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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #66,221
  • May 6, 2017 12:35pm May 6, 2017 12:35pm
Quoting Akaton
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...e-last-4-years Good article for all yen traders traders. Central banks the world over doing this. Probably having a good deal of fun 'controlling outcomes' for now. Wonder how this is gonna end.... personally am hoping the global-all-assets-mega-bubble pop is still a couple years away.
Oh ya it is. Japan's social security fund (GPIF) wasn't getting the returns they needed off government bonds so they like doubled their allocation of domestic stock, Nikkei shot up and I don't think it's looked back since.
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  • #66,222
  • Edited May 7, 2017 8:34am May 6, 2017 1:23pm | Edited May 7, 2017 8:34am
UJ up the last 9 Tokyo opens in a row, at least 8 pips with very little downside.

EDIT:
(1/2)^9 = 1/512 (ignoring possibility for sideways market)
1/512 not that statistically unlikely of an event, and in the context of a 450 pip up move even less so.
I'm not gonna trade it with any significant leverage cause if I do that will be the day the pattern breaks, but worth noticing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj up 8 sessions in a row at Tokyo open.png Size: 99 KB
Novice trader, please take my opinion with several grains of salt
  • #66,223
  • May 6, 2017 1:50pm May 6, 2017 1:50pm
Quoting Akaton
UJ up the last 9 Tokyo opens in a row, at least 8 pips with very little downside. (1/2)^9 = 1/512 (ignoring possibility for sideways market) 1/512 not that statistically unlikely of an event, and in the context of a 450 pip up move even less so. I'm not gonna trade it with any significant leverage cause if I do that will be the day the pattern breaks, but worth noticing. {image}
In plain english please
  • #66,224
  • May 6, 2017 2:42pm May 6, 2017 2:42pm
Quoting Arnoud
{quote} Yes its seems to be a psychological side effect from actively speculating.
Speculation? Well that needs to be seen.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #66,225
  • May 7, 2017 5:20am May 7, 2017 5:20am
UJ: another W-pattern may form before heading to 114.7 -117, and then perhaps a collapse of the USD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4_W-PATTERN.png Size: 65 KB
We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #66,226
  • May 7, 2017 7:26am May 7, 2017 7:26am
USD/JPY continues its way South. A correction may be expected the coming week.
  • #66,227
  • May 7, 2017 8:29am May 7, 2017 8:29am
Quoting dweb
UJ: another W-pattern may form before heading to 114.7 -117, and then perhaps a collapse of the USD {image}
113.46 then 114.83. Lets not jump to 117 just yet. Strong resistance ahead. After touching either of the 2 Rs a pullback to 111.14 would be likely. For the moment it seems to be going up. Lets see what happens when market opens. Japs were closed for 2 days b4 the weekend.☺
  • #66,228
  • May 7, 2017 7:05pm May 7, 2017 7:05pm
shorting uj
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 56 KB
  • #66,229
  • May 7, 2017 7:13pm May 7, 2017 7:13pm
Quoting Akaton
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...e-last-4-years Good article for all yen traders traders. Central banks the world over doing this. Probably having a good deal of fun 'controlling outcomes' for now. Wonder how this is gonna end.... personally am hoping the global-all-assets-mega-bubble pop is still a couple years away.
the summary of this article is boj has been artificially lifting uj , and when this support is vexhausted the drop will be huge

ecb did the same and look where eu went

boj is trying to give overdose of Viagra and steroids to keep the Eiffel tower standing , whenever this supply ends .......

in my opinion and i can be wrong but a central bank intervention in stock markets is not good for the economy
  • #66,230
  • May 7, 2017 7:25pm May 7, 2017 7:25pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} the summary of this article is boj has been artificially lifting uj , and when this support is vexhausted the drop will be huge ecb did the same and look where eu went boj is trying to give overdose of Viagra and steroids to keep the Eiffel tower standing , whenever this supply ends ....... in my opinion and i can be wrong but a central bank intervention in stock markets is not good for the economy
Im concerned that stupid congress will give the Fed the authority to do this openly in the future. Janet Yellen has made remarks that if congress authorized the fed would possibly do thiss in the future.

I can see a scenerio where the current market falls/bubble pops everybody panics and congress gets stupid.
  • #66,231
  • May 7, 2017 7:28pm May 7, 2017 7:28pm
I've witnessed enough BoJ interventions in the last 6 years. The BoJ has been artificially raising UsdJpy for a long time. They will increase easing as necessary. To short UsdJpy is to trade against the BOJ. Chances of breaking the Bank of Japan is large even for a Quantum fund. lol

Don't act like the BoJ is trying something new and it's about to fall. They've stated that they will start talk of intervention the closer UsdJpy gets to 100, as agreed upon at the G10 meeting. UsdJpy can only go higher. To say USD demand will fall to the Yen during a Fed tightening cycle is ridiculous.

CitiBank trades more UsdJpy than any of us and they've got a 118 target within 6-12 months.
Quote
The BOJ has set its target yield for the benchmark 10-year Japan government bond at around zero percent, and it has been willing to intervene to keep the benchmark yield in line with its target.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/bank-of-japan-minutes-say-aggressive-easing-remains-path-to-higher-consumer-prices.html
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  • #66,232
  • May 7, 2017 7:31pm May 7, 2017 7:31pm
Quoting wdlforex
{quote} Im concerned that stupid congress will give the Fed the authority to do this openly in the future. Janet Yellen has made remarks that if congress authorized the fed would possibly do thiss in the future. I can see a scenerio where the current market falls/bubble pops everybody panics and congress gets stupid.
con is the opposite of pro , congress / progress

artificially lifting stocks to give a show of economic strength and permitting foreigners to profit at your central bank's cost is stupidity
  • #66,233
  • May 7, 2017 7:34pm May 7, 2017 7:34pm
Quoting Ryan420
I've witnessed enough BoJ interventions in the last 6 years. The BoJ has been artificially raising UsdJpy for a long time. They will increase easing as necessary. To short UsdJpy is to trade against the BOJ. Chances of breaking the Bank of Japan is large even for a Quantum fund. lol Don't act like the BoJ is trying something new and it's about to fall. They've stated that they will start talk of intervention the closer UsdJpy gets to 100, as agreed upon at the G10 meeting. UsdJpy can only go higher. To say USD demand will fall to the Yen during...
with a strong support near friday lows , this does look that way
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #66,234
  • May 7, 2017 7:37pm May 7, 2017 7:37pm
Quoting PatienceFx
shorting uj {image}
quit -10 , i was riding the dropping TL on daily but alas
  • #66,235
  • May 7, 2017 7:48pm May 7, 2017 7:48pm
uj below daily and weekly 100 sma should be bearish but lets see
  • #66,236
  • May 7, 2017 9:55pm May 7, 2017 9:55pm
Too many bears are putting their stops at 113.15-20. Any barrier defense at 113.0 is gone. Could very well be a spike there and pullback/continuation.
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  • #66,237
  • May 8, 2017 2:20am May 8, 2017 2:20am
short UJ

SL: above 113
TP 112
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #66,238
  • May 8, 2017 2:27am May 8, 2017 2:27am
i think will close the gap this week or week after max
Every day there is chances
  • #66,239
  • May 8, 2017 3:11am May 8, 2017 3:11am
Nothing happened ?
Trade
  • #66,240
  • May 8, 2017 4:04am May 8, 2017 4:04am
Quoting Arnoud
Nothing happened ?
What were u expecting?. Uj opened with a gap of 20+ as expected. Went lower 40 odd pips as expected and will go to either 1208 or 113.25 during ny. That needs to be seen. Enough happening....☺.
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