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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #65,701
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:15am Apr 25, 2017 11:15am
Quoting PatienceFx
do i rush into a short trap or wait now for a decent trigger and have a better RR , lets toss {image}
I would wait for now. There seems to be some orders around 111.7 which should still be there when price reaches it. I'd watch for price action when it arrives for a reversal.
  • #65,702
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:35am Apr 25, 2017 11:35am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I would wait for now. There seems to be some orders around 111.7 which should still be there when price reaches it. I'd watch for price action when it arrives for a reversal.
that is some way to go .. will you be buying low in the meantime or just sitting and watching that till then ?
Trade
  • #65,703
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:49am Apr 25, 2017 11:49am
Quoting Arnoud
{quote} that is some way to go .. will you be buying low in the meantime or just sitting and watching that till then ?
I'm flat. There are some pullback positions you could buy into but I'm trying to be extra picky about my entries now so I can convince myself I know what I'm doing. My pattern of trading has been until recently 1) Make good decisions and wait for high probability setups, 2) Make money, 3) Become overconfident and pick iffy setups 4) Lose it all stabbing randomly at iffy setups. Would rather just repeat steps 1 and 2...
  • #65,704
  • Apr 25, 2017 11:57am Apr 25, 2017 11:57am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I'm flat. There are some pullback positions you could buy into but I'm trying to be extra picky about my entries now so I can convince myself I know what I'm doing. My pattern of trading has been until recently 1) Make good decisions and wait for high probability setups, 2) Make money, 3) Become overconfident and pick iffy setups 4) Lose it all stabbing randomly at iffy setups. Would rather just repeat steps 1 and 2...
Ah yes the big old problem ...

I`ll always make mistakes somewhere as its part of humanity and I seem to be a human.

bugger
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  • #65,705
  • Apr 25, 2017 12:09pm Apr 25, 2017 12:09pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I'm flat. There are some pullback positions you could buy into but I'm trying to be extra picky about my entries now so I can convince myself I know what I'm doing. My pattern of trading has been until recently 1) Make good decisions and wait for high probability setups, 2) Make money, 3) Become overconfident and pick iffy setups 4) Lose it all stabbing randomly at iffy setups. Would rather just repeat steps 1 and 2...
Yep. You nailed the Psychology of Trading on the head with that statement. When you get past that repertoire then you're golden. Only way around that is experience. Some take less time to get it and others never get it.

Let me add to that statement, sometimes you pick out kickass zones but you don't take them because you are still nursing your ego after a(consecutive) loss(es). One thing we have to remember is that each trade is COMPLETELY independent scenario from your last trade.
  • #65,706
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:20pm Apr 25, 2017 2:20pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I'm flat. There are some pullback positions you could buy into but I'm trying to be extra picky about my entries now so I can convince myself I know what I'm doing. My pattern of trading has been until recently 1) Make good decisions and wait for high probability setups, 2) Make money, 3) Become overconfident and pick iffy setups 4) Lose it all stabbing randomly at iffy setups. Would rather just repeat steps 1 and 2...
i sometimes do 3) and 4) because it reminds me of a slot machine at the casino
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #65,707
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:22pm Apr 25, 2017 2:22pm
As I wrote earlier today with a supporting chart.

USD JPY was Long = Either be Long or flat. Why the hell would you sell something that is rising?

Unless you are a very capable scalper trading short you would have been crushed.
  • #65,708
  • Apr 25, 2017 2:26pm Apr 25, 2017 2:26pm
Quoting FXClarity
As I wrote earlier today with a supporting chart. USD JPY was Long = Either be Long or flat. Why the hell would you sell something that is rising? Unless you are a very capable scalper trading short you would have been crushed.
Good man.. sensible advice..
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #65,709
  • Apr 25, 2017 3:42pm Apr 25, 2017 3:42pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #65,710
  • Apr 25, 2017 5:38pm Apr 25, 2017 5:38pm
Sell order 111.02, tp 110.65 sl 111.21
  • #65,711
  • Apr 25, 2017 7:18pm Apr 25, 2017 7:18pm
It's making new highs, no sign of weakness.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #65,712
  • Apr 25, 2017 7:24pm Apr 25, 2017 7:24pm
Well It think many retail traders want to by yesterdays high which means I will be shorting. Short 111.20 have a small stop at 111.45 looking to tp at 109.30

I think there is some selling at 111.30 area if ti gets there. We shall see.
  • #65,713
  • Apr 25, 2017 7:26pm Apr 25, 2017 7:26pm
To me any long is in danger until 109.14 area is touch again
  • #65,714
  • Apr 25, 2017 7:34pm Apr 25, 2017 7:34pm
So im in my short, let me call out the stops im hunting with the big guys lol. If this is your stop I am after it lolololololololol.

110.95
110.84
110.55
110.31
109.97
and last but not least 109.55

Nice build up of stops to take out, IF my sl doesnt get hit first
  • #65,715
  • Apr 25, 2017 8:06pm Apr 25, 2017 8:06pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Sell order 111.02, tp 110.65 sl 111.21
sl increased to 111.6, may or may not be a mistake. Really think it needs a retrace at the moment. I might hedge if it goes higher.
  • #65,716
  • Apr 25, 2017 8:10pm Apr 25, 2017 8:10pm
How strong is the correletion between AUD/USD and USD/JPY ?
The best way to predict the future is to create it.
  • #65,717
  • Apr 25, 2017 8:19pm Apr 25, 2017 8:19pm
Quoting Trendzalore
So im in my short, let me call out the stops im hunting with the big guys lol. If this is your stop I am after it lolololololololol. 110.95 110.84 110.55 110.31 109.97 and last but not least 109.55 Nice build up of stops to take out, IF my sl doesnt get hit first
Fingers crossed!
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #65,718
  • Apr 25, 2017 9:06pm Apr 25, 2017 9:06pm
Quoting neagu.brk
How strong is the correletion between AUD/USD and USD/JPY ?
Reverse correlation, wouldn't say it's overly strong, but they often move in tandem that way.
  • #65,719
  • Apr 26, 2017 12:17am Apr 26, 2017 12:17am
will see 115 in the next 3 months
  • #65,720
  • Apr 26, 2017 12:49am Apr 26, 2017 12:49am
Pending very short term scalp short.
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