News trading discussion - continuation

Fish, what are you trying to say - you knew the result of NFP in the Asian session

Or did you see something else going on - S/R trade off that 111.50 level or a strength meter cross perhaps?

Everyone sees the schedule in different ways.
I saw the signal from the beginning of the Asian session 111.360

Vvfish, Can you share how to use indicator?

I am guessing the signal was the rapid price rise of 30 pips in the USDJPY at the Asian open for no good reason (JPN/Tokio CPI numbers were mixed). The pivot resistance and daily trend-line resistance was at around 111.66 (some confluence there). Not sure how you used the Chandelier, other than that small head fake 6 hours or so later on the 5 or 1 min TF. Still that only left a 15-20 pip gain at NFP news time. Were you thinking that if it went against you that you could get out in the first couple of minutes with BE or a small loss? Regardless, NICE TRADE!

Thoughts on "smart traders"

The first two days of summer turned out to be really hot: on Thursday the dollar rose almost to the figure, and on Friday collapsed by 100 points after the publication of the report on the US labor market. Why did this happen, because earlier the American stubbornly ignored the discrepancy between the forecast and the fact of Non-Farm Payrolls?
USD
Non-Farm Payrolls diverged from preliminary data from ADP
The dollar, gaining positive for the week, suffered a total fiasco on Friday, after the publication of data "non-pharma":
Miserable 138K increase compared to the forecast of 182K USDJPY pulled more than a figure!

Attached Image

The main reason for this movement was "insidious disappointment" for the already tuned to the positive market: on the eve of the unofficial forecast from ADP hinted at an impressive increase in "nook", whether a joke at 253K (and the fact of NFP was only 138K). In addition, it also inspires distrust and published dynamics of wage growth: the Earnings gain is rather mediocre, at the forecast level (0.2%), while the previous Average Hourly Earnings release was revised down to 0.2% against 0.3%.
Also an additional optimizer geyner before NFP was the popular report May 2017 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, the employment component of which showed an increase of +1.5 points.

As a result, NFP not only failed to support the positive mood, but also significantly reduced them. And that's all on the eve of the FOMC meeting ... a meeting at which the Fed should raise its interest rate!

Now all the attention for the USD on June 14, at the FOMC meeting of the Fed: the markets laid about 90% of the chance for another Fedreza rate increase in two weeks.

The head, Janet Yellen, changed the method of decision-making on the rate, the Committee will not take into account subsequent events and news - before the session two weeks of silence will be announced. At the same time, weak labor market data can cool the desire for the current anticipated increase in the rate. It is worthwhile to follow closely the quotations of Monday, which may reflect a decline in those same 90% chance of Friday.

Meanwhile, the representatives of the Federal Reserve said:
FOMC member Jerome Powell, speaking on Thursday, voiced the decision of the Fed on two future rate hikes in the second half of the year with a "balanced" state of affairs in the economy.
Williams (who does not vote in the FOMC, a member of the Fed) sees three rate increases this year (that is, plus two), and a gradual increase in it will prevent overheating of the economy.
Kaplan supports two additional rate increases this year.

EUR
Speculations around tightening monetary policy of the ECB are exacerbated, and not for nothing ...

In the medium term, the euro's growth may continue on the ECB's actions aimed at curtailing monetary incentives, which many developed countries of the Eurozone (and especially from the Bundesbank) are urging Mario Draghi to call.
The GDP of the European Union is growing 16 quarters in a row, any hint of changes in the ECB policy, "push" the Fed's incentives "to the second plan", noting them only short-term jumps in the rate.
Mario Draghi himself notes that economic prospects are increasing and risks are being reduced, but at the same time, he remains convinced of the need to support monetary policy, but does not deny the possibility of further correction. Draghi also noted that the ECB can formulate conclusions on the distribution of risks and probable growth and inflation prospects in June (and the ECB meeting already on its nose, will be held on Thursday, June 8).

AUD & NZD
More likely, the RBA will continue to maintain neutrality

Quite good statistics continue to come from Oceania: Australia's retail sales increased significantly (1% in April compared to a decline of -0.2% in March). Also, surveys were published, according to which the interest rate from the Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to change.
Neighboring New Zealand in the Financial Stability Report notes a reduction in risks, which, together with the rest of the statistics, may indicate continuation of the neutral monetary views of the Central Banks of Oceania.

