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Daily Pivot Point Trades

  • #301
  • Jan 10, 2012 12:11pm Jan 10, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting the redlion
i do not think that disproves my claim

pull up the same chart and see that 1.30 was an area of support............what is the price today 1.2775?

as i said before all tools pose the question of " all things being equal............i can expect Ω to happen"

trend line= projected trajectory through velocity
s/r, s/d = historical extremes where orders execution was non existent past these levels
pivots,BB,ATR,= expected volatility
price formations= patterns of price movement
you name it...........and the question remains the same.

no...


The best tool box is of no use if you do not know how to use them........


With all the information you gave us now in this little discussion, maybe it is best to toss a coin?
  • #302
  • Jan 10, 2012 12:14pm Jan 10, 2012 12:14pm
no, I did not say that.

THESE are useful tools, but the problem comes in EXPECTING them to be infallible, TOOLS are important to OBSERVE AND EXTRAPOLATE.

but behind every decision there MUST BE THE QUESTION.
if my observations are wrong, what is my risk?
how do i mitigate it?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #303
  • Jan 10, 2012 12:22pm Jan 10, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting the redlion
i do not think that disproves my claim

pull up the same chart and see that 1.30 was an area of support............what is the price today 1.2775?

as i said before all tools pose the question of " all things being equal............i can expect Ω to happen"

trend line= projected trajectory through velocity
s/r, s/d = historical extremes where orders execution was non existent past these levels
pivots,BB,ATR,= expected volatility
price formations= patterns of price movement
you name it...........and the question remains the same.

[b]no...
The first pic is an H1 and price is contained as s/r pretty well with these pivots.

The second is the D1 using the Kumo as s/r from over two years ago, price clearly reacts around these areas.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EU D1.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #304
  • Jan 10, 2012 12:25pm Jan 10, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting the redlion
no, I did not say that.

THESE are useful tools, but the problem comes in EXPECTING them to be infallible, TOOLS are important to OBSERVE AND EXTRAPOLATE.

but behind every decision there MUST BE THE QUESTION.
if my observations are wrong, what is my risk?
how do i mitigate it?

OK. I see where this going now. Nothing is a given, there fore you have to use whats given. While I do take what the charts give me, I can look at it and expect some things to happen. If I knew for sure, then I would quite possibly be the richest man n the world. I am good, but I do not know everything. That is why I take what is given. But, I also use my analysis to determine whats gonna happen.
  • #305
  • Jan 10, 2012 3:39pm Jan 10, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting the redlion
the problem is that blind strategies do not work..... you HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THE THEORY BEHIND IT.

and UNDERSTAND THE MARKET YOU ARE TRADING.

can pivots work better in more trending markets?
...
See #272

Pivotals and/or other indicators might be only an accessories, a tool, a help. It don't guide you to the profit line. It's not the system alone, it's not the personality, it's not the market solely, ...everythings hangs on the whole...(e.g. #1196) and an experienced trader could collect all these different aspects and focus the one power (of intuition, or so). It's like an excellent piano player. He/she don't think which finger might be now where and when, how often on the keyboard when playing a composition and he hasn't work out the music paper long before. He's looking and is sensible of playing. Every trader has to play his own composition. These events are unprecedented.
Keep in touch with the market!
Kindest regards
FXcube
  • #306
  • Jan 10, 2012 3:58pm Jan 10, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting the redlion

to me elliot's best theory was not his count of waves........which are pretty ambiguous, you can see wave 1, i can say wave 3 and it is always easier expo facto,

his greatest contribution is the fact that he theorized that price MOVES IN WAVES
See See #288



My sentiments exactly!, ...but an experienced trader could make more money with elliots wave theory coz he has learn to apply it mutatis mutandis.
FXcube
  • #307
  • Jan 10, 2012 6:22pm Jan 10, 2012 6:22pm
Wow! This place exploded while I was away! Glad to see some life and discussion return.


I noticed that EURUSD wasn't ideal for using pivots for my primary S/R. While looking at just Daily data there looked to be an edge, but going down to the hourly data to see how the price flowed showed that too many times the price would hit the stop before going on to TP.

Price did generally respect the daily pivot values, that wasn't the issue. The issue was the bias aspect. I think that because of the size of the EURUSD and how news driven it is the values aren't as "strong". If I was going to trade at a lower TF with multiple trades per day then it's no problem, but my goal (for right now) is to limit my trades to once a day.

I am/have looked at the times when the daily pivots break down as a S/R and some other ways to filter potential trades. One simple one is to only take trades that have a positive R:R.

What I'm following might be nothing more than flipping a coin, but they say even that can be made to work.
  • #308
  • Jan 10, 2012 7:47pm Jan 10, 2012 7:47pm
Quoting BongaBonga
Wow! This place exploded while I was away! Glad to see some life and discussion return.


I noticed that EURUSD wasn't ideal for using pivots for my primary S/R. While looking at just Daily data there looked to be an edge, but going down to the hourly data to see how the price flowed showed that too many times the price would hit the stop before going on to TP.

Price did generally respect the daily pivot values, that wasn't the issue. The issue was the bias aspect. I think that because of the size of the EURUSD and how news driven it is the values...
All you need is a knucklehead to stir things up.

