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Monthly Profit - Daily Trading using SMA

  • #8,561
  • Jun 16, 2017 4:41am Jun 16, 2017 4:41am
I was quite busy recently and did not have time to get involved but thanks to those warning about Kiwi which looks even more attractive after small retracement.
It is well positioned after a BB breakout.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #8,562
  • Jun 16, 2017 5:06am Jun 16, 2017 5:06am
Hello Forex Friends.
A question for the community.
How do we feel about holding trades open over the Weekend. I ask this because I recently lost about 5% of my account during the French Election( only Demo, but it still hurt). The problem was that there were Gaps in the market and my Stop losses did not seem to work, any thoughts on this please?
  • #8,563
  • Edited 7:17am Jun 16, 2017 6:05am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting Burtsfolly
Hello Forex Friends. A question for the community. How do we feel about holding trades open over the Weekend. I ask this because I recently lost about 5% of my account during the French Election( only Demo, but it still hurt). The problem was that there were Gaps in the market and my Stop losses did not seem to work, any thoughts on this please?
Hi Burtsfolly, you chose the right weekend for a gap I guess! Weekends are the only moment where you can observe gaps in forex, in theory.
Nevertheless just looking at the above chart you can see by yourself that sharp gaps occur quite rarely in fact.
Regarding french elections and the euro I guess all brokers, market-makers etc... insisted heavily on the implied risks by informing their customers and/or increasing sharply their margins requirements.
Just reducing my leverage and sticking with the core of my running trades before Friday's close has proven to be enough precautions from my experience.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #8,564
  • Jun 16, 2017 8:32am Jun 16, 2017 8:32am
In everyone experience, how many pips drawdown have you all faced when trading daily charts?
  • #8,565
  • Jun 16, 2017 8:54am Jun 16, 2017 8:54am
Guys here's an interesting play.

EURJPY - my bet is it's coming back down after the yannah's two candle retracement. A nice 150 pips ?

Best to see where it is first thing Monday morning. Of course the other play is a breakout northwards
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  • #8,566
  • Jun 16, 2017 11:04am Jun 16, 2017 11:04am
Quoting Filipo1
{quote} Hi Burtsfolly, you chose the right weekend for a gap I guess! Weekends are the only moment where you can observe gaps in forex, in theory. Nevertheless just looking at the above chart you can see by yourself that sharp gaps occur quite rarely in fact. Regarding french elections and the euro I guess all brokers, market-makers etc... insisted heavily on the implied risks by informing their customers and/or increasing sharply their margins requirements. Just reducing my leverage and sticking with the core of my running trades before Friday's...
Thanks for your response Fillipo. Do you mind if i ask how much leverage you use?
  • #8,567
  • Jun 16, 2017 12:45pm Jun 16, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting eguitarist
In everyone experience, how many pips drawdown have you all faced when trading daily charts?

I don't trade the daily chart. But I enjoy the thread because it's very important to watch the daily charts for daily trend direction along with my forex power currency strength indi of course. On my system today it was probably one of the best trading days for a long time. 100 pips (nett) and I'm a happy bunny!

Anyone using csdash? I've got it but hardly ever look at it (got it set up on a blank chart).
  • #8,568
  • Jun 16, 2017 1:59pm Jun 16, 2017 1:59pm
Today wasn't a good trading day
  • #8,569
  • Jun 16, 2017 5:33pm Jun 16, 2017 5:33pm
What do you guys think about NZD/USD? It should have went down but the last daily candle is bullish. Should i hold on it or cut losses?
  • #8,570
  • Jun 16, 2017 11:45pm Jun 16, 2017 11:45pm
Quoting Burtsfolly
{quote} Thanks for your response Fillipo. Do you mind if i ask how much leverage you use?
Normally about 5-10x and occasionally up to 50x depending on stop-loss distance.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #8,571
  • Edited 6:58am Jun 17, 2017 12:05am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting ghostman10
What do you guys think about NZD/USD? It should have went down but the last daily candle is bullish. Should i hold on it or cut losses?
First of all one should have a trading plan and stick to its rules.

This thread's strategy stop-loss rule is: 15pips above/below the signal candlestick having crossed SMA5.
Some also do not use stop-loss orders but prefer to open hedging inverse position with a stop limit at the same levels where others would put a stop-loss order.
It avoids giving your money away to the broker but requires a closer follow up and a larger equity in your account.

Whatever your rules are you should stick to them and keep a record of the circumstances of failed trades (motives for entering, s/l, exit etc...)
This is the only way to know if something is clearly wrong in your system and needs adjustment considering in the first place that no strategy will give you 100% success of course.
Retracements are frequent in forex, and markets in general are like living beings breathing in and breathing out.
This is very well explained and exploited by a friendly coach named Nikos Mermigas and his Spartan trading system.