GBP
Sterling will remain under political pressure until June 8

It is on this day that extraordinary parliamentary elections will be held, and this is the upcoming Thursday (June 8). In the meantime, the markets are savoring the results of polls, according to which the risks to the stability of the GBP escalated closer to the elections: if firstly Teresa May was in the lead as a winner in the polls, there was only a slight advantage to the weekend.
Conservative party Theresa May can not boast a large margin (only 3%) of the competition. In the event of a defeat, the pound, which started its recovery this year, is waiting for new lows. Against this background, any economic news on the British currency, will have a short-term value.
It is worth remaining extremely attentive and cautious until the announcement of the results.

Important events of the upcoming week (June 5-11)

The main event next week will be early elections in the UK, as well as a meeting of the European Central Bank.

On Monday, pay attention to the publications UK Services PMI and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

The Bank of Australia, at a meeting on Tuesday, will decide on the interest rate, which, according to analysts' expectations, will remain unchanged at 1.5%. Recall that the inflation data is 2.1% and grow three quarters in a row, the regulator continues to hold rates at low levels since the end of last year, but the Regulator relies on the expectation of a fall in GDP, the data on it will be published the next day after the meeting
.
Indeed, much more interesting may be the quarterly data of Australia's GDP published on Wednesday - this indicator is now well met by traders.

The moment of truth, how much the Eurozone bankers influenced Mario Draghi, will be the ECB's meeting on Thursday. It is worthwhile to take care of yourself on this day and because of the parliamentary elections in Great Britain - they will finally take place, and after that, political tension will grow into true attention to economic indicators.

The new week also prepared a surprise in the form of a Canadian labor market report (local Non-farm), which this month will be released separately from the US statistics (which will allow holding trades on it, too). The data will be published on Friday.

Monday
11:30
05.06.17
GB The index of activity in the service sector is GOOD
(GB Services PMI), England, GBPUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Monday
17:00
05.06.17
US Service Sector Activity Index from ISM
(US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI), US, USDJPY
The average response when triggers trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

UK Services PMI. There goes that 1 min pin bar again!. There was another one at the 5 min candle prior to the news as well (my first signal).

Pakeha

I don't see this pin bar in my broker. What broker you're trading?

IC Markets. It doesn't have to be a pin exactly, but a bar where sellers in this case gain control esp in the last 15-30 sec of the 1 min bar.

Tuesday
07:30
06/06/17
AU Interest rate
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, AUDUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability of bidding.

Unfortunately it's not true. There are a lots of examples when after realese price goes opposite way.

Thanks vvFish for the info. Very useful, always.

pakeha and others,

It may be helpful for you to check up this site where sec charts of various length for practically all the spike news are accessible historically free of charge.

http://www.fasteconomicnews.com/forexcalendarchart.aspx

Hey, I was never trying to say that it was perfect

I am just trying to determine if price action prior to the release is reflective of some people getting the news a few minutes earlier than others. If the hypothesis is correct then there is a method to trade the news pre-announcement. If the hypothesis is incorrect then nothing lost (other than the time to test the hypothesis). That's what this thread and the previous one were partially about.

To your point the US ADP Non-farm Employment last week was a good example. Sellers were in control in the last minute going into the news release; there was a major beat of expectations and price reversed rapidly. One could conclude that there was no early release of the news prior to this specific event, or traders got it very wrong (in this case that is unlikely given the beat in numbers).

However, for Aussie retail sales; UK Manufacturing PMI; and NFP (surprisingly given the lock-down) there were signals in the price action in the 1-2 min prior to the release (those were the ones I traded live last week). Is that enough to say the hypothesis is correct - obviously not - too small of a sample. Is it enough to keep looking at it - I think so.

Hope that helps

If you, or anyone else has ideas on how to profitably trade the news, feel free to contribute.

Thanks Rising Sun - will give it a read.

Cheers

Wednesday
04:30
06/07/17
AU GDP Growth HOT!
(AU GDP), Australia, AUDUSD
The average reaction when triggers trigger 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability of bidding.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

A good signal, but the Australian delay spoils everything. Here it is clearly pronounced, and the entrance will be late.

Wednesday
17:30
06/07/17
US Oil and oil products reserves
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
The average reaction when triggers trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Thank you a lot @vvFish for the great post on “thoughts on smart traders” reallzy good read i have to mention. Happy trading.

Thank you.