Heads Up: CHF Rate Hike (Sep 14) | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Heads Up: CHF Rate Hike (Sep 14)
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Heads Up: CHF Rate Hike (Sep 14)

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 13, 2006 6:07am Sep 13, 2006 6:07am
Switzerland is expected to raise Interest Rates tommorrow.

I dont have historic charts to know if everyone take this issue lightly or highly. Thus far, only JPY is not affected by any rate decisions. But CHF is a european money which moves according to fundamental factors. So I guess CHF will move up.
  • #2
  • Sep 13, 2006 6:35am Sep 13, 2006 6:35am
And how about the NZD rate hike decision??

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #3
  • Sep 13, 2006 6:39am Sep 13, 2006 6:39am
Quoting BurgerKing
Switzerland is expected to raise Interest Rates tommorrow.

I dont have historic charts to know if everyone take this issue lightly or highly. Thus far, only JPY is not affected by any rate decisions. But CHF is a european money which moves according to fundamental factors. So I guess CHF will move up.
Does anyone know which CHF pair would be better to trade with this announcement??
  • #4
  • Sep 13, 2006 7:10am Sep 13, 2006 7:10am
I'm sure you can expect more volatility with USDCHF than with EURCHF. IMHO
a journey of a thousand trades begins with a single pip
  • #5
  • Sep 13, 2006 10:01am Sep 13, 2006 10:01am
Quoting BurgerKing
Switzerland is expected to raise Interest Rates tommorrow.

I dont have historic charts to know if everyone take this issue lightly or highly. Thus far, only JPY is not affected by any rate decisions. But CHF is a european money which moves according to fundamental factors. So I guess CHF will move up.
This is very good info BK ! ! Appearantly, you scooped everyone with this info, including FF. I don't see this on any of my economic calanders.

This explains the relative strength we have seen lately compared to the other dollar crosses. I was speculating all kinds of things, now I know.

How did you learn this???
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #6
  • Sep 13, 2006 10:14am Sep 13, 2006 10:14am
BK, just wondering why u expect chf to move up? IMHO, if swiss gonna increase its interest rate, chf will be strengthen, as more ppl will shift from US dollar to chf. Thus, chf chart will be lowered. However, so far chf still manage to stay above 1.2500.
  • #7
  • Sep 13, 2006 10:24am Sep 13, 2006 10:24am
Quoting PipStar
Does anyone know which CHF pair would be better to trade with this announcement??
I would trade the USD/CHF over the EUR/CHF since it is at 8 AM EDT. You would get USD news at 8:30 AM EDT that would increase expectations and pips.

Two trades, one currency pair.
  • #8
  • Sep 13, 2006 11:21am Sep 13, 2006 11:21am
i bought usd/chf and euro/chf...

inside tip...chf not gonna do any hikes this year...in other words..expect dovish tone
mauahhhahhaaha
  • #9
  • Sep 13, 2006 12:03pm Sep 13, 2006 12:03pm
To the person who asked about the NZD interest rates. My suspicion is that the housing market has cooled sufficiently and there should be no change.
  • #10
  • Sep 13, 2006 12:13pm Sep 13, 2006 12:13pm
Quoting turin0107
BK, just wondering why u expect chf to move up? IMHO, if swiss gonna increase its interest rate, chf will be strengthen, as more ppl will shift from US dollar to chf. Thus, chf chart will be lowered. However, so far chf still manage to stay above 1.2500.
When I said CHF will go up, I meant CHF value will go up.
This implies, as you have said, USDCHF would go down.
  • #11
  • Sep 13, 2006 12:51pm Sep 13, 2006 12:51pm
Here's a question. I've read that the interest rate hike on the CHF is expected and probably priced in. Should I still be ready for a spike, just in case? Also, theoretically, since it is expected to be raised, if we were surprised and it stayed the same, do you think there is big potential for the CHF weakening (USD/CHF going up)? Thanks.
Bob
  • #12
  • Sep 13, 2006 1:59pm Sep 13, 2006 1:59pm
Quoting brick911
Here's a question. I've read that the interest rate hike on the CHF is expected and probably priced in. Should I still be ready for a spike, just in case? Also, theoretically, since it is expected to be raised, if we were surprised and it stayed the same, do you think there is big potential for the CHF weakening (USD/CHF going up)? Thanks.
Bob
Why not just straddle it and find out?

