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5 years and still no strategy

  • #341
  • Apr 21, 2017 3:58am Apr 21, 2017 3:58am
Quoting VEEFX
it's 1:30am out here. time to crash. Ciao
You're making some very useful posts here. Why not leave them up to help others that may not happen upon this thread until next week, next month, whenever?
ie getting PM's doesn't mean you need to answer them, or just turn them off and put any trolls on ignore.

Just asking, as any option would seem better than deleting you posts.

Cheers
Good Trading
  • #342
  • Apr 21, 2017 4:01am Apr 21, 2017 4:01am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Yes. I learnt a LOT from the Millipede thread. The multi-dimensional phase-based approach to trend definition is something I create using the philosophy behind "Buy if the current candle closes above the opening price of previous DOWN candle" "Sell if the current candle closes below the opening price of previous UP candle" Similar approach but NOT same as I had to devise a methodology that would work for initial probe exactly the same way as my stacks and it became too much crap accounting for FIFO enforced traders hence the move to automation....
Thanks VEEFX for the expansion. You have given me lot to think about and a potential new way of looking at things...
  • #343
  • Apr 21, 2017 5:47am Apr 21, 2017 5:47am
Quoting aaven
{quote} VEEFX, When you get a chance, could you please share your insights to this: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...29#post9780129 I see that your posts were in a thread called "Building an Equity Millipede"... Is it the foundation of your current strategy? Thanks
What's with the hero worship? The guy says he deletes his posts within 24 hours. How come he gets the 500+ posts on his profile? Posts a load of winning trades on the Equity Millipede thread on a 5 minute chart?

You deserve to be mopped up. Mobbed with PM's? Bollocks.
Gone to a better place
  • #344
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:17am Apr 21, 2017 6:17am
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience... breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
I like this thread.
Do you really want to know the opinion of those present or is it hopeless?
I still didn't understand your aim. Why Forex? Do you want to get a stable profit or you want to get rich fast?
Depending on your answer, it'd be clearer.
As for the five-year experience, I agree with some of those who spoke above. Experience does its job certainly. But doesn't affect success.
The forex market has enough ways to earn both for those who trade, and for those who don't have success in.

Try to look more widely.
  • #345
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:21am Apr 21, 2017 6:21am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Wicks represent noise, chatter, manipulation zone by those who have access to order flow. We in retail do NOT have access to insider information that big banks do so the best defense as a trader is to avoid being in the manipulation zone of the current trend of the chosen timeframe.
What nonsense.
The price always moves, and the tails are also part of the price that goes beyond the formation of a candle. Likewise, closing a candle can be noisy.
I carefully read your messages, and it seems to me that you are not very good at trading. Not interested... del it) water.
Sorry, but this is my opinion.
When you do not understand what to do, do not do anything.
  • #346
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:34am Apr 21, 2017 6:34am
Quoting Teek
{quote} - be fearless
if you are afraid of losing, you will lose. Because you make mistakes and you make these mistakes because of fear.
(close winners too early, pull Stops too tight and too early...)
Have no fear. Trust yourself!
I only started to read this threat now and this is very important. Read the book "Trading In The Zone" by Mark Douglas. Great book about psychology in trading.

It helped me a lot to control my emotions and avoid many mistakes.
  • #347
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:35am Apr 21, 2017 6:35am
Quoting smikester
{quote} What's with the hero worship? The guy says he deletes his posts within 24 hours. How come he gets the 500+ posts on his profile? Posts a load of winning trades on the Equity Millipede thread on a 5 minute chart? You deserve to be mopped up. Mobbed with PM's? Bollocks.
I did get value from his posts. Why do you see a problem in me appreciating him?

"You Deserve to be mopped up."

How come a barely young cub like me rattle a grizzled old lion like you?

Thanks
  • #348
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:37am Apr 21, 2017 6:37am
Not that my opinion is worth anything, but VEEFX is worth reading.

I have been able to catch many other posts of his over the years, and have the benefit of reading his new posts in this thread with that in mind.

