EURUSD

Lol, I have an official license to put EA after my name.
EA in the USA means Enrolled Agent.
It means that I passed an IRS exam that gives me the right to represent every US citizen or Green Card Holder before the IRS,
everywhere in the world.

(But of course I know the grey areas too)

Probably this is where the bulls gave up for now (1.1203)

ok , yes bull very intact even at a top , but it is not that short cut all time , this London That London open , close comes & go no problem , and may market may not respect any hard & strict rule also , so be flexible , market will decide by itself. take care , fontu

Finally a break below 1200, now I will wait if it can close there...because if it closes back above 1200, didn't mean anything still.

I am always flexible, ready for both outcomes(luckily there is only 2 directions in forex).

What shall I say?

"Told you?"

Yep, got rid of my shorts from 1.1210 as we broke through 1.12. Buying some longs as we speak ~ 1.119. I don't expect it to stay below 1.12 like this for very long. Maybe US session but I don't think there's enough volume to break this support with just London.

still hold short position from 1.1281, expecting deeper maybe 1.10xxx

The bears are laughing at you.

The problem is this,
We don't know what direction the EU is gonna take.

There is resistance to the north, but support to the south.

That gives us a little bit of playing room, so take your pic, go short or long, you'll win as long as you have patience.

Last pop to up came from 1.117 so I would think it will at least go to around there. Then its down to around 1.110. As always though nothing surprises me with this pair. I'm certainly no expert.

But I am short

The bears are laughing at me too. They told me that I managed to fool the bulls again

Cheers

Shit...I got bad news for you...

Who knows rejection?
That means more short!

Time for more short EU?

As I stated earlier, the longer term sentiment is going to change. I am 90% a technical trader but this analysis is strictly fundamental. For me this was the perfect opportunity getting short from 112.28 area

Fed rate hike cycle based on employment and inflation mandates. Employment has been fine for a while (although if you have a brain and live in the US you know its all smoke and mirrors). The only remaining concern was the inflation issue. The second Yellen shrugged off the bad CPI number as a one time non issue, was the second that the longer term sentiment pointed directly towards a stronger US dollar verse the Euro.

Remember the Euro surged on the bad inflation data. And you can bet your bottom dollar many were expecting Yellen to be very dovish for the big 113+ to the moon scenario. Now, how many got caught long. This has the potential to gain momentum as SLs get taken out on the way down.

Just as a hypothetical. Imagine the US doing 3 rate hikes in the next 18 months. Certainly, not out of the question. Imagine the EU not tightening much or at all. That's a possibility of a future carry of 2% give or take. May not mean much today but the future perception might keep pressure on the Euro now. Not saying that will happen but Yellen's rhetoric today may very well have set the tone for a deeper correction. I am targeting 108.50 ish at a minimum over the next 6 weeks or so.

Need a 4H close below 111.90 at some point to keep this ball rolling down hill

Might seem unrealistic to some but that's my Nostradamus rant for the evening

Cheers all

Euro is weak now