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Trading Made Simple

  • #80,301
  • Jun 18, 2017 6:28am Jun 18, 2017 6:28am
Quoting fxrabbi
{quote} See the attached, it likely/may helps. Yomi. {image}
Thanks you
better than mine!
  • #80,302
  • Jun 18, 2017 11:51am Jun 18, 2017 11:51am
Jumping back into the market after a 3 year layoff. I've read the first 100+ pages, and am wondering if the basic rules have changed much, if at all. I live in a place where the London market opens at 2 p.m. and the NY session opens at 7 p.m.. I used to trade 15 minute charts using a breakout strategy, and became successful with it... however that success didn't amount to much when you had no discipline, lol. So after blowing sever demos, and becoming so disgusted with myself, I quit. It just wasn't worth the aggravation. I remembered this thread from a couple of years ago, so I'm ready to give it a shot again.

I'm thinking of trading the 4hr charts prior and during the London session, then maybe switching to 1hr for the NY session. I do remember the NY session did range a bit, so that is why I'm thinking 1 hr charts, or maybe even 15m. Not sure yet.

So anyway, just wondering if there has been anything new I need to be aware of. I'll still use the same old RSI, Stock, and 5 ema. This reminds me, what is the shift and why set it on 2 or 3... I did check to see what the 1 setting looked like, and to me, it just tightened things up some. Any thoughts on this?
  • #80,303
  • Jun 18, 2017 1:53pm Jun 18, 2017 1:53pm
[quote=emmanuel7788;9978936]{quote} You know by now that I have done my top down analysis and have by Big Picture Plan BPP. Those target levels are historical price swingThose levels are quite clear on MN Line Chart. {image}


AJ Big picture..
strong bullish candle in range, weekly strong bullish.. TP1 86.36 ( monthly resistance)
TP2 around 87.50.

Lookin for longs only this week .

stay tuned
Guido
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYWeekly 18.6..png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYMonthly 18.6.png Size: 34 KB
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #80,304
  • Jun 18, 2017 10:25pm Jun 18, 2017 10:25pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} market not decided which direction to go. but I wait and look for possible long EU and EJ.

Hi mmanuel,
Why do you look for long EU and EJ instead of short?
  • #80,305
  • Jun 19, 2017 3:23am Jun 19, 2017 3:23am
Hi dear Friends.
i'm new on this Thread.
Thank you dear Eelfranz
& thank you Emmanuel7788E

i'm using Mehdi's strategy now. {TDI + Stochastic (Sell : -20 , Buy: +80)}
it is not bad, i like it (MyFxBook ) . but, it works just for daily timeframes. it is not good for 4h & ...
Now, i want Learn your strategy too, because i like 4h timeframe

The Key of TDI is S/R Level.
Victory Is the Only Thing That Can Keep You Alive...
  • #80,306
  • Jun 19, 2017 4:07am Jun 19, 2017 4:07am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Do not trade simply with the TDI Golden Cross. What is more important is the PA and S/R. If you use the PAC entry approach with the TDI Moderate mode, the win rate for my trading pairs is between 42 % to 53%. This win rate is good enough considering the pip range from entry to exit using the Ha candle change colour. You don't need win rate of 70% to 80%. Look at the EU chart below. Do you see the TDI Golden Cross? It is visual. Look at the setup using the Ha close above and below the PAC with TDI Moderate mode. {image}
Sorry Emmanuel7788 but could you elaborate a little more on the win rate of 40%-50% of the goden cross + pac as I did a manual back test this weekend and on Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd on daily time frame , using TDI RT + Ema10 only , on 5 years and I found that the accuracy of the entries was more around 70% ! What is the difference comming from ? Am I doing something wrong ? but I do understand what a golden cross is (see your last very clear examples ) and I wait a cross of Ema10 that I prefer to PAC.
What is my mistake coming from or what do I misunderstand in your explanations ?
Thank you in advance for your answers.
  • #80,307
  • Jun 19, 2017 6:02am Jun 19, 2017 6:02am
Audjpy
Any idea
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #80,308
  • Jun 19, 2017 6:33am Jun 19, 2017 6:33am
Quoting mortezakh
Audjpy Any idea{image}
Salam Morteza

i see S/R Level: @84.4
so i thinks this is not good signal now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: as.png Size: 62 KB

