The Really Useless Thread | Page 7544 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,861
  • May 5, 2017 5:01am May 5, 2017 5:01am
For the NFP release and for the rest of the day going into next week:

I would watch for a very high spike back to the 1.10 area and then back down towards 1.0950 and then hold below that.

My reasoning is that the price would want to re-test the highs at 1.0990 and 1.10 and then finally come back down for the week going into the French election, because no matter what the polls say, no one knows how the voters will truly act on election day.
  • #150,862
  • Edited 5:23am May 5, 2017 5:06am | Edited 5:23am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} well ...can't say I could disagree much with Fadhl ..but my point being that whatever the headline number is and the initial kneejerk reaction to it, once the dust settles the real flows could well be dictated by the other numbers and of course wage inflation which is a def Fed trigger and for me is the one to watch here.
Seems a 4-7 cent increase in AHE to around $26.19/20 would be inline right? And a no change or drop is a flop. Over $26.24 is overshoot? Something like that? (thats what I meant. Got your point loud and clear.)
  • #150,863
  • May 5, 2017 5:34am May 5, 2017 5:34am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Seems a 4-7 cent increase in AHE to around $26.19/20 would be inline right? And a no change or drop is a flop. Over $26.24 is overshoot? Something like that? (thats what I meant. Got your point loud and clear.)
Sorry haven't been looking at those figures in such depth, I just look at the simple overall figures and revisions if any, eg last month AHE increase 0.2% this month projected 0.3% etc.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #150,864
  • May 5, 2017 6:23am May 5, 2017 6:23am
Welcome back commercial!
  • #150,865
  • May 5, 2017 6:49am May 5, 2017 6:49am
TA levels I am eyeballing: 1.088x to the downside which could give way to 1.082x. A break of that level next week should point to 1.073x and south.
To the upside looking at a breach of the handle giving way to 1.104x/5x (and clearing the way into 1.114x for next weeks)
Already exhausted any FA analysis I got and my event map is up there too so...

Good luck to all trading this event or holding through. It's got potential to shift the field a bit.
  • #150,866
  • May 5, 2017 7:27am May 5, 2017 7:27am
Quoting Pharm0r
Welcome back commercial!
...been lurking a lot, my bad! ..thread's been great as ever though! GL all
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #150,867
  • May 5, 2017 7:27am May 5, 2017 7:27am
...i think we need a bit of a hand here especially on the FA front...

In a nutshell: Markets expecting a positive number and revision. Inline and overshoot = RMT .... Flop and we are done for the week on the European close for the French play...

On the TA front MT in play from the European close ....ST and news flows already in play since FED...

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,868
  • May 5, 2017 7:32am May 5, 2017 7:32am
...overshoot in both the headline and unemployment (full employment confirmed) ....inline slightly soft wages...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,869
  • May 5, 2017 7:37am May 5, 2017 7:37am
Quoting traderguy7
For the NFP release and for the rest of the day going into next week: I would watch for a very high spike back to the 1.10 area and then back down towards 1.0950 and then hold below that. My reasoning is that the price would want to re-test the highs at 1.0990 and 1.10 and then finally come back down for the week going into the French election, because no matter what the polls say, no one knows how the voters will truly act on election day.
Spike to recent highs of 1.0990 confirmed. Now for the second leg, I expect movement back toward 1.0950 and hold below that by the end of the day going into the French election. Take care.
  • #150,870
  • May 5, 2017 7:38am May 5, 2017 7:38am
Quoting sisse
...overshoot in both the headline and unemployment (full employment confirmed) ....inline slightly soft wages... sisse
lower revisions casting a shadow on the upbeat data ...also the participation rate is lower thus lower unemeployment data not that positive .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,871
  • May 5, 2017 7:42am May 5, 2017 7:42am
Net=inline. Muted reaction.
  • #150,872
  • May 5, 2017 7:46am May 5, 2017 7:46am
Quoting gatorinla
std.. going to miss the action.. a turd or a golden egg for me later..
turd...

atm usdx testing low.. between it made that HH.. with the eu, may have Some R anytime now toward 1010. that HH on usdx may make the atm LL test supportive on a fail. along with eu in the R atm.. plus good unemployment, (normally good for usd)..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 30 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,873
  • May 5, 2017 7:50am May 5, 2017 7:50am
Quoting goosebone
Net=inline. Muted reaction.
Hi goosebone,
So with this data and numbers, market's reaction is normal. I mean everyone was expecting to see this rally in case of a strong nfp..?
  • #150,874
  • May 5, 2017 7:56am May 5, 2017 7:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} turd... atm usdx testing low.. between it made that HH.. with the eu, may have Some R anytime now toward 1010. that HH on usdx may make the atm LL test supportive on a fail. along with eu in the R atm.. plus good unemployment, (normally good for usd).. {image}
Gator, uj 113.4x /114.8x. . What do u think.?
  • #150,875
  • May 5, 2017 8:02am May 5, 2017 8:02am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Hi goosebone, So with this data and numbers, market's reaction is normal. I mean everyone was expecting to see this rally in case of a strong nfp..?
Expectations for an overshoot turns overshoot into inline (so to speak). My feeling was a beat of 205k would be seen as overshoot. Should have made that number a little bit higher (230k?) but it was close. The wage number was inline with printed forecast so soft. The revisions for March are ugly. The Unemployment number, even U6 were pretty.
So net neutral. My guess is we land at my inline number for the week close. My guesses havent gotten me far.
  • #150,876
  • May 5, 2017 8:06am May 5, 2017 8:06am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} .
Thank you for sharing your thoughts, much appreciated. Cheers mate.
  • #150,877
  • May 5, 2017 8:06am May 5, 2017 8:06am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Expectations for an overshoot turns overshoot into inline (so to speak). My feeling was a beat of 205k would be seen as overshoot. Should have made that number a little bit higher but it was close. The wage number was inline with printed forecast so soft. The revisions for March are ugly. The Unemployment number, even U6 were pretty. So net neutral. My guess is we land at my inline number for the week close. My guesses havent gotten me far.
My forecast for the first half is on-point (spiking to recent highs of 1.0990 after NFP). Looking for confirmation of the second half of my forecast for (movement back towards 1.0950 and holding below into the weekend of the French election).
  • #150,878
  • May 5, 2017 8:10am May 5, 2017 8:10am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Thank you for sharing your thoughts, much appreciated. Cheers mate.
Also check hoom's point about the participation rate. Much like a burrito at Chipotle, its the kind of stat that, once the good unemployment number starts to digest, gives the market 2nd thoughts about what they just ate.
  • #150,879
  • May 5, 2017 8:11am May 5, 2017 8:11am
mber for the week close. My guesses havent gotten me far.[/quote]
General expectaion is /was (dont know for sure) that strong nfp would be a decider for june rate hike. We have that and then the unemployment rate decrease. Yellen is talking in few hours may say something hawkish to give hope to eu shorts and uj longs.☺
  • #150,880
  • May 5, 2017 8:13am May 5, 2017 8:13am
let NY open
18 traders viewing now