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5 years and still no strategy

  • #621
  • Apr 28, 2017 6:30am Apr 28, 2017 6:30am
Quoting forexer801
{quote} to get of debt why don't the counties just print more money, easy peasy lemon squeezy
I used to think like that. It means there will be no debtor countries
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
  • #622
  • Apr 28, 2017 8:00am Apr 28, 2017 8:00am
Quoting Pipalicious
Price goes Up, Down, Sideways* *defined as a move that does not cover costs nor provides sufficient profit potential. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0 How do you apply this principle to the market to turn the odds in your favour?
Place a bet, say along the previous candle color. Following the principle, one should flip position (change the door) when the price is stalled (small candle body, i.e.the goat is shown). However this assumes a lot of things about the probabilities and conditions in the market that would be needed to be evaluated beforehand. For example, the "host" does not need to show the goat, also the opposite side candle (empty door) or a profit (the car) can be shown. It is not necessarily true that the goat occurs only on 33% of cases. There can be a correlation between the subsequent games. Etc, etc.

Cheers,
k
  • #623
  • Apr 28, 2017 8:40am Apr 28, 2017 8:40am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Place a bet, say along the previous candle color.
Since the thread has already gone to hell (with only a few reasonable and useful commentators, e.g. Calculus), I will just add that this has reminded me of the twoblink's "gravy train" principle, where he, apparently inspired by 19th century Mendel's inheritance experiments (!) derives a forex strategy (of presumably continuously betting against the Weak Currency/Strong Currency pair). Who knows, it might give somebody some ideas.

Cheers,
k
  • #624
  • Edited 4:22pm Apr 28, 2017 8:40am | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting forexer801
{quote} to get of debt why don't the counties just print more money, easy peasy lemon squeezy
that would be possible if countries had the power to print their own money but guess what, only private central banks have that power.
Governments borrow money from private central banks who have the monopoly on money creation.
Central banks are smart and lend money with interest to countries, so that after say for example 1 year, the money must be returned to the bank with additional interests. Now how can the state return more money than it had received if the private central bank is the solely allowed money creator? Simple, just borrow more money again to pay interests and borrow fresh money again for the economy within a country.
Repeat this over and over and that's your debt.
Once a government is not able to pay back the interests because of "financial crisis" just make a deal with the bank and trade some real value assets like islands, state properties and land to pay off that debt... Once again keep this going and someday the banks own everything and robbed a country without anyone noticing it. That's how you make robbery legal (powered by Federal Reserve Act 1913)
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #625
  • Apr 28, 2017 9:24am Apr 28, 2017 9:24am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} ...twoblink's "gravy train" principle, where he, apparently inspired by 19th century Mendel's inheritance experiments (!) derives a forex strategy (of presumably continuously betting against the Weak Currency/Strong Currency pair). Who knows, it might give somebody some ideas. Cheers, k
Aside from the obvious 1st hurdle of determining which is weak & strong, there's also the problem of changing strengths, where that which was determined to be weak becomes strong...if you get my drift. For me, the latter problem effectively negates the feasibility of a straight forward application of this principle, I envision twoblink also hit a brick wall with this one. The guy sure knows how to think and work like a scientist though. I hold him in high esteem.
  • #626
  • Edited 11:25am Apr 28, 2017 9:54am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting sinqua
{quote} Aside from the obvious 1st hurdle of determining which is weak & strong, there's also the problem of changing strengths, where that which was determined to be weak becomes strong...if you get my drift. For me, the latter problem effectively negates the feasibility of a straight forward application of this principle, I envision twoblink also hit a brick wall with this one. The guy sure knows how to think and work like a scientist though. I hold him in high esteem.
Agreed, he is clever and an out-of-the-box thinker.

Just wanted to say how I would approach this (if I didn't have enough of crazy theories of my own): I would use a trio of pairs which are bound by a triangular relationship, say E/J=E/U*U/J. From the three pairs' values, I would calculate the corresponding indices, for example E=sqrt(E/J*E/U) etc. Having these values for the previous bar close-open (so simply E[1]-E[2] or Sloman's ocean index ln(E[1]/E[2])), I would rank the three indices in terms of strength. Then I would bet against the Weakest/Strongest. I am not sure how that would work for M1 timeframe he was referring to, but could actually work for something reasonable like D1 or W1.

