DislikedMingary says jump and you're all jumping! Pips_Cruiser is very right (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9914889#post9914889). The Monty Hall problem is about the decision taken by the host of the game (market) based on the first decision of the candidate (trader) which in turn gives additional information to open the next door (next trade). This would require that Mingary's first trade forces the market to react. In clear term he would have to trade big enough to shake the market and force a reaction.Ignored
What you are saying, i gather, is that you do not believe we are actually opening a wrong door when we apply it to the markets. You could be spot on, but I cannot agree with your hypothesis 100% without a scientific trial. Needs to be tested. Nobody thought Monty Hall would work either until they ran it a thousand times over a number of trials and found it worked. I do understand your logic though and you could very well be right. Good post. You have a sharp mind sir. is it so difficult to test though? why should we not try it out?
so the real issue is....is it possible to "open a wrong door' so to speak applying monty hall logic to the markets? If yes, how? if no...then...well was fun discusisng the idea with you fellas...lets write a paper and get a phd lol