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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,881
  • May 5, 2017 8:21am May 5, 2017 8:21am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Gator, uj 113.4x /114.8x. . What do u think.?
my expectation was 111.14, its is above it.. the tl people have entered already. i can't touch till after 113.38/.39. atm i am not looking.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,882
  • May 5, 2017 8:24am May 5, 2017 8:24am
Unpredictable of course, but its hard to expect much from speeches this afternoon. I guess if any surprises came from Fed speeches, counterintuitively, it might more likely come from the other two as opposed to Yellen given the topics. But I doubt loose lips sink any ships today.
  • #150,883
  • May 5, 2017 8:29am May 5, 2017 8:29am
Quoting Pharm0r
let NY open
I thought it was open an hour and a half ago?
  • #150,884
  • May 5, 2017 8:35am May 5, 2017 8:35am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} I thought it was open an hour and a half ago?
Sorry. I stand corrected.
  • #150,885
  • May 5, 2017 8:35am May 5, 2017 8:35am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} I thought it was open an hour and a half ago?
stock market opens @ 9:30
  • #150,886
  • May 5, 2017 8:38am May 5, 2017 8:38am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Sorry. I stand corrected.
You weren't wrong, technically
  • #150,887
  • May 5, 2017 8:59am May 5, 2017 8:59am
Quoting goosebone
Unpredictable of course, but its hard to expect much from speeches this afternoon. I guess if any surprises came from Fed speeches, counterintuitively, it might more likely come from the other two as opposed to Yellen given the topics. But I doubt loose lips sink any ships today.
just looking for a retrace overdue first and some topping/bottoming at a S/R, anywhere i can pick up a run with a small stop mostly. nothing too complicated. in out feast or famine. market time lines seem to be widened. one never knows what is priced in. we did get some pump b4 a good employment. the trick now is to figure if the pump matched the report.

the devil's in the detail, at under 5% a great number. how does it improve? i mean its what the fed wanted (raise wise). but with a stronger usd, it brings oil prices down. oil being one of the better inflation/deflation movers. me having the unrealistic 14.x target. so how can the fed raise is my question. the fed needs inflation. the fed will have a hard time with this balancing act. a stronger usd brings commodities lower. inturn it pressures fed's inflation target. is my view. where that fine line is, is above my payscale. other than a bunch of speculation like this same bs i write. others doing the same dont know either.

ok we got all this... now lets adds those commodity countries such as canada.. check out it's employment data. will cheaper oil because of a stronger usd help them? probably not. the fed's role is more complicated than ever. its not a black and white deal. with stocks at a high. it's not as easy as some let on it to be. its definitely well above my paygrade. so i stick to physics. each action has an equal and opposite reaction.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,888
  • May 5, 2017 9:01am May 5, 2017 9:01am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You weren't wrong, technically
Yea got confused in nyse and us session for forex.☺
  • #150,889
  • May 5, 2017 9:22am May 5, 2017 9:22am
Quoting hoom
{quote} lower revisions casting a shadow on the upbeat data ...also the participation rate is lower thus lower unemeployment data not that positive .
There is no room for doubts in this report. It's a very solid report, 4.4% unemployment generating +200k jobs in full employment with the rest pretty much inline is a solid report here or anywhere ...there is nothing to doubt from a strictly technical and macro point of view, ... We are back on the exact multiyear trend and clearly showing that last report was a one off by a mile or two...

... Updates coming for the European close in Dollar ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,890
  • May 5, 2017 9:24am May 5, 2017 9:24am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} just looking for a retrace overdue first and some topping/bottoming at a S/R, anywhere i can pick up a run with a small stop mostly. nothing too complicated. in out feast or famine. market time lines seem to be widened. one never knows what is priced in. we did get some pump b4 a good employment. the trick now is to figure if the pump matched the report. the devil's in the detail, at under 5% a great number. how does it improve? i mean its what the fed wanted (raise wise). but with a stronger usd, it brings oil prices down. oil being one...
Good points as always. And I remember when your last "unrealistic" target on that 56.xx got hit.
  • #150,891
  • May 5, 2017 9:27am May 5, 2017 9:27am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Good points as always. And I remember when your last "unrealistic" target on that 56.xx got hit.
56 is part of 14.. 56 brent was a minimal norm b4 14.x$ brent.. one would have to go back to the low in oil irt as posted back then. sometime after that LL, also a posted target was hit a yearish b4. it may be mixed with the LL in gasoline target back then.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,892
  • May 5, 2017 9:31am May 5, 2017 9:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 56 is part of 14.. 56 brent was a minimal norm b4 14.x$ brent
I remember. Of course theres a pretty huge difference in implications between 14 and 56 but at 100+ plenty said 26 was chicken little because of those implications. Sky didnt fall though when we hit 26.
  • #150,893
  • May 5, 2017 9:37am May 5, 2017 9:37am
Quoting sisse
{quote} There is no room for doubts in this report. It's a very solid report, 4.4% unemployment generating +200k jobs in full employment with the rest pretty much inline is a solid report here or anywhere ...there is nothing to doubt from a strictly technical and macro point of view, ... We are back on the exact multiyear trend and clearly showing that last report was a one off by a mile or two... ... Updates coming for the European close in Dollar ... sisse
What about participation? Wouldnt wages have gone up if the good unemployment print was due to more real demand for employees?
  • #150,894
  • May 5, 2017 9:40am May 5, 2017 9:40am
Quoting The Fool
RE: the NFP, the Fed, and the Stock & Bond markets: we're not there yet. Markets are still fixated on politics.
Not much reaction to the NFP. I remember when the Fed and the data announcements that it might care about were big news. What will Bullard say? Is it tapir time? Oh god don't take the punch bowl away! Now, not so much. The prospect of 2-3 25 bps ffr hikes in a year in itself is nbd. Drain the balance sheet ok what does that mean? All this might and prolly will be a big deal but as I said, we're not there yet. Meanwhile, the political themes - can DJT get some deals done? Will the EMU dissolve? How about a little WWIII? - these are more likely to be in the news that moves the markets. When these questions are settled one way or the other we might see some directional moves, until then, ranging. Prolly the closest I can guess will be a relief rally in the euro (already somewhat underway) and EZ equities on the back of a Macron victory next week. That prolly will drag US equities along somewhat.

