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5 years and still no strategy

  • #641
  • Edited 6:03am Apr 29, 2017 5:48am | Edited 6:03am
When I saw the pi symbol persisting in the bottom right of Pipalicious' linked video, my first thought was "I wonder where CrucialPoint is hiding these days?"
Quoting CrucialPoint
There is a hidden matrix that connects everything in life.
Hidden matrix? Seems to me that you're teetering on the brink of metaphysics, a large part of which can't be proven objectively. For example, a theology professor might assert that your "hidden matrix" can best be explained by a creator/creation model. But do you really want to take the discussion down that kind of rabbit hole?
Quote
Of all the EA/robots you have coded, did any of them accounted for variable change?
Because.... shhhhh, its a secret!
Assuming we're talking about the same thing, virtually every one of my EAs allows for "variable change" in one way or another. In fact, it's one of their key themes. How does it operate? Of course it's a closely kept secret! And one of the great things about secrets is that they're never open to peer review, and the possibility of falsification.
Quote
I'm sure you've played catch with your kids......
Sure, all of this is self-evident. People successfully use judgement to perform physical tasks -- even subconsciously, like crossing the road, for example -- without performing formal mathematical calculations.
  • #642
  • Apr 29, 2017 6:53am Apr 29, 2017 6:53am
the only EAs that i think are useful right now are those with an interface that help with manual trading , "buy / sell / close all/ BE / set SL TP / show some stats".

i trust in automated systems as much as i do self driving cars. cool idea but still prone to accidents.

with the majority of retail traders looking for an EA that will do all their work for them.. i think that even with all the ingenuity of retail coders there still is a need for manual identification or input of certain variables for the EA. unless they integrate machine learning.

simple example: there is a 50/50 chance that in a strong uptrend that price will go up 10 pips before it ever goes -5 pips. so, set TP +10 / SL -5 pips and with a 50/50 probability, for every 2 trades you'll come out +5 pips gain. but you still need to identify the trend for the EA.

sure, people come up with their own "high frequency trading" EAs, but that's still slow compared to HFT systems seen in Flash Boys. or coders like to use latency arbitrage or any number of ways to game their broker and the system..

personally, i've seen what an EA supposedly written by "an x number of Masters students and an x number of PhD students" can do... it didn't do much at all.

the problem is, IBs want a system that can sell, that they can sell to their customers. and customers don't care about learning about the market and how it works, they just want to use an EA to earn some cash on their investment.

now a Broker's own automated trading system basically pools that "big data" from their own clients and can trade alongside the most successful clients, or trade against the majority of losing clients.

there's no harm in trying to code your own mql4 EA and back test it with 99% accurate tick data, but still need to account for live slippage and variable spreads.

so much work and so little to show for it... i trust people out there have successful systems that work well. just that most aren't.
don't fall for every shiny object out there that is packaged and marketed well.

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  • #643
  • Edited 8:29am Apr 29, 2017 7:27am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting hanover
I wonder where CrucialPoint is hiding these days?
Obviously, not in the forums
(man I miss the 'rolling on the floor' emoticon)

Quoting hanover
Hidden matrix? Seems to me that you're teetering on the brink of metaphysics

"As a man who has devoted his whole life to the most clear headed science,

to the study of matter, I can tell you as a result of my research about atoms this much:

There is no matter as such. All matter originates and exists only by virtue of a force

which brings the particle of an atom to vibration

and holds this most minute solar system of the atom together.

We must assume behind this force the existence of a conscious and intelligent mind.

This mind is the matrix of all matter. "


~Max Planck

(Nobel Prize for Physics)



"There seems to be an unseen force,

emanating from the wire."


~Michael Faraday

(Nobel Prize for Physics)


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Peace,
CrucialPoint
  • #644
  • Apr 29, 2017 8:02am Apr 29, 2017 8:02am
Quoting CrucialPoint
Let Me Throw You a Ball {image} {quote} There is a hidden matrix that connects everything in life. Even ancient tribesmen, with no scientific background, through pseudo-divine-intelligence, understood the connection between man and nature/life. Every discovery and scientific breakthrough came from nature/life. Every answer to a problem can be found in nature/life. Everything is connected... Its a matter of realizing this connection in able to free our boxed mentality. {quote} Mr.Hanover... Of all the EA/robots you have coded, did any...
A lot of wisdom and knowledge here, which is not understandable by any "educated" mind.