The Key of TDI is S/R Level.

your signal is good, if you see this candle :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: as 2.png Size: 60 KB
Victory Is the Only Thing That Can Keep You Alive...
  • #80,309
  • Jun 19, 2017 6:46am Jun 19, 2017 6:46am
Quoting NikiPink
{quote} Salam Morteza i see S/R Level: @84.4 so i thinks this is not good signal now. {image} The Key of TDI is S/R Level. your signal is good, if you see this candle : {image}
Actually I thing I opened position 1 candle late
  • #80,310
  • Jun 19, 2017 7:09am Jun 19, 2017 7:09am
Quoting mortezakh
{quote} Actually I thing I opened position 1 candle late
Hi morteza

Pls look at the channel and the blue rectangles.
Of course W1 is up but you must pay attention to the res and sup .

Wait if price break above the channel and retrace to it or not !

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #80,311
  • Jun 19, 2017 7:23am Jun 19, 2017 7:23am
Quoting farhad10
{quote} Hi morteza Pls look at the channel and the blue rectangles. Of course W1 is up but you must pay attention to the res and sup . Wait if price break above the channel and retrace to it or not ! Regards {image}
The important thing I need to focus s/r
Thanks farhad and Nikki.
I try me/me method d1 with pac
  • #80,312
  • Jun 19, 2017 8:18am Jun 19, 2017 8:18am
Good morning everyone, I hope you had a good father's day weekend. I did, because I could spend time with my dad.

Okay, I need to clear up a couple of questions because I'm still new and learning as always.

1) When Eelfranz said he doesn't trade on Sundays, does that also include early Monday mornings?

--I saw several good setups at 2am (MST) this morning (Monday) on my 4 hour chart and I entered 1 hour late, but then they all went negative. I had set my stop loss at -150 pips so I know it wasn't too tight. I'd be happy to post screen shots of my trades for critique, but first I wanted to confirm if I was in violation of the basic trading rules.

2) This leads me to the second question, if we saw a trade develop at 10pm (MST) on Thursday evening, would we pass because the next 4 hour candle would occur by 2 am (MST) on Friday and we don't trade on Fridays?

My broker is Forex.com and I get candles opening on the 2, 6 and 10 time frames.

Thank you in advance for the clarification and I apologize if this type of question has already been asked and beaten to death before.

Today is also my birthday so good cheer to everyone and hope you had a nice father's day.

Kavitha
  • #80,313
  • Edited 5:36pm Jun 19, 2017 4:34pm | Edited 5:36pm
Quoting mortezakh
Audjpy Any idea{image}
Break R line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #80,314
  • Jun 19, 2017 7:39pm Jun 19, 2017 7:39pm
Quoting mortezakh
{quote} Break R line {image}

Nice entries planned.

That looks like a 'Blade' money management multiple entries with both limit and stop orders.

What about your exits - take profits strategy?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #80,315
  • Jun 19, 2017 7:42pm Jun 19, 2017 7:42pm
Quoting kenchk
{quote} Hi mmanuel, Why do you look for long EU and EJ instead of short?

I take a slightly longer view of these pairs. Weaker USD and JPY.
Trades can last several weeks when the opportunity arise.

