USD/TRY | Page 40 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/TRY

Similar Threads

USD/TRY and EUR/TRY 12 replies

Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others) 2,321 replies

Lets try something new CUT OFF DATE 5 replies

USD/TRY fundamental analysis 1 reply

Anyone try using XAU/USD - XAU/EUR as proxy for EUR/USD? 4 replies

Attachments: USD/TRY
Exit Attachments

USD/TRY

  • #781
  • Edited 5:22pm Dec 19, 2016 1:57pm | Edited 5:22pm
- Russian ambassador assassination in Turkey:-

Inserted Video


- Current financial situation:-

Inserted Video
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdtry.png Size: 28 KB
  • #782
  • Jan 14, 2017 12:53pm Jan 14, 2017 12:53pm
Looks like this may have topped for now.

Central bank action and promises from the government to "root out speculators"

Also El-Erian Says Buy Emerging-Market Currencies That Fell Too Much

So that might also include the MXN
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY.png Size: 70 KB
  • #783
  • Jan 29, 2017 1:53am Jan 29, 2017 1:53am
Turkey rating cut to junk by FITCH...usd / try will touch to 4.20 from 3.86...
  • #784
  • May 3, 2017 1:06am May 3, 2017 1:06am
Not sure if anyone else still pays attention to the Lira, but we are getting very close to a possible longer term trade setup. USD/TRY is currently approaching a major corridor price: 3.5000. With the evolution of Erdogan's reign in Turkey and his new and improved "powers"--the same powers that spurred traders to sell off the Lira over the last few years, I am establishing a modest long position in the event we see a turn. I am looking all the way up to 5.0000 for a target. The current trend is bearish, so this is a risky trade, my MO is start small and think big. If the market blows much through 3.5, I'll let it have my stop and continue on the search for other opportunities. The hope here is to to see support at 3.5, and preferably pin bars on dips below or near that threshold.

I welcome other views on this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRYDaily.png Size: 28 KB
  • #785
  • May 3, 2017 6:38am May 3, 2017 6:38am
Quoting Scotty B
Not sure if anyone else still pays attention to the Lira, but we are getting very close to a possible longer term trade setup. USD/TRY is currently approaching a major corridor price: 3.5000. With the evolution of Erdogan's reign in Turkey and his new and improved "powers"--the same powers that spurred traders to sell off the Lira over the last few years, I am establishing a modest long position in the event we see a turn. I am looking all the way up to 5.0000 for a target. The current trend is bearish, so this is a risky trade, my MO is start small...
- If I were you, I would find a good shorting area and sell it.
- May be we could see 3.38 or even more 3.34
- Its a very long way down, take whatever you've got in both technical & fundamental knowledge with you in this journey.
- I don't think any more about ups or all time high in this pair(unless another fake coup OR opposition grow in the squares).
- I've just closed my last two long-term longs on this pair, before the Turkish referendum result, because I know Erdo is going to win.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ut.png Size: 24 KB
  • #786
  • May 3, 2017 6:42am May 3, 2017 6:42am
!!!???

Inserted Video



Inserted Video
  • #787
  • May 3, 2017 12:35pm May 3, 2017 12:35pm
I hear you, I'm not sure why or how sending money into Turkey right now is a good idea. It seems that the country is perpetually close to boiling over. Also, Erdogan has kept the TCB on a very short leash and has been vehemently opposed to speculative capital inflows. To me, investing in Turkey just doesn't make sense at this time. I'll maintain a modest "seed" position for now, who knows, maybe my stop will fill your take profit, we'll see! Thanks for your thoughts.
  • #788
  • Edited 3:39pm May 3, 2017 2:24pm | Edited 3:39pm
Quoting Scotty B
I hear you, I'm not sure why or how sending money into Turkey right now is a good idea. It seems that the country is perpetually close to boiling over. Also, Erdogan has kept the TCB on a very short leash and has been vehemently opposed to speculative capital inflows. To me, investing in Turkey just doesn't make sense at this time. I'll maintain a modest "seed" position for now, who knows, maybe my stop will fill your take profit, we'll see! Thanks for your thoughts.
- Can you imagine the victories been achieved in both Syria & Iraq without Turkey.!?
- Shooting down a Russian su-24, Russian ambassador killed in turkey and 6 days ago a Russian warship sunk in the black sea when it collided with a freighter!!!!!
- and a lot helping Turkey in their grand chessboard game.
- also after the referendum, Erdo is becoming unstoppable power.
- Even Putin is sucking it up and be a team player.
- So, definitely buying Turkish Lira and selling both USD and EUR + enjoying positive swaps.