You may also find interesting studies on the pair on the following page:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/
Personally I like this one particularly: simple and crystal clear:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZ...KEN-TRENDLINE/

This thread's signals are to be found on the daily charts but looking closer can also allow a better reading of price action;
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I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #8,572
  • Jun 17, 2017 1:21am Jun 17, 2017 1:21am
Hi

Here's the updates.

Cheers
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx Analysis.docx   232 KB | 706 downloads
  • #8,573
  • Jun 17, 2017 4:40am Jun 17, 2017 4:40am
Quoting yanah12
Hi Here's the updates. Cheers {file}
Hello
I like your way of taking charts and making comments before you take a position.
All the best.
Oddbj.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #8,574
  • Edited 1:13pm Jun 17, 2017 5:12am | Edited 1:13pm
Hi everyone

Sorry about this, I have read the rules more thoroughly - should have done so before!

I think what people are doing wrong is ignoring a key rule here. That is the the 5 sma line must be sloping down to take a sell trade and up to take a buy trade. Also one needs two candle confirmation. I have circled areas (in the past) on the attached NZDUSD chart where applying this rule would have resulted in winning trades. Makes sense really I suppose! So at the moment, there is no trade available on the pair if one is trading this particular system.

I really can't agree with his view that one can't trade the 4 hour chart. Many people are making very good money trading the 4 hour chart so that's a load of nonsense!
  • #8,575
  • Jun 17, 2017 5:54am Jun 17, 2017 5:54am
Quoting jmtini
Hi everyone Sorry about this, I have read the rules more thoroughly - should have done so before! I think what people are doing wrong is ignoring a key rule here. That is the the 5 sma line must be sloping down to take a sell trade and up to take a buy trade. I have circled areas (in the past) on the attached NZDUSD chart where applying this rule would have resulted in winning trades. Makes sense really I suppose! So really at the moment, there is no trade available on the pair if one is trading this particular system. Also one needs two candle...

Hi Jmtini, sure and you could make a lot of money scalping m1-m3 in big sizes as well. The thing is that Bk8 wanted to share a simple "set-and-forget" system for those who struggle making money on forex. Considering only daily charts signals allow to enter, set stop-loss and come back only the next day to eventually trail the stop-loss level or close the position.
I fully agree with you that H4 and even H1 (for which he opened a parallel thread) work nicely BUT they require more monitoring during the day and the returns to expect for each trade would obviously be minor in most of the cases.
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #8,576
  • Jun 17, 2017 6:39am Jun 17, 2017 6:39am
EURGBP
Bearish signal given by last Thursday candlestick, SMA5 now pointing downward.

Nice reversal confirmation after bearish engulfing pattern on the upper Bollinger band breakup.
Friday's retracement from Bollinger middle band was capped by 50% Fibonacci on current range in place since October 2016.
For those considering oscillators both MACD and Stochastic have crossed below.


https://www.tradingview.com/x/IWRmaS5x/
I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #8,577
  • Jun 17, 2017 9:10am Jun 17, 2017 9:10am
Quoting Filipo1
EURGBP Bearish signal given by last Thursday candlestick, SMA5 now pointing downward. Nice reversal confirmation after bearish engulfing pattern on the upper Bollinger band breakup. Friday's retracement from Bollinger middle band was capped by 50% Fibonacci on current range in place since October 2016. For those considering oscillators both MACD and Stochastic have crossed below. https://www.tradingview.com/x/IWRmaS5x/
I would be careful with EURGBP, it's even now in uptrend for me. I'll wait the crash of trendline.
Good Luck
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  • #8,578
  • Jun 17, 2017 11:36pm Jun 17, 2017 11:36pm
Quoting yanah12
Today's trades. Green pips to all. {image}
Hi Yanah, thanks for sharing your strategy. I see from your picture that some trades have stop loss, some do not. Did I miss anything? Thanks
  • #8,579
  • Jun 18, 2017 12:15am Jun 18, 2017 12:15am
Quoting Doppiomalto
{quote} I would be careful with EURGBP, it's even now in uptrend for me. I'll wait the crash of trendline. Good Luck {image}
Thanks for the warning Doppiomalto. Indeed on your chart it looks as a valid trend line (min. 3 points of contact) but on mine it is more distant from current price action.
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I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
  • #8,580
  • Jun 18, 2017 12:26am Jun 18, 2017 12:26am
EURJPY beware of the downtrend channel.
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I used to be indecisive but now I'm not so sure...
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