Heads Up: CHF Rate Hike (Sep 14)

CHF interest rate hike PDF

Reuters confirm the consensus:

'Analysts view a rate increase as a certainty and will focus on the SNB's statement, looking for hints that the central bank might speed up its tightening campaign soon.'

That means a straightforward 25bps hike is price in. The risk is of either 50bps hike (remote chance, but still a chance, because the SNB meet very infrequently vs the other CBs, and the policy rate is still very low), or a statement that veers from expectation (stronger possibility).

I think we'll still see a bullish franc if there is a 25bp rate hike.

Hah, they are not the only ones meddling with policy rates today. Iceland this morning raised its policy rate another 50bps to a record 14% (yes, 14%). The crown has staged a strong rally but expect more action when they release their statement/press talk (11 GMT). Current inflation is over 7% and the cbk forecasts 11% by the year end.

Now that's an economy in trouble!

damn, looks like i need to open a savings account in iceland!!!

You want a frozen account?

15 minutes before interest rate announcement. usd/chf had been strengthen from 1.2500 to 1.2440. Hmm, 60 points already from its strong support. Will it gonna stop at 1.2400 level or continue to strengthen further??

Froze account...too funny!

The USD.CHF move could have just come from the USD side. Right now, it looks like EUR/CHF higher is the trade.

Little whipsaw, Manged to gain +3 pips though. Well on to the US Retail Sales.

It also looks like EUR/USD is turning lower - it is surprising but last time I looked the correlation of daily returns between EUR/CHF and EUR/USD was negative. So, if EUR/USD does indeed head lower, this could make for a higher EUR/CHF. It sound contradictory, but that's what the data told me last time I looked.

Lost 6

Lost 20. 10 each side Alright. not that bad. Head for the US retail sale.

Lost -10

i lost 20 pips too during news announcement :-( but managed to get 30 pip profit during london session. Net profit 10 pips.

+10 for me. But still in with 1 lot....we will see

I would say it was just good trade management.

filled short, tightened my stops quickly for minimum loss, got filled long and took profits to have a ++ trade.

As I have said in other posts....trade management is EVERYTHING.

DC

The usual evil da wickeda mon.....everyone expected the hike, so everyone was already short swissy, the selling power was probably exhausted, the buyers held back, on the announcement the last remaining seller strength tried to get past the 1.2435 former 23.6% fib, failed and the buyers stepped in and carried it back up....real shame though, I was trying to stay in a short from the pin break of yesterday's daily but got stopped at break even on the spike back up before taking any profit :/

Would be ironic to have it fail near the 1.2490-1.2500 barrier again after getting stopped...or if it stops short of 1.2540 and then drops off again...we'll see...

surely a lot rides on the US data in 5 minutes time.

+4 pips on bull... Weak movement so I moved stop loss to +4 pips and on one of the little fades got closed... I expected a stronger movement... And BTW, why if the CHF got it forecast it made USD raise? Wasn't it supposed to be the opposite?

Remember last usd hike GBP push 200 pips to upside on a thurday, then 200 more the next dau on usd news release. raised rates but said further tightning not probable

look like most lost money trading USD/chf