I genuinely believe he is one of the very few profitable traders here.
  • #349
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:43am Apr 21, 2017 6:43am
Freajout, I think you are a damn good trader. If you keep losing then do the exact opposite and you should win!
  • #350
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:43am Apr 21, 2017 6:43am
Quoting Matt098
{quote} I like this thread. Do you really want to know the opinion of those present or is it hopeless? I still didn't understand your aim. Why Forex? Do you want to get a stable profit or you want to get rich fast? Depending on your answer, it'd be clearer. As for the five-year experience, I agree with some of those who spoke above. Experience does its job certainly. But doesn't affect success. The forex market has enough ways to earn both for those who trade, and for those who don't have success in. Try to look more widely.
We get a thread like this from time to time. It's a chance for people to vent their frustrations, share ideas and generally talk shit. What is needed to be successful can't be discussed in a few hundred posts. Anyone who reads up on successful hedge funds (after all they are the experts) will surely realise that to make a consistent income at this game is almost impossible unless you have a large capital backing. It's probably a better gamble than putting your money on a four horse accumulator, though, if you are short funded.

Anyway, to get to my question. Why do you say experience does not affect success? I just don't get that. I mean even if experience results in failure, you can cut your losses.
Gone to a better place
  • #351
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:46am Apr 21, 2017 6:46am
Quoting aaven
{quote} I did get value from his posts. Why do you see a problem in me appreciating him? "You Deserve to be mopped up." How come a barely young cub like me rattle a grizzled old lion like you? Thanks
I apologise for implying you could be easily led. That was unlike me. I'm just having a bit of fun.
Gone to a better place
  • #352
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:48am Apr 21, 2017 6:48am
Quoting smikester
{quote} I apologise for implying you could be easily led. That was unlike me. I'm just having a bit of fun.
Mike,

All's good...
  • #353
  • Apr 21, 2017 6:53am Apr 21, 2017 6:53am
Quoting verv
Not that my opinion is worth anything, but VEEFX is worth reading. I have been able to catch many other posts of his over the years, and have the benefit of reading his new posts in this thread with that in mind. I genuinely believe he is one of the very few profitable traders here.
I did not mean to offend anyone.
Just missed a simple thing. Why do not you buy the goods in the store today, if you do not like the price? Why are you waiting for the best price for the goods? Here's your strategy.
And when the best price, it's a matter of technology. Each technology has its own.
If he sees the market so-that's his opinion, the author of the topic should look for his own.
When you do not understand what to do, do not do anything.
  • #354
  • Apr 21, 2017 8:05am Apr 21, 2017 8:05am
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
hi
it is the first time i see this post, so i would like to write here some of my trading thoughs.

well i a trading since long time, and i would like to say, hey my friend, you are right, there is not one strategy that will be your holy one.

trading forex is just a huge pain, fears, tears and hopes.

if you read to any trader here in ff , you will see that there are so many briliant ideas to trade in different modes, but in most cases after few days or months, you will see that the same traders are joining different threads to say i made my trade and i hope it will be touched to gain the profit.

well, trading forex is just to have more than one strategy as what will be right now , it seems to be it was not before few days back and it will not be accepted after few days.

so, to trade forex for the same one pair is just like cooking a stew .... yes, you need to use all old gradiants that you have to be mixed in one pot and to be cooked slowly on light fire to gain the falvor then to add your herbels and spicy ingradiants but you will end with adding the meat at the last point, then to be cooked for few minutes or hours to get a nice beef stew for example.

so, for one pair such as jpy/usd for example, you will see that sometimes it is following trend, then breakouts will be nice and on the same day the COG will show you new weigh of the pair, then the price action will give you signal that the price will go to new level and it will stop the trend bcz the doji happened in that candle but the theory of the price will go to touch the average is not complying with stoch signals and do not forget the support and resistance while making hedging hog two trades .....

to be real trader it means you should not stop on one edge and to say i failed bcz my strategy did not work.

no, any indi will give correct signals, but we the traders will kill this signal by jumping to trade the signal of x million sum of funds while the market makers are waiting this signal tp pump xxxxxxxxx funds more than the signal says in other direction to make you loose the deal by either margin call or by hitting stop loss


did not you ask your self why you are not making money or losing after implementing good strategy , well it is because you have exposed your trading style to the market makers.

my openion is simply mix all of your trading strategies in a blender and trade in using many topics, mthe other parties will not catch your trade and you will succed,,,, enjoy you beef stew.
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #355
  • Edited 6:08pm Apr 22, 2017 5:54pm | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting Samer1970
{quote} hi it is the first time i see this post, so i would like to write here some of my trading thoughs. well i a trading since long time, and i would like to say, hey my friend, you are right, there is not one strategy that will be your holy one. trading forex is just a huge pain, fears, tears and hopes. if you read to any trader here in ff , you will see that there are so many briliant ideas to trade in different modes, but in most cases after few days or months, you will see that the same traders are joining different threads to say i made...
There are a few ways to legitimately win at trading. The first, is be the big stack bully and use your ability to move the market to screw smaller traders out of their positions. Second, if you're a smaller trader, figure out what the big stack bully is doing and ride on his coattails, since you yourself have what amounts to an inconsequential influence on the market if one at all, due to in house trading between clients of a broker. Third, get and act on insider information on policy before the big stack bully does. Unlikely.