In all seriousness, just think about it. If the market is priced for a hike and it happens, why would a spike occur? If they don't raise rates in the same situation why wouldn't it spike weaker? Most of the time the markets are perfectly rational. The dificulty is in determining exactly what its thinking...
  • #13
  • Sep 13, 2006 2:27pm Sep 13, 2006 2:27pm
I don't know much about the fundamentals, but the technicals told me a story and the moral was to be short GBP/CHF and USD/CHF. =\ I just hope the technicals aren't lying this time =\
  • #14
  • Sep 13, 2006 2:42pm Sep 13, 2006 2:42pm
Quoting Darkstar
Why not just straddle it and find out?
Am I the only person on the forum that won't straddle? I have tried it and got burned with volatility and an unusually large spread increase before. It seems like it would not be useful unless you could straddle pretty tight. Perhaps this is another thing that I don't know how to do right?

any input?
  • #15
  • Sep 13, 2006 3:12pm Sep 13, 2006 3:12pm
Quoting squat1962
Am I the only person on the forum that won't straddle? I have tried it and got burned with volatility and an unusually large spread increase before. It seems like it would not be useful unless you could straddle pretty tight. Perhaps this is another thing that I don't know how to do right?

any input?
I don't straddle trade. CHF hike, whether it is actual or just an expectation, will move the CHF up or in the case of the USD/CHF down because the first spike is usually an expectation spike. The news releases and if the expectation is correct, the spike will continue. Otherwise, we would see a retracement following the release.

Remember: Minimize your losses and maximize your returns. That's all you can really do if you are going to trade.
  • #16
  • Sep 13, 2006 4:50pm Sep 13, 2006 4:50pm
Quoting squat1962
Am I the only person on the forum that won't straddle? I have tried it and got burned with volatility and an unusually large spread increase before. It seems like it would not be useful unless you could straddle pretty tight. Perhaps this is another thing that I don't know how to do right?

any input?
I was thinking just get in one way to avoid having to straddle, set take profits further away than SL and hope for no slippage. If you end up 50/50 win/loss on this strategy its a winner (pending slippage). Havent had the guts (or stupidity maybe: ) to try this one yet. Straddles probably work better even though they have to move pretty far nowadays to get past the spread.
  • #17
  • Sep 13, 2006 10:13pm Sep 13, 2006 10:13pm
Market News attached regarding rate hike in CHF.
Attached Image
  • #18
  • Sep 13, 2006 10:36pm Sep 13, 2006 10:36pm
Since it's expected to raise the rate by 25points, USDCHF might still go down as initial spike...but if the statements that will follow are considered dovish, then it might quickly retrace...Kinda tricky to trade this one...even for straddle, I think...
  • #19
  • Sep 14, 2006 12:54am Sep 14, 2006 12:54am

First, I've been lurking and reading the news threads with Great interest for some time now but was unable to post ... finally got it squared away ....So, I woluld like to offer my deepest and sincerest Thanks to All the regulars who have confirmed some of my thoughts, brought new ideas to the table and shared hard earned experience and research. Keep up the great work on this increadibly valuable resource (Forum and Calendar).


Quote
Kinda tricky to trade this one...even for straddle, I think...

Did some research ... last time the Swiss rased rate .25 was June 15. Definitely wipsaw material but an 80 pip move top to bottom. here's how it looked, the best view i could get was the 5 min chart. Im thinking a sell stop only, but then if there's no hike I'd miss out on the upside. Or just trade the fade (retracement afterward).

Also note last time the 12:30 GMT time as opposed to the 12:00 listed on the calendar is this correct??
Attached Image
Watching the charts like Spock.
  • #20
  • Sep 14, 2006 1:59am Sep 14, 2006 1:59am
See attached
Attached Image
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