+ A two interesting videos from cfr channel on YT:-

Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #789
  • May 3, 2017 2:37pm May 3, 2017 2:37pm
- The boiling frog syndrome:-

The boiling frog is a common misconception describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability or unwillingness of people to react to or be aware of threats that arise gradually.

+ But why not?

- Expecting U/T @3.36 and E/T @3.6
Attached Image
  • #790
  • May 4, 2017 3:50am May 4, 2017 3:50am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- The boiling frog syndrome:- The boiling frog is a common misconception describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor...
Appreciate the advice, but as a frog, I've already chopped off my toe and that's what's being risked. I have a relatively small long position, one that affords a distant stop. I'm looking longer term, as in months. We'll see what happens.
  • #791
  • May 9, 2017 1:26pm May 9, 2017 1:26pm
Obviously not too much interest in this pair round these parts, but she's choochin' onwards and upwards. I think this thing is going astronomical, maybe not, but so far she's been generous. If the market still feels the same way (financially speaking) about our friend Erdogan, this market will have a tough time finding a ceiling.

I can't help but post a shot of my 1st position. I got lucky, the better way to enter would have been to wait for a confirmation, but we were SO CLOSE to 3.5, I had to start a position.

Medium term I think this will go to 4 L/D.
Attached Image
  • #792
  • May 10, 2017 1:35pm May 10, 2017 1:35pm
I'm out, just wanted to update quickly in the case anyone was following me on this. I don't like the PA on this. I think the Dollar itself will soften a bit this summer. Ever since ~ January 20th we started a pullback on USDTRY. Political, IMHO. This trade has no guts--it's a clear sign to me that there is no conviction in the market. Unless the market can break above the giant bull flag on the longer TFs, I'm out. Also, even on the short side, no conviction for now. I'm walking away from the Lira for now. Still a decent little run!
  • #793
  • May 18, 2017 1:47am May 18, 2017 1:47am
So based on PA and further thinking/ research, I am now long the Lira (short USDTRY). We just hosted Erdogan here in the US and I think the meeting went well. I think this may begin to restore foreign investor confidence and mark a turning point; this may the beginning of dollar flows into Turkey. For this trade to work, we'll want to see 3.5 break and become resistance.
  • #794
  • May 18, 2017 1:52am May 18, 2017 1:52am
Another quick note, regarding the timing of this trade, we are just now knocking at the 3.6 level. Given the sequence of events over the last several days, this could be a decent entry opportunity..time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lirapositio2n.JPG Size: 94 KB
  • #795
  • Jun 7, 2017 4:00am Jun 7, 2017 4:00am
Didn`t find EURTRY topic so couldn`t resist sharing a sell signal on D1 timeframe - "Balance Line" by Bill WIlliams TS. The signal has formed recently, my entry levels are: Sell-stop - 3.93989; Stop-loss - 3.99034 and Take-profit - 3.84883. What do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURTRYDaily.png Size: 32 KB
  • #796
  • Mar 28, 2018 7:55am Mar 28, 2018 7:55am
Guys this pair is amazing. I am having trouble with an exit point though. Maybe if it ever goes down for longer than 1 week?
  • #797
  • Mar 29, 2018 1:58am Mar 29, 2018 1:58am
Quoting SuperTiger
Guys this pair is amazing. I am having trouble with an exit point though. Maybe if it ever goes down for longer than 1 week?
The Turkish economy is about to implode. DO NOT EXIT THIS ANYTIME SOON. Look for 4.6-4.8 before considering an exit.
  • #798
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:51am Apr 9, 2018 9:51am
Guys this pair is like investing in stock, every payday I just add a few hundred. I did set a 5k pip stop loss.
If this pair keeps doing what it does, I retire in 1 1/2 years.
  • #799
  • Apr 10, 2018 4:48am Apr 10, 2018 4:48am
Keep a look out for Turkish news. I’m fortunate to have Reuters Eikon. Economic news matters, but what matter more is political intervention in Turkish Central Bank policies. A few years ago the Turkish CB blew a few billion dollars in a matter of minutes to break everyone’s long position with crazy slippage. It didn’t help the currency at all, but it did hurt many traders. Erdogan is spiteful and stupid and might order the CB to do that again.
  • #800
  • Apr 10, 2018 8:22am Apr 10, 2018 8:22am
It seems that after a short pause, the long trend will continue.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRY.jpg Size: 432 KB
0 traders viewing now