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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,601
  • May 18, 2017 3:27pm May 18, 2017 3:27pm
Kneejerk misinterpretation of Comey video shook the boat a little there. Shows just how precarious things are at current levels. Like a coin balanced on edge.
Also offers a clue to how much Trump risk is weighing on dollar at the moment.
  • #151,602
  • Edited 4:21pm May 18, 2017 3:34pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting ashenv
{quote} Being from TX it took me awhile to come around on this being a real issue. Unless I am mistaken NAFTA enjoys relatively broad support in this state. In TX, NAFTA was credited with helping to ease the effects of the recession that really hurt other parts of the US (along with the mini-resurgence of drilling (oil/natgas) and a relatively stable property market as compared to the coasts). I'll take a shot at summarizing this: 1. Trump campaign promises a NAFTA scrap or massive renegotiation, threatens tariffs (to build wall, etc.) as...
Not just TX. Many states. All red ones too. It's rustbelt v cornbelt, and nowhere near as simple as Trump thinks it is. His rhetoric suggests he believes there is massive Republican support for scrapping (renegotiating) Nafta. Hes wrong there. He picked a side. He will have that same look on his face when he said "Who knew healthcare was so complicated?!" again if he puts nafta on the table for real.

Nice timeline. Bookmarked it. Maybe consider adding to it the recent WH test of these waters re: Canadian lumber, Mexico's reaction to threats re: abandonment of US corn imports. Just a suggestion. I wonder though if perhaps in the end it would read like a very detailed bridge to nowhere. We will see.
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  • #151,603
  • May 18, 2017 3:43pm May 18, 2017 3:43pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Not just TX. Many states. All red ones too. It's rustbelt v cornbelt, and nowhere near as simple as Trump thinks it is. His rhetoric suggests he believes there is massive Republican support for scrapping (renegotiating) Nafta. Hes wrong there. He picked a side. He will have that same look on his face when he said "Who knew healthcare was so complicated?!" again if he puts nafta on the table for real.
The same look he'll also have when Jared flops trying to solve that "easy issue" of Israel and Palestine... lol.

For a couple of NAFTA memos widely reported to have been leaked it sure is tough to actually find them.
  • #151,604
  • May 18, 2017 3:48pm May 18, 2017 3:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I meant irrelevant in the context of the risk move, (which now may have changed after the post), and calling early because I wont be back until later this evening.
Gotcha. Thought you meant PAwise
  • #151,605
  • May 18, 2017 4:06pm May 18, 2017 4:06pm
Quoting nines
{quote} boom
Was that the wrap up?
  • #151,606
  • May 18, 2017 4:14pm May 18, 2017 4:14pm
Superb days for trading across the board ...

If this is what I think it is? ... Here capital maxed out across the board for the first time in a while ...

sisse

=== =====

@Pharm0r

Where is the daily wrap up in the Euro ???

....
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,607
  • May 18, 2017 4:21pm May 18, 2017 4:21pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Nice timeline. Bookmarked it. Maybe consider adding to it the recent WH test of these waters re: Canadian lumber, Mexico's reaction to threats re: abandonment of US corn imports. Just a suggestion. I wonder though if perhaps in the end it would read like a very detailed bridge to nowhere. We will see.
Done. I hope it is a bridge to nowhere. Most of what I found regarding what changes they want to make are fairly cosmetic (labeling, lumber, deficits, e-business), but how can we tell with this administration? Guess we'll have to wait for more leaks.
  • #151,608
  • May 18, 2017 4:24pm May 18, 2017 4:24pm
Quoting sisse
Superb days for trading across the board ... If this is what I think it is? ... Here capital maxed out across the board for the first time in a while ... sisse....
Sorry for my ignorance! what does "capital maxed out' mean? Investors liquidate and cashed out their money?
  • #151,609
  • May 18, 2017 4:26pm May 18, 2017 4:26pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Sorry for my ignorance! what does "capital maxed out' mean? Investors liquidate and cashed out their money?
Sisse is all in.
  • #151,610
  • May 18, 2017 4:26pm May 18, 2017 4:26pm
Hail to the Squid. Somewhere down the line of succession there's Munchkin.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/s...162529773.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,611
  • May 18, 2017 4:48pm May 18, 2017 4:48pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Sisse is all in.
...and am here taking anxiety pills everytime I look at my used margin , I would like to know his potfolio at the moment or even a sneak peek .
what is that Sisse thinks it is Goosebone !
hints : Euro full extension [wipe out of LT bears] , equities pullback [BTFD] > FED is going to hike and Trump will deliver tax cuts and ECB will restrain from bullish comments > risk will fade again without new evidence and ultimately a timeline for actions that could be taken against trump > very cheap tickets for euro 1.06xx ? or is he loaded on sterling [wtf was that flashcrash about]? maybe he's selling yen* which played as a classic safe haven in the last couple of days but flows will be back to normal...