Moving averages, bollinger bands, trading news as it becomes "public" (already known in the private, big money loop), and the never have a stop loss method are gambling and people make this illusion for themselves that they can somehow make money this way. The logic here just doesn't hold water that if you mix and match enough voodoo methods you will somehow match the power of knowing one of the above three fundamental things. The real question every trader should ask, is what are the big market movers doing? Can we see where they've been buying and selling on the chart? Where might they be looking to target? I seriously doubt they give a crap about someone's $5000 account and the random ass EA signals based on arbitrary, non-reason based formulas they downloaded for free on ForexFactory.
  • #356
  • Apr 22, 2017 9:46pm Apr 22, 2017 9:46pm
Quoting freakout
... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
Everyone knows: "The best trade is often no trade." The obvious corollary is: "The best trading is often no trading."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #357
  • Apr 22, 2017 11:23pm Apr 22, 2017 11:23pm
Quoting VEEFX
Questions to ask ourselves: Do Retail or MT4 Market Makers share order information among themselves? Do Retail or MT4 Market Makers share order information with their LPs? Why do LPs offer generous lines of credit to their MMs? Why are their so many brokers with different GMT offsets? Why do most brokers limit their tick data? Why is there not an easy way to view swap information? Does a broker make money via swaps? Do brokers work together to move price to 'help' their LPs out? How do brokers manage their "available line of credit" from their LPs?...
The strange thing is, I don't believe most of the big movers and shakers in the market actually have the primary goal of making a capital gains from their trading. What they are in the business of is exchanging money between countries for corporate purposes. The US, for example, has massive trade deals with other countries and business requires the exchange of currency to make business move. They want their dollars exchanged for yen, pounds, euros, at a specific order price, and the people they hire do just that, which is why if you know what to look for, you can see these accumulation and distribution patterns on the chart in the form of consolidation. Those firms that probably do try to gain from the exchanges might include hedge funds and other types of investment firms, but they are probably in the minority and are more likely to trade in the various stock and commodities exchanges than forex. If their volume is large enough, however, their operation is just as hard to hide on the charts. Think of it like this - what does it look like to buy $5,000,000 worth of Euros on the chart? Price has to stick around that area so that the average price the business gets is what they're targeting, so they will attempt to keep price at those levels to fill their orders.

That said, I don't think those things you listed are really the crux of the issue of profitability. The dealers/market makers/brokers all make money by commissions and spreads. So there's overhead in your trading from that to be sure, but unless you're a high frequency trader trying to take advantage of something like arbitrage, brokers are made out to be the boogeymen far too often. Now, the twist is that if you don't have a real edge, even if you have fair game where you have a 50% chance of losing or making a buck, if you continue to trade with no edge and are charged a fee every time you trade, you're going to end up losing money. It's like a rake in poker between friends at a casino. They can play forever, and eventually the fees will eat up their prize pool. The amount of money wasted this way by traders should not be understated. But is that really the brokerage's fault? They're a business, not a charity, and if one wants to trade hocus pocus witchcraft methods based on an alternate reality, that's not their fault either.
  • #358
  • Edited Apr 23, 2017 12:16am Apr 22, 2017 11:53pm | Edited Apr 23, 2017 12:16am
Quoting freakout
Thank you for all replies For the last 4 years I was spending something about 10 hours daily in front of MT4 and for the last 2 years I was trading without any indicators. I know how to trade with trend using HL/LH method as I always want to take a good entry. I know everything about proper money management - I always risk 2% of my account per trade with 1:2 ratio as it's easy to hit and it's the most profitable scenario (confirmed by many excel calculators, etc.). I'm a big fan of japanese candlestick patterns and I always tried to build...
You learned all the 'rules'. Did you learn how to think for yourself? The global economy doesn't conform to rules. So, I'll give you these three recent events;

Fed raised interest rates(as everyone expected) then the USD dropped for two weeks.

