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5 years and still no strategy

  • #701
  • Apr 30, 2017 5:49pm Apr 30, 2017 5:49pm
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Sure, people add and pull orders all the time. The question should be how will you use that to your advantage? You may have a strong idea where people are going to be buying or selling, but you can't see it. Just because a candle closes green doesn't mean you should buy it. You can't see if buyers are absorbing sellers, you can't see if large orders are crushing a bid, you can't see if large orders are getting pulled or added. You can't see volume!
cowboys suck...
  • #702
  • Apr 30, 2017 5:56pm Apr 30, 2017 5:56pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} cowboys suck...

My younger days....... beats any ride with the NFP report


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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #703
  • Apr 30, 2017 5:57pm Apr 30, 2017 5:57pm
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Sure, people add and pull orders all the time. The question should be how will you use that to your advantage? You may have a strong idea where people are going to be buying or selling, but you can't see it. Just because a candle closes green doesn't mean you should buy it. You can't see if buyers are absorbing sellers, you can't see if large orders are crushing a bid, you can't see if large orders are getting pulled or added. You can't see volume!
Without much exception I buy after red candles and sell after green ones. The uglier and stronger the move, the better. You can't see it with the volume either apparently if they add and pull all the time. They've got it down how to confuse people looking at the depth of market tool otherwise it'd be easier to make money on futures and stocks than forex. I bet the failure rate for active traders is similar, however.
  • #704
  • Apr 30, 2017 6:09pm Apr 30, 2017 6:09pm
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Might as well chime in here. Super little pod cast about Anne Duke. First woman to win World Series of Poker. The mindset of a professional gambler not much different than that of a professional trader. All about odds and risk. http://player.themoth.org/#/?actionT...AY&storyId=971
A intelligent man! I listened to the Moth radio hour for a long time when I was able.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #705
  • Apr 30, 2017 6:28pm Apr 30, 2017 6:28pm
Quoting FairTrader
{quote} https://youtu.be/PPuYheUX3No
Think about this for a second. This is not plausible. Now I don't use charts alone, I am looking at order flow and fundamentals as well. But even if I only looked at the charts, there are unlimited number of chart combinations possible. You can win and lose money in an infinite number of ways.

Trust me, I have traded for 10 years now, and I now know without a shred of doubt that n o one is out to get me. No one gives a fcuk about me. You are your biggest enemy. There is no conspiracy theory out there when it comes to trading successfully.
Its all in the mind.
  • #706
  • Apr 30, 2017 6:36pm Apr 30, 2017 6:36pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Without much exception I buy after red candles and sell after green ones. The uglier and stronger the move, the better. You can't see it with the volume either apparently if they add and pull all the time. They've got it down how to confuse people looking at the depth of market tool otherwise it'd be easier to make money on futures and stocks than forex. I bet the failure rate for active traders is similar, however.
You are making assumptions. They can add/pull all they want... I can still see what hits the bid and lifts the offer. You are buying/selling blind and hoping for a reversal off of a S/R line.

Nothing is easy about trading no matter how you trade. The majority want to look at charts because it's more appealing than staring at a DOM. The failure rate study's are pointless unless you have all the variables... You don't know if Trader A has been trading for 1 month and funded his account with $100 and was trading moon cycles.
  • #707
  • Apr 30, 2017 6:36pm Apr 30, 2017 6:36pm
Quoting 5abi
{quote} Think about this for a second. This is not plausible. Now I don't use charts alone, I am looking at order flow and fundamentals as well. But even if I only looked at the charts, there are unlimited number of chart combinations possible. You can win and lose money in an infinite number of ways. Trust me, I have traded for 10 years now, and I now know without a shred of doubt that n o one is out to get me. No one gives a fcuk about me. You are your biggest enemy. There is no conspiracy theory out there when it comes to trading successfully....
so you don't trade spot forex then?
  • #708
  • Apr 30, 2017 6:39pm Apr 30, 2017 6:39pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} With respect, if you are asserting that the quote does have direct relevance to trading, then the burden of proof rests upon you to demonstrate how. Otherwise, anybody could make any statement that they wish, however seemingly bizarre or obscure -- for example, that significant levels on price charts can be calculated by a secret formula based on numbers mentioned in the Bible -- and we would by default be compelled to believe it to be true.
Your observation is legit if considered on the side of common thinking.
If someone is willing to understand what market really is and how to look at it, a shift of our mental paradigm is mandatory; the truth is not on charts but beyond them. I've quoted that sentence just to give a tip about the meaning of "think different".
Trading, as well as everything else and life, is just a mind game.

Don't seek for proves or demonstrations: they already are in front of you each time you observe price action on your charts; they are there eventhough you don't see them. Ask yourself questions and think out of the box.