My bad , too much thinking outloud and too little facts to analyse .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #151,612
  • May 18, 2017 4:55pm May 18, 2017 4:55pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} ...and am here taking anxiety pills everytime I look at my used margin , I would like to know his potfolio at the moment or even a sneak peek . what is that Sisse thinks it is Goosebone ! hints : Euro full extension [wipe out of LT bears] , equities pullback [BTFD] > FED is going to hike and Trump will deliver tax cuts and ECB will restrain from bullish comments > risk will fade again without new evidence and ultimately a timeline for actions that could be taken against trump > very cheap tickets for euro 1.06xx ? or is he loaded...
I would bet he is all in mostly through Dollar (long UJ, Short EU & GU), with some shorts on Euro Bund and long on Euro Equities
  • #151,613
  • May 18, 2017 5:06pm May 18, 2017 5:06pm
Well I doubt it's SNAP.
  • #151,614
  • May 18, 2017 5:31pm May 18, 2017 5:31pm
Quoting goosebone
Well I doubt it's SNAP.
I doubt its any risk assets ... but I guess we could make a case for it.........?

in any case, we obviously got the preview of what might happen on Wednesday with Trump fueled headlines. today I consider this a pullback with the general sentiment not improving, therefore looking for further yen downside. long vol, gold, etc.

as ref I got 111.7 in yen and 1242 only as a dotted line for gold.
  • #151,615
  • Edited 9:41pm May 18, 2017 9:09pm | Edited 9:41pm
On the TA side on the monthly chart anyone can see how 1.108xx/1.112x has some history. Monthly candles respect this area pretty consistently since we entered this range in '15.
I look at it like 1.097x's little sister (quite sure that makes no sense to anyone but me and a select few who may have a similar history with hallucinogens but I'll just mention it anyway).
You can see on the weekly chart that at the end of '16 "the Trump candle" was a final break down and out of this area which many had as MT flip at the time.
1.1115 has a strong supporting role on many larger mofu charts too but this isn't really the thread for that.
Thats all history anyway.

Thursday's close at 1.110x was a quick attempt at a bear roll if one is tracking 1.1097 but missed by a hair looking neutral to me. Easily neutral if 1.1082 is what you are watching.
The weekly (so far) failed attempt into the large resistance zone of that Trump candle appears bearish neutral to me but the solid break of last week hi is undeniably bullish. So my current view is net neutral on W if it were closed right here.
The monthly reach into that resistance zone is (halfway in) looking bullish.

FA wise it seems the question to try and answer is how much risk off sentiment are we dealing with here? And how much more fuel does it need to last?
As doubt about domestic growth and tax cuts creep in while the President is defying dimensional physics with just how far he can shove his head up into his Twitter, treasury yields give a clue, dollar speaks up, and Euro + Yen make a statement. Equities are following suit in volatility spats but that market has gotten so good at brushing it all off, it's hard to tell what would ever stop the music, and a couple days of turmoil at the top does not make a bull into a bear.
Very interested to see W close in EU and UJ as I think it could indicate whether flows to *euro work like they just did only within a specific "window of risk". In other words more risk off sentiment flows to dollar, treasuries, less risk off sentiment to gold, *yen, right in the middle "window" to *euro, *yen.
And/Or if the risk cheat sheet will need a renovation.
  • #151,616
  • May 18, 2017 9:49pm May 18, 2017 9:49pm
Quoting goosebone
In other words more risk off sentiment flows to dollar, treasuries, less risk off sentiment to gold, *yen, right in the middle "window" to *euro, *yen.

In ultimate risk off scenario, such as 2008-09, dollar took a beating and gold received a surge like no other... So is there a more, more risk off scenario bc from what I have seen, that appears it?
  • #151,617
  • May 18, 2017 9:50pm May 18, 2017 9:50pm
Quoting goosebone
On the TA side on the monthly chart anyone can see how 1.108xx/1.112x has some history. Monthly candles respect this area pretty consistently since we entered this range in '15. I look at it like 1.097x's little sister (quite sure that makes no sense to anyone but me and a select few who may have a similar history with hallucinogens but I'll just mention it anyway). You can see on the weekly chart that at the end of '16 "the Trump candle" was a final break down and out of this area which many had as MT flip at the time. 1.1115 has a strong supporting...
dont be surprised if we sub 1.1 in the euro today or somewhere middle of next week. I am not shorting though because usd is pretty risky currency to trade with trump around
  • #151,618
  • May 18, 2017 10:04pm May 18, 2017 10:04pm
Quoting goosebone
Equities are following suit in volatility spats but that market has gotten so good at brushing it all off, it's hard to tell what would ever stop the music, and a couple days of turmoil at the top does not make a bull into a bear.
...all partays have to end some day. I am trading SPY Super bears. I think the top is in at $240 until more pleasant winds blow out of DC. Super bear means I sell SPY call verts about 6 weeks out to fund near the money long puts (or put spreads) in a similar time frame. For instance, the Jun30 $240/243 bear calls pays about 90c and the Jun 16 $235/230 bull puts are about $1.20 debit. What do you think will happen past FOMC week if there's sos political drams AND the FOMC pops another 25bps ffr hike in June?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,619
  • Edited 10:46pm May 18, 2017 10:24pm | Edited 10:46pm
a little more lotto ticket on the SPY puts combo shown, about a $150 bet b/e's at $224 (2-3 days b4 expiry) and pays 6x to 10x anywhere below $218. $218 what like a 7% slide I know hard to believe the market will ever slide again without some kind of spook....but I still don't think it will rally, so the old sideways pa oh no.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,620
  • May 18, 2017 10:48pm May 18, 2017 10:48pm
Quoting pmmebids
I doubt its any risk assets ... but I guess we could make a case for it.........?
we might look at dirty nasty crude
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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