News trading discussion - continuation

Friday
15:30
05/05/17
US The number of people employed outside agriculture is CONFLICT
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), USA, USDJPY
The average response when triggers trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability of bidding.

Great weekend to everyone.

Inserted Video

Wednesday
09:00
10.05.17
NO Core of the consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
Probability of bidding.

Wednesday
17:30
10.05.17
US Oil and oil products reserves
(US Crude Oil Inventories), United States, USDJPY
The average reaction when triggers trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

Thursday
00:00
11.05.17
NZ Interest rate
(NZ Official Cash Rate), New Zealand, NZDUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability of bidding.

Thursday
10:30
11.05.17
SE Consumer Price Index
(SE CPI), Sweden, EURSEK
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
Probability of bidding.

Thursday
11:30
11.05.17
GB Industrial production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Thursday
14:00
11.05.17
GB Official BA Bid
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability of bidding.

Thursday
17:30
11.05.17
US Natural gas reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), United States, #NG
The average response when triggers trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding

Friday
15:30
12.05.17
US Core of the consumer price index
(US Core CPI), United States, USDJPY
The average reaction when triggers trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability of bidding.

Great weekend to everyone.

Inserted Video

Monday
01:45
05.15.17
NZ Retail Sales GOOD
(NZ Retail Sales), New Zealand, NZDUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability of bidding.

The news result is good for usa ..

The fact is :
EURUSD = UP
AUDUSD = UP
USDJPY = UP
NZDUSD = UP
USDCAD = DOWN

Why this happen ??
How i can pick the correct pair to trade before news ??

thank you.

It is more complicated than that - especially with event like NFP- it can look good but some other data [like unemployment] is not. Or maybe the data is good but it effects the interest rate decision. Or maybe it was good but that was allready priced in. Or maybe some other thing.
Being able to analyaze Macro is not easy and many analysts get it wrong.

My advice- don't try to understand [at least for now].

Follow the price!

Thanks for your reply pulke..

yes i just switch my position when the price is fight back the news result,..

In simple terms you need to know how the economies are in the cycle and what central bank policy is as well as expected path of the central bank policy. Without this knowledge you are shooting blind because it gives you the knowledge to rank each economy by strength according to economic data. You still need to account for news that might effect sentiment which will dampen or even alter which pair to trade. It is important to note that economic indicators fluctuate according to the cycle and seasonal effects. While this might seem obvious it doesn't seem to be understood as far as retail traders are concerned as they tend to favour charts. Taking last Friday's numbers for example, they were soft and didn't meet expectations - short term the $ sold off but long term those numbers fall under the transition from a usual soft Q1 so ultimately they don't affect the Feds rate hike policy. You mentioned pairs against the US$ that are commodity driven (CAD,AUD, NZD) and to include these in your currency ranking to trade you need to account for additional commodity data in addition to the respective economies underlying fundamentals. CAD for example is tightly correlated with OIL, AUD with metals and mining, NZD with dairy. you can trade these pairs on commodity data points and at the very least you need to be aware of the data being release so that you don't open a trade on that pair when commodity related data is going to be released later in the day. With AUD you also need to account for China's economy as this is a major driver in AUD long term.

My process is studying economies and each day i plot the strength of each using macro\micro analysis as well as sentiment. Before the news event is released i know which pairs have the most potential and which is likely to be flat. I wont lie to you and should state that while i don't look at charts i ultimately have to do more work to get to this point but with good reason - it is vastly more reliable than looking at technical analysis.

Tuesday
11:30
16.05.17
GB Consumer Price Index GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
The average response when triggers trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Tuesday
16:15
16.05.17
US Industrial Production
(US Industrial Production), USA, USDJPY
The average response when triggers trigger 0.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability of bidding.

Wednesday
11:30
05/17/17
GB Number of unemployed
(GB Claimant Count Change), England, GBPUSD
The average reaction when triggers trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

Wednesday
17:30
05/17/17
US Oil and oil products reserves
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
The average reaction when triggers trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability of bidding.

vv, why didn't you take the trade right before news release as usual?