Do your top down analysis from MN, W1 and D1 - and know where the higher TF support and resistance levels are.
Then wait patiently for the technical setups for buy. You need to see market volatility for good trades. Has not happen yet.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #80,316
  • Jun 19, 2017 7:56pm Jun 19, 2017 7:56pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} market not decided which direction to go. but I wait and look for possible long EU and EJ.
What TF are you talking about?
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -62.9%
  • #80,317
  • Jun 19, 2017 7:58pm Jun 19, 2017 7:58pm
Quoting bodal
{quote} Sorry Emmanuel7788 but could you elaborate a little more on the win rate of 40%-50% of the goden cross + pac as I did a manual back test this weekend and on Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd on daily time frame , using TDI RT + Ema10 only , on 5 years and I found that the accuracy of the entries was more around 70% ! What is the difference comming from ? Am I doing something wrong ? but I do understand what a golden cross is (see your last very clear examples ) and I wait a cross of Ema10 that I prefer to PAC. What is my mistake coming from or what do...

My backtests were based on last 10 years data - 2007 to 2017.
The entry was based on the use of PA above or below the PAC with the TDI Moderate mode as confirmation.
The exit is based on the HA candle change colour and only consider single entry / single exit.
These conditions are conservative and 100% mechanical rules using the HA, PAC and TDI.
The TDI golden cross is not an exclusive setup entry rule and the trade entry still rely on the 3 mechanical rules. Therefore the win rate for EURUSD and GBPUSD over 10 years of trading the D1 chart TF are:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Backtest winrate EU GU.png Size: 10 KB



Your test criteria are definitely different hence that explains the different results. I do not know what your exit rule is using the 10EMA.
In performing the backtests, you need also to count the number of buy / sell trades and the number of pips won / loss per trade.
Since this is D1 TF trades, you do not need to consider the entry day and time. However, if you backtest for H4 and H1 and matter of fact any timeframe below D1, you should include the day of the week and the time of the entries and exit. These test data are important when we want to design our systems for other timeframes because you want to know the best days of the week to trade 4H swing trades and the time of the day for example to trade H1 intraday trades.
Different currency pairs will produce different test data.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #80,318
  • Jun 19, 2017 8:10pm Jun 19, 2017 8:10pm
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} What TF are you talking about?

I trade only D1 chart for Position Trading while I am in summer vacation and do not have time to monitor my trades every 4 hours. I check my VPS once a a day with limited internet access.

EJ was bullish for few days but it is not "out of the woods" yet.
Look to the left of your D1 chart, you see last month's double tops highs.
Volatility is not there although it moves.
Look at W1 chart, it is sideways trading in a range. This type of condition is not good for Position trades. trade the lower TF like H1 and try win some pips doing intraday.

EU still undecided and with declining price momentum seen with the TDI and the small price bars/HA candle.
This need some event in the market to move it big.
Anything can happen between 1.1100 and 1.1300.


Overall, after BoJ policy statement last week, we can look at the JPY pairs for shorter term trades this week.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #80,319
  • Jun 19, 2017 8:24pm Jun 19, 2017 8:24pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} I trade only D1 chart for Position Trading while I am in summer vacation and do not have time to monitor my trades every 4 hours. I check my VPS once a a day with limited internet access. EJ was bullish for few days but it is not "out of the woods" yet. Look to the left of your D1 chart, you see last month's double tops highs. Volatility is not there although it moves. Look at W1 chart, it is sideways trading in a range. This type of condition is not good for Position trades. trade the lower TF like H1 and try win some pips doing intraday....
Thanks. EJ double top is my exit. It seems not ready to break 125.226.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -62.9%
  • #80,320
  • Jun 20, 2017 3:43am Jun 20, 2017 3:43am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} My backtests were based on last 10 years data - 2007 to 2017. The entry was based on the use of PA above or below the PAC with the TDI Moderate mode as confirmation. The exit is based on the HA candle change colour and only consider single entry / single exit. These conditions are conservative and 100% mechanical rules using the HA, PAC and TDI. The TDI golden cross is not an exclusive setup entry rule and the trade entry still rely on the 3 mechanical rules. Therefore the win rate for EURUSD and GBPUSD over 10 years of trading the D1 chart...
Thank you for your complete answer. I must think again my backtests in order to integrate more credible parameters . I may ask you some more precisions !
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