Cheers,
k

(edit: typo in the first formula)
  • #627
  • Apr 28, 2017 10:07am Apr 28, 2017 10:07am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} ...I would use a trio of pairs which are bound by a triangular relationship, say E/J=E/U*G/J. From the three pairs' values, I would calculate the corresponding indices, for example E=sqrt(E/J*E/U) etc. Having these values for the previous bar close-open (so simply E[1]-E[2] ...
Well being an engineer by profession I love concepts I can readily apply practically, this looks easy enough to do on excel, got a few ideas of mine I wouldn't bother to expose on this forum yet. If I do take it on, I'd be sure to send you the results. Cheers K.
  • #628
  • Apr 28, 2017 1:00pm Apr 28, 2017 1:00pm
Quoting sinqua
{quote}there's also the problem of changing strengths, where that which was determined to be weak becomes strong...if you get my drift. For me, the latter problem effectively negates the feasibility of a straight forward application of this principle, I envision twoblink also hit a brick wall with this one. The guy sure knows how to think and work like a scientist though. I hold him in high esteem.
You seem to have been exactly correct. I hacked together a quick EUR/JPY indicator to check the feasibility. The simplest strategy on the D1 next candle results in small profit (ignoring the spreads). But certainly the probabilities are far from 66%:33%.
To be frank, however, TB probably meant betting against the recessive pair to imply placing a stop loss at the bottom of the candle and letting trade run more than one candle. For this one needs an EA.

k

Attached Image
  • #629
  • Apr 28, 2017 1:05pm Apr 28, 2017 1:05pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} The jackpot is hit when all your open positions are aligned with the current strength.
I know exactly what you mean.

Anyway, this was just a "blue moon" suggestion, seeing that we started off with Monty Hall.
Cheers,
k
  • #630
  • Apr 28, 2017 1:21pm Apr 28, 2017 1:21pm
it depends on much more than just a door opening and you getting what you see.

i'm pretty sure the market is a door that slowly opens and as you glimpse what is behind the door you can make a decision based on what you see.

do you see something furry? it might be a goat
do you see something red? it might be a car

it depends on much more than just a door opening and you getting what you see.
it's not just Buy only or Sell only.

I can throw in a buy and sell order at the same time, the market moves up 5 pips and my buy order is in profit, then price goes down 15 pips and it turns out my sell is correct.

so its not just 50/50 probability of being right. there's also a other factors. lot size, time..

we could have two traders go in the same Buy order, but one comes out with a profit and the other takes a loss.

or look at the upcoming french elections deciding where the Euro goes.. Le Pen and Macron are standing behind 2 doors out of three. you say Macron is behind door one. the host opens door two to show a goat. do you switch doors? what's the probability now?

i guess it's not possible to choose the door with the goat on the first try or the host would have no other doors to open.
  • #631
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:07pm Apr 28, 2017 2:07pm
Quoting juriFX
{quote} that would be possible if countries had the power to print their own money but guess what, only private central banks have that power. Governments borrow money from private central banks who have the monopoly on money creation. Central banks are smart and borrow money with interest to countries, so that after say for example 1 year, the money must be returned to the bank with an additional interest. Now how can the state return more money than it had received if the private central bank is the solely allowed to create money? Simple, just...
well explained man, but the alternative is a dictatorship.,,
  • #632
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:47pm Apr 28, 2017 2:47pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} I hacked together a quick EUR/JPY indicator to check the feasibility. The simplest strategy on the D1 next candle results in small profit...TB probably meant betting against the recessive pair to imply placing a stop loss at the bottom of the candle and letting trade run more than one candle...

