News trading discussion - continuation

Sloppy, still some

Thursday
14:45
06/08/17
EU Minimum interest rate of securities
(EU Minimum Bid Rate), EU, EURUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability of bidding.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

It so happened that today, on Thursday, will be two of the most important events this week: the ECB meeting, as well as the parliamentary elections in Britain.
It is not expected that the ECB will change any parameters of the "interest" policy, but it is expected that the inflation expectations can be revised, and the current incentive program timelines are updated: the markets are waiting for tapering - the gradual curtailment of incentives.
Knowing Mario Draghi, who will give a press conference 45 minutes after the announcement of the results of the meeting, everything may actually turn out to be in fact opposite to the sentiment of the markets.
A high degree of probability that according to the ECB rate invariance algorithm we will get "no bids", but on the nervousness of the markets we can observe a significant fluctuation of the EUR prices.

Thursday
17:30
06/08/17
US Natural gas reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), USA, #NG
The average response when triggers trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Can't beat you, vvFish

Fish

You are obviously looking at price action much earlier than the last 1-2 bars .

Maybe the first signal was the price run-up and then the big drop in price at the end of yesterday. So today you were looking for a signal to short. The first trade was prior to the FF open (confirmed by Chandelier stop, although not really relevant). I suspect you were looking to see if price continued down after the yesterdays NY session drop. You took profit as price began to reverse.

The second trade was on the drop below support after the NY Open - possibly confirmed by the Chandelier stop (but again not that relevant).

The third trade (your "Trump Double-down" trade) was just prior to the news event - looks like the last minute. Looks like you had a set TP of 20 pips for both trades.

Am I close Fish? What would you score me out of 10?

1. I never look at stocks.
2. The chart on which you see the transaction has everything to trade.
3. I do not apply other advisers except the minesweeper, he does not expose stops or profits.

good luck to you.

Friday
09:00
06/09/17
NO Core of the consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
The average reaction when triggers trigger 3.00 points in the first minute after the release.
Probability of bidding.

Friday
11:30
06/09/17
GB Industrial production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

Friday
15:30
06/09/17
CA Number of employed GOOD
(CA Employment Change), Canada, USDCAD
The average reaction when triggers trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability of bidding.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

This indicator can be interesting. Rarely comes across independently, and not under the cover of the American colleague Non-Farm Payrolls, its analogue, not so popular, but with similar potential and jambs.
Special attention this time I would like to draw your attention to the movement of oil, which puts pressure on CAD especially in the USDCAD pair - this may be an additional risk factor for trade.

Nice weekend to all.

Great weekend to everyone.

Inserted Video

vvFish why you didn't open transaction 1 sec before CAD data?

Thoughts on "smart traders"

The political factor continues to bring volatility to the market. Volatility is also increasing the activity of traders. I would like to think that the profit also grows, at least in our case it happened exactly: the election results (almost traditionally) have pounded the pound for two more figures. In addition: pleased sales at the Canadian NFP, very pleasantly surprised the drop in oil, and Mario Draghi dotted his "i".

EUR
The ECB is ready to increase QE in terms or volume ...
If the outlook becomes less favorable or the financial conditions become tougher.
The ECB Mario Draghi expectedly left the interest rate at the same level. Promising to keep the program of asset redemption until December 2017, in the final communique, the banker got rid of the proposal for a possible further rate cut.
As a result, the regulator refused to continue to lower interest rates, while it is ready to keep them at a record low level for a long time.

GBP
Theresa May did not receive the proper parliamentary majority
UK voters once again surprised speculators and investors, pounding the pound with unexpected election results.
Prime Minister Teresa Mei's party does not receive a parliamentary majority, loses influence and the possibility of developing independent political decisions, from the formation of the government, to negotiations on Brexit.
It was the most interesting trade of this week, it looked like this.

