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5 years and still no strategy

  • #681
  • Apr 30, 2017 8:15am Apr 30, 2017 8:15am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} This is how. for all intent and purposes; The financial markets are random. You let your "random walk" through the price series change the odds in your favor for every trade - bet (i.e opening a door) A trade is like a opening a door in the Monty Hall problem. The trade (bet) is adjusted according to the current result. Here is the result of a model based on this principle. Random entries, no stop loss ==> Notice the relatively long but upward series of flat areas and the sudden bursts ... (that's a car behind "door number 3!" (: ) {image}...
From Kanzler's post thingy at the bottom -> Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.

Theres more to it than meets the eye, but overall yes. Also i would state that any given trade is never 50/50, in fact i lean more towards 33/66 depending on how one structures their boundaries. But this is just my own thoughts, irrelevant of what Monty may think
  • #682
  • Edited 9:14am Apr 30, 2017 8:53am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting calebfx
{quote} I was a fan but your post my friend is grossly unrealistic..how can you reject an ea making 50% growth for the last 10 years, are you kidding me? Lol how much do you think Goldman Sachs makes? I think you my friend love to toil just like farmers that adamantly refused tractors and continued to use hoes and pitchforks
Two words: Curve fitting. They always add those disclaimers on financial ads talking about how past performance does not guarantee future results. EAs are almost never based on something that works all the time. Could have been a slight averaged bull or bear market for the last 10 years and the EA was programmed to take heavy advantage of it. Could have ranged most of the time, EA took advantage of that. Basic conditions can create some pretty amazing looking pictures in the mirror. Going forward? Crapshoot. I'd rather not be relying on some EA with an unknown source strategy instead of learning market mechanics myself to be self sufficient the rest of my life. I'm not in this to make a quick buck, I want long term financial independence.
  • #683
  • Apr 30, 2017 10:08am Apr 30, 2017 10:08am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Congrats Ming, you really have figured it out.
I'd go as far as to say that its almost impossible to figure this stuff out without some serious research into the possibility that financial markets are random (which they most certainly are most of the time), and the implications that has on strategy design.

Ironically, most "traders" that I know just dont seam to get it, and ironically most of the "gamblers" that I'm aquainted with understand this stuff perfectly
  • #684
  • Edited 1:02pm Apr 30, 2017 10:32am | Edited 1:02pm
Soo I want to share my crazy story.. while I practice some English lol

it's going to be long, you have been warned.

I started when I was 17 trading stocks, just for fun. I didn't lose and didn't win.. lost interest after a while.

Around 7-8 years ago I heard a friend of mine talking about Forex and how cool this market is etc. etc. so I decided to give it a try as the guy was smart and I trusted him. I did a bit of research, came across the various strategies on the web.. after a bit of backtesting I decided that EW was the only good strategy... oh and fibonacci!

I signed up with the first broker that I found on google and made my first deposit... around $150.

coming from the stock market I didn't know much about leverage so I accidentally overleveraged, making me triple the account overnight, but I knew I had been lucky

Obviously I still had a lot to learn about position sizing so after a week or so I blew the account..

I took a break to study MM, going deeper into those strategies... well, I ended up completely disappointed.. the only possibility I had was to implement a
martingale variant so I did. it worked well.. yet I was still searching for something more consistent. as I found some decent trend following strategies I realized that I could only make 5% month , so I started practicing with the "house money", thinking about becoming an account manager.. hell I was serious about this business lol

So I deposited around 5k to make the PAMM look good... blew the account one month, again

I took a long break during which I programmed few EAs.. thinking I could get rid of my "weaknesses" by trading automatically.. again more frustration
I lost more money by trading automatically as I couldn'refrain myself from intervening.. and lose, and lose, and lose.. 4-5k overall.. until I finally understood the power of compounding and of myself.
Now I'm happy
  • #685
  • Apr 30, 2017 11:16am Apr 30, 2017 11:16am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} This is how. for all intent and purposes; The financial markets are random. You let your "random walk" through the price series change the odds in your favor for every trade - bet (i.e opening a door) A trade is like a opening a door in the Monty Hall problem. The trade (bet) is adjusted according to the current result. Here is the result of a model based on this principle. Random entries, no stop loss ==> Notice the relatively long but upward series of flat areas and the sudden bursts ... (that's a car behind "door number 3!" (: ) {image}...
I always wondered what would be the results of an EA with a very high R:R and random entries over a long period of years.