That was quick

Yes he did emphasize the betting against part as always more research is needed though VEEFX has shed more light on the matter.
  • #633
  • Apr 28, 2017 2:52pm Apr 28, 2017 2:52pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I have high respect for twoblink as well. But he is too much of a math guru for my level of understanding. I loved reading his pascal triangle sequencing theory (hockey stick is what he referred to i think) I like to apply math on simplest, granular..
You, considering his ways complex and me, considering your ways complex pretty much sums up my level of granularity
  • #634
  • Apr 28, 2017 3:27pm Apr 28, 2017 3:27pm
Quoting freakout
5 years and still no strategy
Only 7 more years to go.
  • #635
  • Apr 28, 2017 3:56pm Apr 28, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} For this one needs an EA. k {image}
Anyway, since today my holidays started, I had some time to code. If somebody wants, here is something to play with. The (crude, but according to specs in above posts) code works only on EURJPY.
Cheers,
k

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 gravy_train_ej.mq4   2 KB | 437 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 gravy_train_ea.mq4   3 KB | 435 downloads
  • #636
  • Apr 28, 2017 5:17pm Apr 28, 2017 5:17pm
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} Sometimes it can get out of control and create WWII or starvation Not that this has ever bothered the bankers {image} {image}
Pretty soon they'll have to start using scientific notation.
  • #637
  • Apr 29, 2017 2:27am Apr 29, 2017 2:27am
Quoting Pipalicious
How do you apply this principle to the market to turn the odds in your favour?
Call me stupid, but I can't see any obvious connection. Monty Hall is purely an exercise in probability math (you double your expectancy by changing your original decision); whereas market probabilities are fuzzy at best, as the retail trader is always operating with less than complete information.
  • #638
  • Apr 29, 2017 4:09am Apr 29, 2017 4:09am
Quoting juriFX
{quote} that would be possible if countries had the power to print their own money but guess what, only private central banks have that power. Governments borrow money from private central banks who have the monopoly on money creation. Central banks are smart and lend money with interest to countries, so that after say for example 1 year, the money must be returned to the bank with additional interests. Now how can the state return more money than it had received if the private central bank is the solely allowed money creator? Simple, just borrow...
i feel like more people then i thought would take that seriously, especially being fx traders we know it can't happen, haha

although i do agree that the whole system is fucked up every dollar a central bank (federal reserve) gives out the CB wants $X for every one they give , leading to an economic structure that's always falling over its self.

the only way of avoiding this is by having state-run printers and pulling the currency from the FX markets so only the state controls the rates, few countries have already done this .
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #639
  • Edited 4:32am Apr 29, 2017 4:19am | Edited 4:32am
Let Me Throw You a Ball
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: catch.jpg Size: 24 KB

Quoting hanover
Call me stupid, but I can't see any obvious connection.
There is a hidden matrix that connects everything in life.
Even ancient tribesmen, with no scientific background, through pseudo-divine-intelligence, understood the connection between man and nature/life.
Every discovery and scientific breakthrough came from nature/life.
Every answer to a problem can be found in nature/life.
Everything is connected... Its a matter of realizing this connection in able to free our boxed mentality.
Quoting hanover
Monty Hall is purely an exercise in probability math (you double your expectancy by changing your original decision); whereas market probabilities are fuzzy at best,
Mr.Hanover...
Of all the EA/robots you have coded, did any of them accounted for variable change?

Example:
After the Robot identified a setup and entered BUY with a 100pip profit target (or any form of target) and 20pip stop loss (or any form of exit).
And then the Robot at 50pip mark, identified another setup and entered SELL.
I'm sure you're very well versed in the mathematics of hedging and I don't need to educate you in that department.
Now, that's been staring at your face all these years. Nobody bothered to tell you... you know why?
Because.... shhhhh, its a secret!

I wonder how many robots you've written and other robots out there that don't account for variable change?
(don't answer that question, its a rhetorical question

Quoting hanover
as the retail trader is always operating with less than complete information.
I'm sure you've played catch with your kids. You threw them a ball and watched them catching the ball.

You know...
Its very interesting... that the human mind (your kids) was able to catch the ball.
I mean, there were no computation of trajectory, angle degree of flight,
distance of the ball, speed and gravity, wind resistance or weight of the ball,
strength and momentum of the throw... Yet despite all of these incomplete information...
Your kid was able to catch the ball.

For those people who follow my posts, regarding the cheetah not predicting the future,
yet still making the cheetah a very effective hunting machine, and so does catching a ball.
When the ball moves to the left, we go left. When the ball goes to the right, we go right.
And WALA!!! we caught the ball.


Peace,
CrucialPoint
  • #640
  • Apr 29, 2017 4:49am Apr 29, 2017 4:49am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I look at them every mornig when I wake up lol, just to remind me how crazy this world is. {image}
No no, world is not crazy, people are
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