Attached Image

The pound again loses the two figures. Perhaps, when the political dust settles (it is already beginning), all attention will shift to the fresh monetary thoughts of the Bank of England.
USD
Preserves silence before the FOMC meeting
The brightest colors for the picture with quotations USD last week were drawn by political events. On Thursday, the Committee for Intelligence of the US Senate made a former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, James Komi, sent by President Donald Trump, exactly one month ago, retired. The reason for the dismissal of the Komi, as Donald himself openly admitted, was the unwillingness of the country's chief fberovtsa to promptly complete the investigation into Russia's intervention in last year's election campaign.
According to Komi, Trump sent him to resign to undermine the investigation.
- Do you have doubts that Russia tried to interfere in the elections of 2016?
- None.
It's good that the FOMC meeting is already on Wednesday, and the accents and information background will be diluted somewhat, and the markets are already talking about the chances of an additional rate hike in December: 52% of the probability that we will see a level of 1.25-1.5%.
CAD
I experienced difficulties with oil, but I played a trump card in the form of Non-Farm Payrolls
The publication of data on oil stocks from the US Department of Energy on Wednesday caused a sharp drop in oil futures quotes - traders expected that the trend towards their decrease, started in February of this year, will continue, which affected not only the trading instrument of oil, but also in pairs With CAD, which continues to react swiftly to incidents with oil quotes. In addition, another player - Nigeria - returned to the oil market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Speech on Thursday the head of the Central Bank of Canada did not affect the exchange rate of the national currency. The problems voiced in the speech - the growth of household debt and house prices, did not contain prescriptions for their solution.
According to the latest macroeconomic data, economic growth accelerated in the spring, above expectations, the driver was the increase in domestic demand.
The week is ended with positive labor market data from Canada, which showed an increase in the employment forecast above. The latter factor seriously "played to strengthen" the Canadian dollar in the pair USD / CAD.
CA Employment Change 54.5K vs 15K
CA Unemployment Rate 6.6% vs 6.6%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

AUD & NZD
Reserve Bank of Australia remains in neutrality
At the meeting on Tuesday, the Bank of Australia expectedly left the rate at the same level, the pair kept the trend on insisting on the expected GDP growth.
Released figures in annual terms, were higher than analysts' expectations and allowed the Australian economy to set a record of constant GDP growth (without recessions - falling two quarters in a row), within 26 years. On this indicator, it came out on top in the world among developing countries.
Australian GDP Growth Rate (Q1) Q / Q 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev 1.1%)
Australian GDP Growth Rate (Q1) Y / Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev 2.4%)
RBA: Wage growth remains slow, labor market indicators mixed
RBA: China's high level of debt medium-term risk


99% on raising the Fed's rate this Wednesday
The publication of the results of the FOMC meeting and the subsequent press conference of Janet Yellen, the most important fundamental event of the week, after which medium-term and long-term trends in financial markets can be formed.

Analysts estimate the probability of an increase in the Fed rate of 99% (not a joke!), Against 91% last week. The meeting will last two days with the announcement of the decision on Wednesday and the conference half an hour after the release. Any statements by FRS bankers before announcement of decisions are forbidden, as well as accounting for current data, despite the fact that inflation figures will go out day in day with a rate.

One of the conditions for raising rates, previously voiced by Yellen - the full employment of the labor market, which showed last week's reports.

The fall in new jobs to reduce unemployment has not affected, according to the head of the FBI Philadelphia - "Another good report." Speech on Friday, occurred after the publication of "ambiguous" figures for the two reports. On the same day, Kaplan, the unspoken spokesman for the Fed, hinted that the figures for these two reports refer to "underutilized capacities."

Many perceived this as a signal to achieve full employment, based on the previous speeches of the head of the FBI Dallas, where he openly stated about such a benchmark for raising the rate. Both bankers are members of the FOMC Commission with the right to a decisive vote.

Tuesday
10:30
06/13/17
SE Consumer Price Index
(SE CPI), Sweden, EURSEK
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
Probability of bidding.

Tuesday
11:30
06/13/17
GB Consumer Price Index GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.