Quoting hanover
Hidden matrix? Seems to me that you're teetering on the brink of metaphysics

There are a lot of things we cannot even perceive but they do exist: the only reason we cannot explain or demonstrate are the big limits of rational thinking.
Just one example: whether you have kids, do you love your kids? I'm sure your answer is yes and no one would doubt it, but could you demonstrate your love using scientific language, so that mahs? No, you can't
  • #645
  • Apr 29, 2017 8:16am Apr 29, 2017 8:16am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} ... There are a lot of things we cannot even perceive but they do exist: the only reason we cannot explain or demonstrate are the big limits of rational thinking. Just one example: whether you have kids, do you love your kids? I'm sure your answer is yes and no one would doubt it, but could you demonstrate your love using scientific language, so that mahs? No, you can't ...
((sqrt(cos(x))*cos(500*x)+sqrt(abs(x))-0.4)*(4-x*x)^0.1

Yes we can!
The funniest, is that nobody takes me seriously.
  • #646
  • Apr 29, 2017 8:16am Apr 29, 2017 8:16am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} A lot of wisdom and knowledge here, which is not understandable by any "educated" mind. Quoting hanover Hidden matrix? Seems to me that you're teetering on the brink of metaphysics There are a lot of things we cannot even perceive but they do exist: the only reason we cannot explain or demonstrate are the big limits of rational thinking. Just one example: whether you have kids, do you love your kids? I'm sure your answer is yes and no one would doubt it, but could...
Shall I present you with the formula for Oxytocin or would you prefer a neural-map?
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #647
  • Apr 29, 2017 8:21am Apr 29, 2017 8:21am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Shall I present you with the formula for Oxytocin or would you prefer a neural-map?
You can calculate di effects, not love as itself
  • #648
  • Apr 29, 2017 8:40am Apr 29, 2017 8:40am
It seems rather odd, somehow, that Taoism, the way of the Whole Man, the True Man, the Spirit Man (to use a few Taoist terms), is for the most part interpreted here in the West by the Scholarly Owl—by the Brain, the Academician, the dry-as-dust Absentminded Professor. Far from reflecting
the Taoist ideal of wholeness and independence, this incomplete and unbalanced creature divides all kinds of abstract things into little categories and compartments, while remaining rather helpless and disorganized in his daily life.

Rather than learn from Taoist teachers and from direct experience, he learns intellectually and indirectly, from books. And since he doesn't usually put Taoist principles into practice in an everyday sort of way, his explanations of them tend to leave out some rather important details, such as how they work and where you can apply them.

On top of that, it is very hard to find any of the spirit of Taoism in the lifeless writings of the humorless Academic Mortician, whose bleached-out Scholarly Dissertations contain no more of the character of Taoist wisdom than does the typical wax museum.

But that is the sort of thing we can expect from the Abstract Owl, the dried-up Western descendant of the Confucianist Dedicated Scholar, who, unlike
his Noble but rather Unimaginative ancestor, thinks he has some sort of monopoly on-

"What's that?" Pooh interrupted.
"What's what?" I asked.
"What you just said—the Confusionist, Desiccated Scholar."
"Well, let's see. The Confusionist, Desiccated Scholar is one who studies Knowledge for the sake of Knowledge, and who keeps what he learns to himself or to his own small group, writing pompous and pretentious papers that no one else can understand, rather than working for the enlightenment of others. How's that?"
  • #649
  • Apr 29, 2017 8:50am Apr 29, 2017 8:50am
I'm telling you guys, all my trades are right. It is the markets that are wrong.
  • #650
  • Edited 12:29pm Apr 29, 2017 9:45am | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} Obviously, not in the forums (man I miss the 'rolling on the floor' emoticon) {quote} "As a man who has devoted his whole life to the most clear headed science, to the study of matter, I can tell you as a result of my research about atoms this much: There is no matter as such. All matter originates and exists only by virtue of a force which brings the particle of an atom to vibration and holds this most minute solar system of the atom together. We must assume behind this force the existence of a conscious and intelligent mind. This...
So many great minds in one pic...damn
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #651
  • Apr 29, 2017 11:13am Apr 29, 2017 11:13am
When I read this I feel like your all high and I'm getting a 2nd hand high.
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #652
  • Apr 29, 2017 11:46am Apr 29, 2017 11:46am
Quoting CrucialPoint
I wonder how many robots you've written and other robots out there that don't account for variable change?
Many EAs are built to "Exit on opposite signal" or "Stop and reverse."
  • #653
  • Apr 29, 2017 12:35pm Apr 29, 2017 12:35pm
Quoting shiva
Many EAs are built to "Exit on opposite signal" or "Stop and reverse."
EXACTLY!!!
Seems pretty obvious that this approach doesn't work:

  1. Exiting on opposite signal
  2. or a general stop and reverse

So are you saying that many EAs are profitable?
These 2 approach are NOT accounting for variable change... these approach is merely a static exit.

From my old posts: "ANY system that takes every signal (to enter/exit the market) is a failed trading system"

  • #654
  • Apr 29, 2017 12:45pm Apr 29, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting FairTrader
{quote} ((sqrt(cos(x))*cos(500*x)+sqrt(abs(x))-0.4)*(4-x*x)^0.1 Yes we can!
He is right!
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  • #655
  • Apr 29, 2017 1:56pm Apr 29, 2017 1:56pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} EXACTLY!!! Seems pretty obvious that this approach doesn't work: Exiting on opposite signal or a general stop and reverse So are you saying that many EAs are profitable? These 2 approach are NOT accounting for variable change... these approach is merely a static exit. From my old posts: "ANY system that takes every signal (to enter/exit the market) is a failed trading system"
Agree that taking every signal leads to a system failure. Perhaps a wait-n-watch attitude can be built in to an automated system?
  • #656
  • Apr 29, 2017 1:58pm Apr 29, 2017 1:58pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
trade futures not forex and watch a dom for 2 years then you may have a chance
  • #657
  • Apr 29, 2017 2:08pm Apr 29, 2017 2:08pm
Quoting shiva
{quote} Agree that taking every signal leads to a system failure. Perhaps a wait-n-watch attitude can be built in to an automated system?

I'm currently in the process of having and environment identifier built into my ea , it was most certainly not easy to put together. just have to wait and see if it works
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #658
  • Apr 29, 2017 2:12pm Apr 29, 2017 2:12pm
EAs are not the answer. People want to make money trading but they also want to be lazy. Trading is hard, time intensive work if you want to make bigger gains fast. You have to watch the charts and act quickly when opportunities arise. I find entry opportunities last no more than an hour for premium positions, and far more often than not appear for only 5 to 10 minutes or so before the opportunity is gone to get in with the least risk and highest reward potential. You have to watch price action. Watch it, watch it, watch it. If you're lazy and want a robot to trade for you with fantasies of bumming around on a beach all day, go do something else.
  • #659
  • Apr 29, 2017 2:24pm Apr 29, 2017 2:24pm
Quoting Kanzler
EAs are not the answer. People want to make money trading but they also want to be lazy. Trading is hard, time intensive work if you want to make bigger gains fast. You have to watch the charts and act quickly when opportunities arise. I find entry opportunities last no more than an hour for premium positions, and far more often than not appear for only 5 to 10 minutes or so before the opportunity is gone to get in with the least risk and highest reward potential. You have to watch price action. Watch it, watch it, watch it. If you're lazy and want...

whoa , i actually feel pretty insulted right now, not to disagree with you there are lazy people that want to rely on some elses ea,
but in this context your referring to us the ea developers, making an ea that's safe good and profitable is not easy it takes as much or more hours then trading and contains all the emotions of trading, stress , stubbornness, depression (in the process of making good eas you build loads of bad previous versions to get to the good one ). in some cases i would argue that making eas is even more difficult than trading, you have to know everything that a trader knows plus all the extra stuff you have to know as an ea developer!!
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #660
  • Apr 29, 2017 2:28pm Apr 29, 2017 2:28pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} "ANY system that takes every signal (to enter/exit the market) is a failed trading system" - 110% accurate statement especially on a single chart single timeframe. That is why automation of Supply/Demand, Support Resistance, pinbars and all the crappy strategies in between are just not profitable in the long run. With that said, I am on the journey (very close) to prove this theory to be wrong when signals are aligned on multipair, multi timeframes plus some universal market parameters. I also agree that no EA is ever successful without...

im getting loads of errors in that do you mind sharing the MTF_trend filter please?
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
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