President Zuma rearranged his cabinet and fired his economic advisor Gordon then the Rand dropped for two weeks.

Donald Trump bombed Syria and then the USD dropped for over a week.

If you can figure out these correlations you will be profitable... but the money will no longer matter in the grand scheme of things.

I spent about a decade doing math in my head and searching for an edge before I even entered the market. Half that time I spent chasing my own psychological demons. 4 months in(trading 16 hours a day)... and I understand exactly what works. I also understand exactly why most people will fail. There is no holy grail. It exists solely in their minds. Even the 'Market Makers' are humans. They think like humans and they respond like humans. Humans care about money... and they don't like losing it.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #359
  • Apr 23, 2017 1:16am Apr 23, 2017 1:16am
Quoting VEEFX
Questions to ask ourselves: Do Retail or MT4 Market Makers share order information among themselves? Do Retail or MT4 Market Makers share order information with their LPs? Why do LPs offer generous lines of credit to their MMs? Why are their so many brokers with different GMT offsets? Why do most brokers limit their tick data? Why is there not an easy way to view swap information? Does a broker make money via swaps? Do brokers work together to move price to 'help' their LPs out? How do brokers manage their "available line of credit" from their LPs?...
You write the correct things in the message above, but everything is clear to the trader for a long time. The forex market is a big fraud - it's clear long ago.
There is a question in the technique of trade. In fact, you do not offer anything.
I also do not have a strategy, like the author of the topic, I trade in the search for good market offers in all available ways, my transactions last no more than an hour or two. These are my rules. I am a trader with 14 years of experience but I could not understand how to predict the trend, For this I trade only on the trend.
If you really have a good strategy, why not share it with a narrow circle of people? I'm very upset because I'm a fool, so for many years I did not understand something.
When you do not understand what to do, do not do anything.
  • #360
  • Edited 4:13am Apr 23, 2017 3:43am | Edited 4:13am
Hello.

I stopped reading at page 2, so sorry if I cover something already discussed.

Since you prefer to trade technical analysis, then I recommend using a tool that tracks news releases so you can be aware of possible areas where your trade might be at risk. I don't trade 1HR or 4HR time frames, so it allows me to simply sit out of the market until the patterns return.

I don't use candlesticks, lol, nor horizontal lines, diagonal lines, fibo lines, pivot lines, or any of those other ineffective tools. Those are "salesman" tools, "economist" tools, "lazy trader" tools. They mean absolutely nothing. Money is the same as any other business. It works on supply and demand. If you are not measuring supply and demand, how can you expect to profit? In ancient times, candlesticks were all they had, and they were for one commodity...rice. I am not sure if you know this or not, but things have changed. Lines all over your chart were popular in the 1920's, but it is nearly the 2020's and they are obsolete too.

That is probably why you are struggling. Wrong time frame, wrong analysis, and in the market during news releases. The first step to improving your trading is to do a SWOT analysis of your trading business. Find your strengths, your weaknesses, your opportunities, and your threats. Design a business plan around what you can do, and what you cannot do.

As for me, I measure supply and demand by sample sizes. A key concept is that a range on a higher time frame appears as a trend on a lower time frame. In my opinion, trends are easier to trade. Of course, at times the lower time frame also ranges, but nearly every single day there are 1-3 swings to profit on. If you did not guess already, I trade intraday swings. A time is just a time frame, and much more profit is made when price is going vertical, and those instances occur more frequently on smaller time frames.

I understand you want to do whatever it is you learned, but I hope someday you realize it sucks and that is why you are stuck. Doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results is insanity. Consider your technique is poor and you need to reevaluate it.

Sorry to be bias, as "supposedly" there are other ways to trade, but I have not seen any that compare. If you want to keep doing what you are doing, then you probably should quit. Otherwise, snap out of your hypnosis and learn a new method. I shouldn't have to tell you that, as it appears to be the purpose of your thread. You know something is wrong, and that something is you are trading yesterday's trades, and don't have a clue how to trade today's trades. You cannot make money trading a day/week/month too late. You need to be in the now, with the current supply and demand, or else you are just guessing, and probably losing. Good Luck

PS. If you do plan to keep trying, then realize that failure is the secret to success. Thomas Edison tried over 10,000 different methods to create the light bulb. He said he was not failing. He was learning what did not work. If you know what doesn't work, stop doing it, and find something that does. That is what I did. You can do that too. That is how you succeed.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
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