, there maybe a turnaround thereafter for a bearish continuation.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair began a descent from the multi-year high of 2.09721 in December 2015. On the weekly time frame, price action made a 38.2 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of December 2015 to the low of January 2017 in May 2017. Since then, a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of December 2015 has not been breached by price action. Two weeks ago, a bearish pinbar formed around a weekly resistance zone but there was no follow through last week as the weekly candlestick formed was doji-like. If there is follow through this week, sellers may push the price to the 1.62311 area; which is the immediate support zone.



On the daily time frame, price action after the 38.2 Fib retracement in May 2017, has been in a descending channel (bound by navy coloured lines). Last week Tuesday, a bearish pin bar formed around the distal channel line and led to a period of sideways operation. A follow through of price action is likely to target the 1.62311 area as a first step toward hitting the proximal channel line. The technicals are in favour of a southward move.



On the H4 time frame, last week, price action breached a minor support trendline (magenta colour) but failed to follow through with a bearish momentum; rather a sideways operation ensued. The most recent technical context favours sellers and should this materialize, a potential target is in the 1.62861 area, the origin of the minor resistance trendline (magenta colour).



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on an upside move since May 2017. On the weekly time frame, a bearish pinbar was formed two weeks ago. However, it turned out to lack a follow through as the weekly candlestick formed last week was totally opposite. However, price action last week failed to take away the high of the previous week’s candlestick. As price action is currently in an area that has served as an S/R zone on a number of occasions in the past, we may expect a retest of the 1.19066 area in the early part of this week.



On the daily timeframe, price action was respecting a support trendline from the low of May 10, 2017. This formed an ascending channel with the high of March 28, 2017 (bound in navy coloured lines). The most recent price action is bullish in nature and showed increased momentum as an inner support trendline (chocolate colour) has developed. This may result in subsequent price action moving toward the distal channel line (navy colour), perhaps around the 1.19066 area, before any retracement is seen. As four price waves have consummated within the channel, we may see a fifth price wave heading southward after price action has tested the 1.19066 area. A potential target of a southward move is the immediate horizontal support around the 1.16205 area. This area is in confluence with the monthly pivot.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on the downside for some ime. However, on the weekly time frame, buyers strongly intervened to push price higher two weeks ago. Nevertheless, there was no follow through last week as the candlestick formed was miniature in size compared to the relatively big bullish candlestick formed two weeks ago. Besides, the tiny candlestick formed last week showed that sellers managed to seize control of the market toward the latter part of the week. Furthermore, price action has not breached a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of September 2012. In fact, the zone between 1.25752 and 1.23910 will have to be broken southward before we can have confidence in further bearish move. Should the zone be broken, price action is likely to target the 1.21567/1.21514 area first before any attempt is made on the 1.19010 handle.



On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within an ascending channel (bound by magenta lines). Price action has made four price waves within the channel, with the fourth price wave bearing southward around the proximal channel line. Given that the bigger technical direction is southward, we may expect a bearish continuation to result from a breakout of the channel. Meanwhile, the technicals on the H4 time frame are mixed. Much likely, there will be a period of consolidation in the early part of this week before momentum for a bearish continuation materializes. What happens around the monthly pivot (1.26346) should be of interest.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a drop from the high of December 2015 to the low of September 2016 and its 38.2 Fib retracement, which happened in April 2017, the pair has been on a southward move on the monthly time frame since May 2017.



On the weekly time frame, the pair is respeting a resistance trendline (forest green colour) from the high of January 2016. Besides, an inner resistance trendline from the high of May 2017 has developed, (chocolate colour) which indicates an increased southward momentum. Last week, a relatively strong bearish candlestick formed, which rejected the monthly central pivot southward and pierced a strong support zone around the 1.62300 area. This candlestick appeared to be a follow through of the bullish rejection candlestick (or bearish pinbar) formed three weeks ago. Should sellers maintain control of the order flow, a likely target is the 1.59760 area.



On the daily time frame, the pair has been consolidating in an area that has served as a strong S/R zone for quite some time (represented in khaki coloured rectangle, bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines). The most recent price action on Friday pierced the area southward but we may expect a pullback to an area of value, perhaps to around the 1.63950 area, before any bearish continuation/follow through. Should a bearish follow through fail, we may see price action move further northward towards the distal part of the range, probably to around the 50/61.8 Fib retracement zone (between 1.64000 and 1.64980) of the drop from the swing high of August 3 to the low of August 18. This may be limited by the minor resistance line (navy colour), as it is near the most immediate area of value technically. The H4 time frame provides a clearer picture of this possibility.





I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on the decline since December 2014. On the weekly time frame, price action which swung from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016 entered the 50 Fib retracement zone seven weeks ago. Price action consolidated for a few weeks in that zone and bore southward two weeks ago. Last week, a bearish continuation candlestick formed, piercing through some pivot areas like the monthly central pivot and a minor S/R zone. The confluence of a significant moving average and a trendline (deepblue colour) from the high of Dcember 2014 is a resistance to any northward push. A likely initial target of further southward move is the immediate minor support around the 126.595 area, which may expose the more significant spport around the 125.490 area.



On the H4 time frame, an ascending trendline (magenta colour) from the low of Aoril 21, 2017 acted as support for some time but was breached southward last week Friday by price action. The last seesion on Friday was a bearish follow-through after the previous candlestick retested the tendline flipping it to a resistance. A likely initial target of further southward move is the immediate minor support around the 126.595 area but there may be a period of sideways movement before an increased southward momentum.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on the downside for some time. However, on the weekly time frame, buyers strongly intervened to push price higher three weeks ago. Nevertheless, lack of follow-through two weeks ago opened an opportunity for bearish price action last week resulting in a rejection pinbar around a significant S/R zone breaching the monthly central pivot southward. The immediate barrier is a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of September 2012; this is in an area of the confluence of a significant moving average and a major support zone. Any break of this zone southward, which is between 1.25752 and 1.23910, is likely to give impetus to further bearish momentum. This may first expose the 1.21567/1.21514 area before targeting the 1.19010 handle. However, getting that far is not likely to materialize in the next 2-3 weeks.



On the H4 time frame, price action was respecting a resistance trendline (navy colour) from the high of May 5, 2017 for a while. However, this was rejected southward for an inner resistance trendline (magenta colour). But, last week, price action operated in a descending channel (bound by purple lines). The most recent price action is in an area of support and we may see a period of sideways move or perhaps a pullback, before further southward move materializes. Possible pullback areas to watch are the distal channel line, the monthly central pivot (1.26346) and the inner resistance trendline (magenta colour).



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on an upside move since May 2017. Three weeks ago, the pair was in a sideways operation within an ascending channel in an area that has served as an S/R zone on a number of occasions in the past. Last week price action moved to retest the distal part of the zone around the 1.19066 area; an area it had rejected southward four weeks ago.

On the daily time frame, a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of May 2017 is still in play. As price action has moved too far from an area of value technically and is at a horizontal resistance zone, we may expect a pullback to the trendline or a minor support area, say the 50/61.8 Fib retracement zone of the most recent swing up (between 1.18397 and 1.17995), before a further northward move.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (magenta colour) from the low of June 20, 2017. For much of July and August 2017, price action was consolidating within a descending channel (bound by navy coloured lines). This was breached distally by over 140 pips last week. We may expect price action to retest the distal part of the channel or the trendline (magenta colour) before further upward move. A break of the trendline southward on at least a daily close is likely to target the next significant support zone around the 1.16650 area.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP