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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,581
  • May 18, 2017 11:08am May 18, 2017 11:08am
Quoting gatorinla
123.54 may become s/r today, probably valuable later.. that pullback to 123.75 allowed me to enter. ej
Entered right under you. TP?
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #151,582
  • May 18, 2017 12:09pm May 18, 2017 12:09pm
Wont be around for the wrap up- playing hookie and heading to the beach.

All markets look set to close just about where they opened, risk still looming in the air. Oddly quiet as compared to yesterday, everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop via a tweet or ??

Bonds, EU, UJ all irrelevant closes across the board. Dollar in comatose. Without any updates from Trump/NK/Etc week is pretty much over with same levels same trades same all
  • #151,583
  • May 18, 2017 12:17pm May 18, 2017 12:17pm
I will happily take the lead as Pharm0r seems to be struggling.

Sisse is on the money; Sterling is suggesting imminent breakdown alerts now that there is no one to defend!!!
  • #151,584
  • May 18, 2017 12:23pm May 18, 2017 12:23pm
Not ready to agree with an irrelevant close at this early point if we are talking Euro anyway. Really all dollar crosses at rather relevant points imho.
  • #151,585
  • May 18, 2017 12:24pm May 18, 2017 12:24pm
Quoting nines
I will happily take the lead as Pharm0r seems to be struggling. Sisse is on the money; Sterling is suggesting imminent breakdown alerts now that there is no one to defend!!!
all yours buddy excited to see your 6th post (well 6th on this username)
  • #151,586
  • May 18, 2017 12:43pm May 18, 2017 12:43pm
Anyone has an idea on what just happened to market?
  • #151,587
  • May 18, 2017 12:45pm May 18, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting Fadhl
Anyone has an idea on what just happened to market?
FED'S MESTER SAYS FURTHER RATE HIKES WILL BE NEEDED IF ECONOMY EVOLVES AS EXPECTED
18 May 2017, 20:15

MESTER SAYS DELAYING RATE HIKES FOR TOO LONG RISKS RECESSION
18 May 2017, 20:15
  • #151,588
  • May 18, 2017 12:48pm May 18, 2017 12:48pm
Well, stopped out in UJ after trailing down, but fortunately had just entered short in sterling, so... 100 pip drop in 5 seconds. Wow. Unfortunately, my broker has a massive margin req for sterling since brexit. I can see why.
  • #151,589
  • May 18, 2017 1:00pm May 18, 2017 1:00pm
Dollar Jumps After Video Emerges Of Comey Admitting Under Oath That Investigation Obstructions "Never Happened"
  • #151,590
  • Edited May 19, 2017 4:01am May 18, 2017 1:11pm | Edited May 19, 2017 4:01am
Tracking for roll
1.291x GU
1.1082x EU
111.6x UJ
Short EU from 1.1139 tp1 1.0970, otherwise flat.
  • #151,591
  • May 18, 2017 1:15pm May 18, 2017 1:15pm
Quoting sisse
....The Present... ==> We got a clean sweep in the Euro in strong reshuffle towards the single currency, giving clear signals of what is cooking for the end of the year and beyond. Exhaustion move pretty much completed with today's close.
The Future ==> Expecting the usual suspects and real money buying the dip on the closing session in US equities. Message has been delivered loud and clear. ..... sisse
I think Sisse gave us two hints in his yesterday message and today with watch out YEN at NY.
  • #151,592
  • May 18, 2017 1:21pm May 18, 2017 1:21pm
Great day/week for trading continue.... highlight of the day one more time from the US. This is time is an actual bad news and potentially dangerous for the US economy for the MT and LT.

==> US unlocking the break up of NAFTA. Dangerous times as it could (and prolly will) be used for political reasons rather than economic ones. If things are not done properly we maybe witnessing the beginning of the end of the US as leader of free markets and trade.

==> This headline wont have the bells and whistles of the latest DT tweets but from a strictly economic and market perspective I would highlight recommend to track very closely this one as it's a potential real game changer in the US economy.

==> If the US economy survive unharmed from the DT presidency (at least if there is not radical changes in behaviour and policy from the WH) it will be a miracle.... Brexit will have huge dent in free trade and markets from Europe but NAFTA could mark a downward and fast vicious spiral in this front that the world hasn't seen since the interwar period exactly a century ago for those who want to dig deeper ...

sisse


Quoting mirex
sisse, can you clarify: ".... but what do you mean by exhaustion move pretty much completed with today's close? (btw amazing analysis)
Is it clear now?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,593
  • May 18, 2017 1:22pm May 18, 2017 1:22pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I think Sisse gave us two hints in his yesterday message and today with watch out YEN at NY.
He sure did and I know a few folks here that were short took half and trailed the rest after yesterday's NY close.
  • #151,594
  • May 18, 2017 1:33pm May 18, 2017 1:33pm
Of course, I leave for two freaking seconds......