The EA could be something along the lines of SL = 20% of ATR ; TP = 100% ATR with random entries and moving stop to BE after 40% of ATR in profits.

If the idea works it could be optimized with better entry criterias and maybe multiple entries / exits.
  • #686
  • Apr 30, 2017 1:24pm Apr 30, 2017 1:24pm
Quoting VEEFX
Hi Guys, Does anyone know what time in UTC does the daily candle close on EBS and Reuters Dealing 3000 platforms? I am doing some research on the varying retail broker's GMT Offset , server times versus the ones used by these two platforms. I feel this is a significant field for us to understand why the failure rate is so high among retail traders. I have always wanted to see if there is any connection between the two. Has anyone done any research or point me to research material available? I also feel Daylight savings time has some connection with...
I'm of the opinion that the candle shapes or patterns themselves are overemphasized via threads like j16. What price did is more important than if you form a buob pb or any other candle shape. I imagine difference is due to the fact tht forex is decentralized with liqidity providers quoting different prices which change dramatically as market thins after ny Friday.
  • #687
  • Apr 30, 2017 2:35pm Apr 30, 2017 2:35pm
Quoting calebfx
{quote} I was a fan but your post my friend is grossly unrealistic..how can you reject an ea making 50% growth for the last 10 years, are you kidding me? Lol how much do you think Goldman Sachs makes? I think you my friend love to toil just like farmers that adamantly refused tractors and continued to use hoes and pitchforks
Kanzler is correct. It isn't about the money. I, too, would reject the 50% EA. I'd rather learn how it worked and figure out how to get 60%. In the end the money is just a tool and it will always be given back in one way or another. Make sure you understand how you intend to use the tool. If you're embarking on this journey to get rich then you're destined to die poor.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #688
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:08pm Apr 30, 2017 3:08pm
Quoting depthflow
{quote} trade futures not forex and watch a dom for 2 years then you may have a chance
Finally someone who gets it.

Why would any retail trader want to trade a market that doesn't show true volume? Instant disadvantage.
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  • #689
  • Edited 3:49pm Apr 30, 2017 3:12pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting strongtrader
What does this have to do with trading?
With respect, if you are asserting that the quote does have direct relevance to trading, then the burden of proof rests upon you to demonstrate how.

Otherwise, anybody could make any statement that they wish, however seemingly bizarre or obscure -- for example, that significant levels on price charts can be calculated by a secret formula based on numbers mentioned in the Bible -- and we would by default be compelled to believe it to be true.
  • #690
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:16pm Apr 30, 2017 3:16pm
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Finally someone who gets it. Why would any retail trader want to trade a market that doesn't show true volume? Instant disadvantage. {image}
Disadvantage, but you also don't need $25,000 in deposits to trade and you can also avoid a lot of regulatory b******* and do this anywhere in the world if you choose to no being held hostage by the US government.

Say ex wife sticks it to you in lifetime alimony but youre a chicago futures trader. Good luck getting out of that.
  • #691
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:25pm Apr 30, 2017 3:25pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} This is how. for all intent and purposes; The financial markets are random. You let your "random walk" through the price series change the odds in your favor for every trade - bet (i.e opening a door) A trade is like a opening a door in the Monty Hall problem. The trade (bet) is adjusted according to the current result. Here is the result of a model based on this principle. Random entries, no stop loss ==> Notice the relatively long but upward series of flat areas and the sudden bursts ... (that's a car behind "door number 3!" (: ) {image}...
If the markets would be random, arbitrage and hft front running firms (Citadel) would not be profitable year after year and pay a small fine from their profits.
  • #692
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:50pm Apr 30, 2017 3:50pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Disadvantage, but you also don't need $25,000 in deposits to trade and you can also avoid a lot of regulatory b******* and do this anywhere in the world if you choose to no being held hostage by the US government. Say ex wife sticks it to you in lifetime alimony but youre a chicago futures trader. Good luck getting out of that.
Who says you need $25k? You must be thinking stocks? You can open a Futures account with $500 (not recommended). Lol sounds like you may have more issues than trying to be a profitable trader.
  • #693
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:51pm Apr 30, 2017 3:51pm
Quoting HeyYou
I lost more money by trading automatically as I couldn'refrain myself from intervening.. and lose, and lose, and lose.. 4-5k overall.. until I finally understood the power of compounding and of myself. Now I'm happy
Thanks for telling your story.
But I didn't catch how compounding turned you out from looser to...winner...
Don't give up on your dreams. Keep sleeping.
  • #694
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:53pm Apr 30, 2017 3:53pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Should probably figure out the definition of wisdom then... lol.
you may have knowledge but not experience