For clarification, what are your entries/exits? I know you said at the beginning, but I thought you may have put somewhere you were adjusting or something to that effect. Anyway, shoot and lets see what you got.
  • #309
  • Jan 10, 2012 7:56pm Jan 10, 2012 7:56pm
Well it's pretty straight forward.

I use the daily High Low and Close at midnight EST to calculate the Pivot, R1 and S1.

If close is below, I put a sell order in at the Pivot with the SL at R1, the TP at S1. Opposite if close is above. At first I thought I should close it at the close of the European session, but in the end that doesn't matter. I just set the order(s) and let it roll until midnight EST the next day. I use some discretion though on putting orders in. Mostly based on potential volume/volatility (no trade on holidays for example.

The biggest issue is the "No Trade" though, where price doesn't touch the Pivot all day.
  • #310
  • Jan 10, 2012 7:58pm Jan 10, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting BongaBonga
Well it's pretty straight forward.

I use the daily High Low and Close at midnight EST to calculate the Pivot, R1 and S1.

If close is below, I put a sell order in at the Pivot with the SL at R1, the TP at S1. Opposite if close is above. At first I thought I should close it at the close of the European session, but in the end that doesn't matter. I just set the order(s) and let it roll until midnight EST the next day. I use some discretion though on putting orders in. Mostly based on potential volume/volatility (no trade on holidays for example.

The...
Right. Maybe use some breakout candle strats for this? Too help pinpoint entries. Are you trading from the H4?
  • #311
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:53pm Jan 10, 2012 8:53pm
Quoting BongaBonga
Wow! This place exploded while I was away! Glad to see some life and discussion return.


I noticed that EURUSD wasn't ideal for using pivots for my primary S/R. While looking at just Daily data there looked to be an edge, but going down to the hourly data to see how the price flowed showed that too many times the price would hit the stop before going on to TP.

Price did generally respect the daily pivot values, that wasn't the issue. The issue was the bias aspect. I think that because of the size of the EURUSD and how news driven it is the...

i will work on a strategy regarding pivot points and perhaps we can discuss it here, give me some time to run proper statistical analysis and take into account macro economic factors, the idea of pivots and volatility.......although i am afraid some discretion and critical thinking still is required.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #312
  • Jan 11, 2012 8:14am Jan 11, 2012 8:14am
Hi Red,

I was recently looking at the currency indexes (*LFX pairs) offered via LiteForex and wondered whether you had run any of your statistical investigations on those.

One thing I found interesting on first glance was the ATR values these show. 7 of the 8 pairs exhibit very low differences in their ATR values (all between 93 and 109, with JPY @ 25).

This eventually led me to wonder whether these would also exhibit more regular (better probability) PP stats.

Just a thought...

Regards, Paul.
  • #313
  • Jan 11, 2012 9:03am Jan 11, 2012 9:03am
Can any one tell what pivots this man is using? What I see They are not traditional. I asked him but he is not telling....

Inserted Code
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-strategies-systems/139714-reliable-manual-dynamic-trading-system-signals-analytics-you-will-amazed-6.html
  • #314
  • Jan 11, 2012 6:54pm Jan 11, 2012 6:54pm
Not a clue. That poster is probably working up to selling his amazing system.
  • #315
  • Edited 5:28pm Jan 15, 2012 5:11pm | Edited 5:28pm
  •  duca
  • | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Investing is simple, but not easy | 409 Posts
interesting thread
I apologize for my English
for me from the previous low of the day goes to the pivot, and vice versa (with + probability);
3.4 the time she goes to pivot or support or resistance is broken;
I use the fibo
You can post your charts with entry and exit? basically looking for rebounds on pivot?
hello and thank you for the discussion
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  • #316
  • Jan 15, 2012 9:43pm Jan 15, 2012 9:43pm
"support or resistance is broken" and aso..

Pivots just only show you the S & R lines, and not a trend.
But therefore very accurate

They can always be broken by NO reason into the opposite expected by 'the rules'. After, you are of course smarter.

A look at M5 till H1, H4 is also advisable
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #317
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:35am Jan 17, 2012 6:35am
  •  duca
  • | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Investing is simple, but not easy | 409 Posts
i prefer Usa pivots
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  • #318
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:39am Jan 20, 2012 4:39am
The break of 1.2878 resistance in EUR/USD today suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 1.2625 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD.
very nice, good price..!
  • #319
  • Jul 11, 2012 2:29pm Jul 11, 2012 2:29pm
Hi,

I am inspired by the thread of greame http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149

Greame let's his positions grow until they have atleast 1000 pips of profit, when he sees the main trend reversing he starts taking partial profit. Anyone already tried to just put the position at break event end of day and let it run?


Grtzz,
Nik.
  • #320
  • Sep 9, 2012 7:05am Sep 9, 2012 7:05am
Quoting BongaBonga
Hello! Thank you for stopping by this thread. In here I would like to share with you a simple method that I have been studying and backtesting. I have had issues with overtrading and not setting realistic profit targets, as a result my trading has sucked. To combat the overtrading I started committing to a single trade a day, if it failed, that was it. Obviously, that reduced my drawdown, but didn't help my profit taking.

That's where the Daily Pivot Point (DPP) comes in. With the DPP I can determine a daily bias (long or short) as well as reasonable...
Dear BongaBonga

I'm a Junior Member in here and can't PM you yet. Could you please email your SPREADSHEET to me ? ( dianysma at gmail dot com )

Thank you

Sofia
Competing with myself...
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