If this is true then it's the reason for the jump, as it'd clear current RISK

Quoting suntan
Dollar Jumps After Video Emerges Of Comey Admitting Under Oath That Investigation Obstructions "Never Happened"
Anyways, out the door- leaving it to nines for the closing, thanks bud
  • #151,595
  • May 18, 2017 1:38pm May 18, 2017 1:38pm
Quoting goosebone
Not ready to agree with an irrelevant close at this early point if we are talking Euro anyway. Really all dollar crosses at rather relevant points imho.
I meant irrelevant in the context of the risk move, (which now may have changed after the post), and calling early because I wont be back until later this evening.
  • #151,596
  • May 18, 2017 1:45pm May 18, 2017 1:45pm
Quoting nines
I will happily take the lead as Pharm0r seems to be struggling. Sisse is on the money; Sterling is suggesting imminent breakdown alerts now that there is no one to defend!!!
boom
  • #151,597
  • May 18, 2017 2:24pm May 18, 2017 2:24pm
Quoting sisse
For actual trading London close will trigger the traditional 'Choose you Poison time' in Sterling* for a major MT leg that will extend till the end of the summer... For NY heads up on YEN ... sisse
When i read sisse's post, then couldnt wait 4 london close and shorted it above 1,30 for MT play.. Also got 2 short Eur positions from 1,105 and 1,115 which make me restless due to the risk off..it's still out there..stops above 1,12
Wise decisions are based on lies we living..
  • #151,598
  • Edited 4:18pm May 18, 2017 2:39pm | Edited 4:18pm
Quoting sisse
==> This headline wont have the bells and whistles of the latest DT tweets but from a strictly economic and market perspective I would highlight recommend to track very closely this one as it's a potential real game changer in the US economy.
Being from TX it took me awhile to come around on this being a real issue. Unless I am mistaken NAFTA enjoys relatively broad support in this state. In TX, NAFTA was credited with helping to ease the effects of the recession that really hurt other parts of the US (along with the mini-resurgence of drilling (oil/natgas) and a relatively stable property market as compared to the coasts). I'll take a shot at summarizing this:
1. Trump campaign promises a NAFTA scrap or massive renegotiation, threatens tariffs (to build wall, etc.) as part of his appeal to working class, contra-Mexico rhetoric, complains of China developing nation status in WTO, etc.
===>(despite this congressional report which claims mostly positive trilateral effect on jobs: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42965.pdf)
2. Trump elected
EDIT: 2a. Trump withdraws from TPP by executive order.
EDIT: 2b. Late Feb - Mexico threatens to end US corn imports (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/02/w...rade.html?_r=0)
3. In April, NAFTA repeal executive order tabled right bf it was signed (presumably on pressure from partners to renegotiate instead)
4. Trump in April slaps 20% tariff on Canadian soft lumber EDIT: On 4/24/17 (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/24/us-to-impose-20-pct-duties-on-canadian-softwood-lumber-ross.html)
5. In early May, Trump scales back major renegotiation memo from March reducing potential impact of new "modernized" trade deal. Sends to Congress.
===> https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-a...fta-1490842268
6. Mexico and Canada indicate willingness to renegotiate, but don't want tariffs
7. Robert Lighthizer confirmed as trade rep. (last week)
8. Today - Trump informs Congress of intent to renegotiate deal activating 3 month research period bf talks (to take place in August it seems)
9. There is political pressure on the US and Mexico side to get the deal redone quickly bf Fall elections.

So, now it's official that a renegotiation will happen. I see what you mean about that being major news with a humble headline today.
I think that's where we are atm. I am looking around to find actual specifics on what changes they want - will follow up on that.
  • #151,599
  • May 18, 2017 2:50pm May 18, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting ashenv
{quote} Being from TX it took me awhile to come around on this being a real issue. Unless I am mistaken NAFTA enjoys relatively broad support in this state. In TX, NAFTA was credited with helping to ease the effects of the recession that really hurt other parts of the US (along with the mini-resurgence of drilling (oil/natgas) and a relatively stable property market as compared to the coasts). I'll take a shot at summarizing this: 1. Trump campaign promises a NAFTA scrap or massive renegotiation, threatens tariffs (to build wall, etc.) as part of...
good and detailed post !!!
  • #151,600
  • May 18, 2017 3:07pm May 18, 2017 3:07pm
If the scenary sisse points about this being in a prewar period, positioning ourselves long CAD could be a very good trade as oil prices could climb due to speculative positioning. A W close bellow 1.359 could be a great signal.
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