you may have knowledge AND wisdom BUT NOT experience

you may have experience but not wisdom

you may have knowledge but not wisdom

confucius was a bright man with a lot of wisdom, maybe THE ONE in regards to wisdom, but didnt have knowledge or experience in regards to technical forex

QED
The risk is what gives value to an investment.
  • #695
  • Apr 30, 2017 4:14pm Apr 30, 2017 4:14pm
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Who says you need $25k? You must be thinking stocks? You can open a Futures account with $500 (not recommended). Lol sounds like you may have more issues than trying to be a profitable trader.

I just like to be prepared and yes I was thinking about stocks pardon my ignorance on the margin requirements for futures lol
  • #696
  • Apr 30, 2017 5:15pm Apr 30, 2017 5:15pm
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  • #697
  • Apr 30, 2017 5:26pm Apr 30, 2017 5:26pm
Quoting lKeithStone
{image}
That's helpful I'm sure. But as someone who has never used the volume data before, isn't it true that people play games and add and pull orders all the time? I already have a strong idea of where people are going to be buying or selling without that tool so it seems more of a headache than it's worth.
  • #698
  • Apr 30, 2017 5:36pm Apr 30, 2017 5:36pm
Quoting Razzle
{quote} I'd go as far as to say that its almost impossible to figure this stuff out without some serious research into the possibility that financial markets are random (which they most certainly are most of the time), and the implications that has on strategy design. Ironically, most "traders" that I know just dont seam to get it, and ironically most of the "gamblers" that I'm aquainted with understand this stuff perfectly
There are no traders Razzle, if you put your money in anything other than a bank or US TBonds, you are gambling. It's the nature of the game. If traders accepted that they are gamblers a lot more of them would be a lot richer today.

Quoting VEEFX
Hi Guys, Does anyone know what time in UTC does the daily candle close on EBS and Reuters Dealing 3000 platforms? I am doing some research on the varying retail broker's GMT Offset , server times versus the ones used by these two platforms. I feel this is a significant field for us to understand why the failure rate is so high among retail traders. I have always wanted to see if there is any connection between the two. Has anyone done any research or point me to research material available? I also feel Daylight savings time has some connection with...
Time frames are random below weekly charts. The failure rate is so high among retailers is because they think that the H1 chart they are looking at means something. All you have to do is compare an H1 chart from the UK to an H1 chart in NZ and then you will know all this TA stuff, is just that, stuff. Does volatility matter? Sure it does, but only if you like placing stops. The thing about stops is that your broker knows where they are, and if they are close.........
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #699
  • Apr 30, 2017 5:44pm Apr 30, 2017 5:44pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} There are no traders Razzle, if you put your money in anything other than a bank or US TBonds, you are gambling. It's the nature of the game. If traders accepted that they are gamblers a lot more of them would be a lot richer today.
Might as well chime in here. Super little pod cast about Anne Duke. First woman to win World Series of Poker. The mindset of a professional gambler not much different than that of a professional trader. All about odds and risk.

http://player.themoth.org/#/?actionT...AY&storyId=971
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #700
  • Apr 30, 2017 5:45pm Apr 30, 2017 5:45pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} That's helpful I'm sure. But as someone who has never used the volume data before, isn't it true that people play games and add and pull orders all the time? I already have a strong idea of where people are going to be buying or selling without that tool so it seems more of a headache than it's worth.
Sure, people add and pull orders all the time. The question should be how will you use that to your advantage?

You may have a strong idea where people are going to be buying or selling, but you can't see it. Just because a candle closes green doesn't mean you should buy it. You can't see if buyers are absorbing sellers, you can't see if large orders are crushing a bid, you can't see if large orders are getting pulled or added. You can't see volume!
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