If you prefer to ignore what I'm saying rather than investigating what I mean, well do it; it is not my problem, I do not whish to be right, I don't mind.
  • #709
  • Apr 30, 2017 6:39pm Apr 30, 2017 6:39pm
Quoting yonnie
{quote} so you don't trade spot forex then?
I was introduced to the futures about 8 months ago, I mostly trade futures now on the CME and CBOT.
Its all in the mind.
  • #710
  • Apr 30, 2017 6:44pm Apr 30, 2017 6:44pm
Quoting 5abi
{quote} I was introduced to the futures about 8 months ago, I mostly trade futures now on the CME and CBOT.
ah well that figures; I`m sure they`re talking about forex brokers here.
  • #711
  • Apr 30, 2017 7:04pm Apr 30, 2017 7:04pm
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} You are making assumptions. They can add/pull all they want... I can still see what hits the bid and lifts the offer. You are buying/selling blind and hoping for a reversal off of a S/R line. Nothing is easy about trading no matter how you trade. The majority want to look at charts because it's more appealing than staring at a DOM. The failure rate study's are pointless unless you have all the variables... You don't know if Trader A has been trading for 1 month and funded his account with $100 and was trading moon cycles.
Friend you are guilty of the same - I do not "hope for a reversal off of a S/R line". I am much more involved with the market mechanics than that and am very attentive to what price action is telling me about the strength of buyers and sellers at key areas. I agree, nothing is easy about it. Anyway I think it probably comes down to the fact that you are used to DOM and have gleaned good information from it that an untrained eye like mine might not, while perhaps I have had more time staring at the charts, not because DOM is unappealing but because I feel I can get the same type of information from it.
  • #712
  • Apr 30, 2017 7:07pm Apr 30, 2017 7:07pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} cowboys suck...
Agree.....................and spurs have no chance.
  • #713
  • Apr 30, 2017 7:21pm Apr 30, 2017 7:21pm
Quoting yonnie
{quote} ah well that figures; I`m sure they`re talking about forex brokers here.
My comments were in response to a video the guy posted. Not directed at any broker or any market in particular.
Its all in the mind.
  • #714
  • Apr 30, 2017 7:24pm Apr 30, 2017 7:24pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Yep. the data across retail broker is indeed different across all timeframe and contributes to inconsistencies in our retail strategies. Someone shares a strategy with great results on their platform and attracts suckers to try it out.. some work some won't and the cycle continues. I am aware of all that. What I am really trying to uncover is whether there is any 'hidden secret' (for lack of a better term) between the retail GMT offsets and the platforms that the big boys use i.e. EBS, Reuters, LQs, Prime Brokers etc. If Broker server times...
The secret is their pockets. I know you have heard of strong bulls and weak bulls, strong bears and weak bears. Strong players can place a bet and wait. Weak players have to use stops. That is the key to brokers, they can take the other side and hedge your position and simply wait. The retailer will eventually give up if they are over leveraged and feel too much pain. Time is on the side of the strong bull or bear.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #715
  • Apr 30, 2017 8:06pm Apr 30, 2017 8:06pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Friend you are guilty of the same - I do not "hope for a reversal off of a S/R line". I am much more involved with the market mechanics than that and am very attentive to what price action is telling me about the strength of buyers and sellers at key areas. I agree, nothing is easy about it. Anyway I think it probably comes down to the fact that you are used to DOM and have gleaned good information from it that an untrained eye like mine might not, while perhaps I have had more time staring at the charts, not because DOM is unappealing but...
The reason why I think you are buying/selling blind is because you cannot see the things displayed in this video. A candle/swing/past price action does not show you this information.

Inserted Video
  • #716
  • Apr 30, 2017 8:32pm Apr 30, 2017 8:32pm
The markets are close to random, edges need to be squeezed.
Special one
  • #717
  • Apr 30, 2017 9:03pm Apr 30, 2017 9:03pm
Quoting UJgod
I think you are on the right track but still over complicating things... in complexity, find simplicity! Number one, look at the wicks, THE WICKS DO NOT LIE, there's always a story within... also draw your zones as it will guide you. Every morning I wake up 2 hours before NY, top down analysis from highest time frame to lowest looking for filling wicks, breakouts, reversals at zones. i aim for 10 pips (standard) with 1:1 risk reward, usually 5% of my account.. I smash the trade, then go enjoy my day because I DO NOT need to sit behind the charts...
Yup, I totally get that. UJgod, you are doing the right thing. Doubling your account every month, will very quickly lead to financial independence, but its a matter of having the discipline to stick to the plan of 10 / 20 pips a day. and Patience.
And also I agree 100% -- trading is about freedom (and quality of life), not sitting in front of a computer screen all day!
Good Post !
Let the Market come to you
  • #718
  • Apr 30, 2017 9:44pm Apr 30, 2017 9:44pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Supply is useful if you scalp. Not all traders scalp. The more skillful you become as a trader the less trades you make.
IMO watching orderflow is useful if you daytrade (meaning you are flat at the end of the day no matter what). If you are swing trading and holding for weeks/months, then I can agree it's not as useful.
  • #719
  • Apr 30, 2017 10:23pm Apr 30, 2017 10:23pm
Quoting strongtrader
Your observation is legit if considered on the side of common thinking.
If a scholar wants to be taken seriously by their peers in the academic/scientific community, then when they put forward a theory, they cite prior sources, and present research and evidence to support their theory.

Quote
I've quoted that sentence just to give a tip about the meaning of "think different"....... even though you don't see them.
To suggest that I should think differently assumes that you know how I'm currently thinking...... and what I'm currently seeing.

Quote
If you prefer to ignore what I'm saying rather than investigating what I mean, well do it
I'm always keen to learn, but you would need to give me something tangible to investigate, and also demonstrate that it's worth investigating.
  • #720
  • Apr 30, 2017 10:37pm Apr 30, 2017 10:37pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} If a scholar wants to be taken seriously by their peers in the academic/scientific community, then when they put forward a theory, they cite prior sources, and present research and evidence to support their theory. {quote} To suggest that I should think differently assumes that you know how I'm currently thinking...... and what I'm currently seeing. {quote} I'm always keen to learn, but you would need to give me something tangible to investigate, and also demonstrate that it's worth investigating.
The quote, actually, had EVERYTHING to do with trading. If you cannot understand how then the problem is with your thinking. Not his quote.

The answer is simple; You aren't taking him seriously because you are not yet his peer.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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