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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #4,361
  • May 27, 2017 10:34pm May 27, 2017 10:34pm
Top 5 Economic Calendar Events May 28 – June 4

1. US employment report
2. US ISM manufacturing data
3. UK PMI Manufacturing data
4. Fed Governor Brainard speech
5. Eurozone flash CPI data
Tuesday
10:30
30.05.17
SE GDP growth
(SE GDP), Sweden, EURSEK
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,362
  • May 30, 2017 6:28am May 30, 2017 6:28am
Wednesday
15:30
05/31/17
CA GDP growth
(CA GDP), Canada, USDCAD
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,363
  • May 31, 2017 7:33am May 31, 2017 7:33am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_12.png Size: 31 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,364
  • May 31, 2017 7:41am May 31, 2017 7:41am
Thursday
04:30
06/01/17
AU Retail Sales
(AU Retail Sales), Australia, AUDUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Thursday
11:30
06/01/17
GB Industry Activity Index GOOD
(GB Manufacturing PMI), England, GBPUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Thursday
15:15
06/01/17
US ADP Number of employed
(US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change), US, USDJPY
The average response when triggers trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

Thursday
5pm
06/01/17
US ISM Business Optimism Index
(US ISM Manufacturing PMI), United States, USDJPY
The average response when triggers trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

Thursday
17:00
06/01/17
US Natural gas reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), USA, #NG
The average response when triggers trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Thursday
18:00
06/01/17
US Oil and oil products reserves
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
The average reaction when triggers trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,365
  • May 31, 2017 8:51pm May 31, 2017 8:51pm
Bingo!

Always nice to get it right. As you say Fish - just read the price action. Could have waited another 10 minutes longer and doubled the pips. Now, lets see if I can do this consistently
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 2017-05-31_18h44_22.png Size: 44 KB
  • #4,366
  • Jun 1, 2017 1:53am Jun 1, 2017 1:53am
pakeha why buy?
  • #4,367
  • Jun 1, 2017 3:49am Jun 1, 2017 3:49am
UK Manufacturing PMI

Determined the direction correctly, but the deviation from expectation was not significant enough to move price any higher (it had been moving higher for the previous 30 min) A breakeven scenario. Is that how you saw it Fish?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 2017-06-01_01h42_36.png Size: 50 KB
  • #4,368
  • Jun 1, 2017 3:54am Jun 1, 2017 3:54am
Quoting John.Doe
pakeha why buy?
Price action in the last minute prior to the release. When trading price action I always ask myself the question "who is getting control - buyers or sellers"? I need a bunch more attempts at this technique before I can claim any success.
  • #4,369
  • Jun 1, 2017 10:42am Jun 1, 2017 10:42am
Quoting pakeha
{quote} Price action in the last minute prior to the release. When trading price action I always ask myself the question "who is getting control - buyers or sellers"? I need a bunch more attempts at this technique before I can claim any success.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_13.png Size: 37 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,370
  • Jun 1, 2017 10:44am Jun 1, 2017 10:44am
Friday
11:30
06/02/17
GB PMI index in construction
(GB Construction PMI), England, GBPUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
30% probability of bidding.

Friday
15:30
06/02/17
US The number of employed outside of agriculture HOT!
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), USA, USDJPY
The average response when triggers trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability of bidding.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,371
  • Jun 1, 2017 10:50am Jun 1, 2017 10:50am
Fish

Yeah, I noticed that. About 20 min after the news they took it higher and then smashed it back down - stop hunting maybe?
  • #4,372
  • Jun 1, 2017 11:02am Jun 1, 2017 11:02am
Quoting pakeha
Fish Yeah, I noticed that. About 20 min after the news they took it higher and then smashed it back down - stop hunting maybe?
Yes, they lowered the price before the opening of New York
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_14.png Size: 72 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,373
  • Jun 1, 2017 12:43pm Jun 1, 2017 12:43pm
I wasn't around to trade the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change today. However, when I look at the price action on the 1 minute bar prior to the news it looks like it would have been a sell signal (bar opened on the high and closed on the low - sellers in control). Then of course the news beat expectations at 253K and price jumped 37 pips. I would have had my pocket picked had I traded. Did you trade this Fish?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY 2017-06-01_10h30_01.png Size: 39 KB
  • #4,374
  • Jun 1, 2017 12:55pm Jun 1, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting pakeha
I wasn't around to trade the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change today. However, when I look at the price action on the 1 minute bar prior to the news it looks like it would have been a sell signal (bar opened on the high and closed on the low - sellers in control). Then of course the news beat expectations at 253K and price jumped 37 pips. I would have had my pocket picked had I traded. Did you trade this Fish? {image}
No, I was busy today with other things.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,375
  • Jun 2, 2017 3:34am Jun 2, 2017 3:34am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_19.png Size: 45 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,376
  • Jun 2, 2017 7:45am Jun 2, 2017 7:45am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-06-02_2142.png Size: 30 KB


Nice weekend
  • #4,377
  • Jun 2, 2017 10:17am Jun 2, 2017 10:17am
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #4,378
  • Jun 2, 2017 10:44am Jun 2, 2017 10:44am
Thought I would post something slightly different this time - the anatomy of the NFP price action today - in particular the minute prior to the news release. In looking at a number of past red news events I have seen this particular price action play out enough for it to seemingly be a pattern. It doesn't always have to be a "pin bar" per-se, but the bar has to indicate that sellers (or buyers) are in control, typically in the last 15 seconds prior to the red news release.

Comments and observations welcome
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NFP UJ 2017-06-02_08h08_39.png Size: 57 KB
  • #4,379
  • Jun 2, 2017 11:28am Jun 2, 2017 11:28am
Quoting pakeha
UK Manufacturing PMI Determined the direction correctly, but the deviation from expectation was not significant enough to move price any higher (it had been moving higher for the previous 30 min) A breakeven scenario. Is that how you saw it Fish? {image}
Just building on the previous post, for the UK Manufacturing PMI this week the "pin bar" where buyers were taking control was the bar 2 min prior to the news release, rather than the 1 min bar. The 1 min bar of course further confirmed buyers were in control prior to the release. An obvious question is whether some GBPUSD traders in this case have news information 2 min prior to the release? Secondly, if early release of news is depicted in price action prior to the "market release" is it always in the last couple of minutes prior to the release, and further does it differ by country/type of red news release?

Something to think about while we listen to Delbert McClinton and the appropriately named "Shaky Ground" (thanks Fish)
  • #4,380
  • Jun 2, 2017 11:33am Jun 2, 2017 11:33am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_21.png Size: 34 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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