Trump's Repub House "win" on health care will fade pretty quick as the Senate takes it up & it will take them a month or more to massage it into shape. But that frees up the House to maybe start talking tax reform and infrastructure spending, the big sexy candy items for WS - the corporate tax cut alone is like a speedball shot direct to the brain of WS. That talk in the fin press will be enough to slide up US equities. So, sos, sideways is the new down. Keep some powder dry & btfd, unless the dip is WWIII, in which case the dry powder might buy Spam for the bunker, if you're lucky.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150,895
  • May 5, 2017 9:42am May 5, 2017 9:42am
Quoting sisse
{quote} There is no room for doubts in this report. It's a very solid report, 4.4% unemployment generating +200k jobs in full employment with the rest pretty much inline is a solid report here or anywhere ...there is nothing to doubt from a strictly technical and macro point of view, ... We are back on the exact multiyear trend and clearly showing that last report was a one off by a mile or two... ... Updates coming for the European close in Dollar ... sisse
no doubts about that , just poiting out the fact that as of late trading wise markets participants focus more on wages as it plays directly into inflation and tend to ignore jobs and especially unemployment that met Fed goals so going lower via less participation is perceived as neutral nothing upbeat to look for there but wages growth y/y is soft thus the kneejerk reaction in us dollar ...and for instance , dxy looks set to loose 99.3x MT/LT !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,896
  • May 5, 2017 9:49am May 5, 2017 9:49am
Quoting hoom
{quote} no doubts about that , just poiting out the fact that as of late trading wise markets participants focus more on wages as it plays directly into inflation and tend to ignore jobs and especially unemployment that met Fed goals so going lower via less participation is perceived as neutral nothing upbeat to look for there but wages growth y/y is soft thus the kneejerk reaction in us dollar ...and for instance , dxy looks set to loose 99.3x MT/LT !
Just in ...

White house advisor Gary Cohn: The US still isn't seeing wage inflation

  1. Wage growth has been less encouraging news
  2. Says regulatory change is needed to create wage growth
  3. Trump pleased with unemployment numbers
  4. Economy doing ok but with jobs that don't pay much
  5. Many companies with 35% rate pay zero taxes because of deductions

Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,897
  • May 5, 2017 10:04am May 5, 2017 10:04am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}.........somewhat. Trump's Repub House "win" on health care will fade pretty quick as the Senate takes it up & it will take them a month or more to massage it into shape. But that frees up the House to maybe start talking tax reform and infrastructure spending, the big sexy candy ......
More like beat it into submission and send it back to the house to die. The "win" they are seeking here will come in the form of a less than earnest "We tried."
  • #150,898
  • May 5, 2017 10:10am May 5, 2017 10:10am
UK100 shorts stopped @ BE
waiting for 7340 to re-consider
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #150,899
  • May 5, 2017 10:13am May 5, 2017 10:13am
The Fed itself might succumb to politics. Maybe more interesting then. Yellen will be gone and DJT will replace her with.....? He will also I believe appoint 5 new Fed governors in his 4-yr term.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...g-for-mischief

"Most criticisms are cosmetic and deceptively hide a serious agenda: politicizing the Fed. The simplest argument is that the bank’s 12 regional banks are no longer really representative of the country:...."

lol...do.the country's representatives really represent the country? The Democrats are an elitist bunch and the only places they can reliably win elections are the places where elitists live. They only pay lip service to the issues of the working class or the poor or even the middle class. The Republicans are divided between the old-school elitists and their replacements, the Tea Party types. The latter are really the closest thing we have to true representational govt, which should be cause for alarm....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150,900
  • May 5, 2017 10:23am May 5, 2017 10:23am
They dont make 'em like they used to.
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