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5 years and still no strategy

  • #321
  • Apr 20, 2017 5:44pm Apr 20, 2017 5:44pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} And these big events, like Trump winning the presidency or Brexit actually being passed. Can you refer me to the fortune teller who granted you this vital information? Of course it's easy to make money if you know the future. But if I did, I'd be calling tomorrow's mega millions jackpot instead of forex. {quote} Regardless of whether or not knowing actual volume is that much of an edge in any trading, where do you get any sort of reliable figure like that for a decentralized, unregulated market like forex? You might get your broker,...
Roger out
Indentify > Plan > Accept > Execute
  • #322
  • Apr 20, 2017 8:06pm Apr 20, 2017 8:06pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} ++ final post before I disappear: No one can determine the start of a trend or when the trend ends. Atleast I have yet to figure out how. All we can do is determine in which 'phase' we are within a trend (for any pair and timeframe combination): Start of up or down trend > Unknown/don't care TC: Continuation of trend > yes we can - Enter a trade TCF: Confirmation of a following thru a continuation of trend > yes we can - Stack / add more positions TR: Reversal or retrace within a trend > yes we can - enter a trade TRF: Confirmation of a...
What complete rubbish. Again the blind leading the blind. Come back when you are a winning trader or stick to your day job.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #323
  • Apr 21, 2017 12:02am Apr 21, 2017 12:02am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} the logic is so dumb you will laugh at what I have to convey. Every candle has a wick and a body. The body is what I consider a safe zone or fair value to represent the economic sentiment between two countries. The sentiment changes only when the body of the candle moves from one range to the next range either up or down and that's what truly represents a TREND... i.e. the overlaps between the open and close of a time period. Trend by definition is a directional move from point A to point B and starting from time x to time y. This is the...
VEEFX,

A very interesting way of looking at market. Thanks for taking the time and effort...

Could you please elaborate more on these:

1. "The sentiment changes only when the body of the candle moves from one range to the next range either up or down and that's what truly represents a TREND... i.e. the overlaps between the open and close of a time period."

Let's say we have a range of 1.0080 and 1.0020 on EURUSD. Does the whole body of the candle fall on either of these two values before we can say, a trend has changed?

Could you please include a snapshot if possible, I want to be sure i don't miss anything.

2. "ALL my trades are earmarked on the timeframe I enter on. if you don't do this fundamental, foundational and elemental aspect in your trade log then you are NOT a trend follower."

How does one exactly earmark on the time frame we enter?

3. "Stops based on ATR or any derivative of price for that matter will affect your consistency. I tend to avoid any technical calculations like ATRs, RSI, Stock, Bands, etc."

What is the ideal approach to setting Stops?


Thanks

PS: Having a 250k+ job at an executive level means a certain work pressure. It's inspiring that you are able to juggle both.
  • #324
  • Apr 21, 2017 12:18am Apr 21, 2017 12:18am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} What complete rubbish. Again the blind leading the blind. Come back when you are a winning trader or stick to your day job.
The only rubbish part was that he/she was foolish enough to try and impart some wisdom here. Vee can stack trades like packs of playing cards and be gone before they topple. A millipede disciple. Lot's of people like to cut off their nose to spite their face.

When/if you pop in again Vee, save your time, it's the process, the cliff edge is too strong a draw.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #325
  • Apr 21, 2017 12:28am Apr 21, 2017 12:28am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} The only rubbish part was that he/she was foolish enough to try and impart some wisdom here. Vee can stack trades like packs of playing cards and be gone before they topple. A millipede disciple. Lot's of people like to cut off their nose to spite their face. When/if you pop in again Vee, save your time, it's the process, the cliff edge is too strong a draw.
Trends are crap. By the time you see you're in one, the market changes direction. It's a paradox built on perspective.

Further, the distinction of the parts of a "candle" is just silly. It's information. That's all. Nothing more, nothing less. You can choose any arbitrary time frame you like, but the fact of the matter is, price visited the points it did. You can choose a line graph, bars, or candles, or anything else and glean essentially identical information about what the market did in the past. Saying that this arbitrarily drawn wick is in itself some device to mess you up is a pretty shaky conclusion to say the least.

And as for him saying profitability is driven by the markets....what does that even mean? Profitability is knowing where your opponents' orders are located and trying to take advantage of that. And therein lies the golden goose of forex - how do you know? None of the advice in his vague hocus pocus methodology discusses the critical question of order flow whatsoever.
  • #326
  • Apr 21, 2017 12:39am Apr 21, 2017 12:39am
The notion of trend and candlestick or any other TA is pure nonsense...
It reminds me of all the great errors in science.
This one is the bench mark:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phlogiston_theory
  • #327
  • Apr 21, 2017 12:53am Apr 21, 2017 12:53am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Trends are crap. By the time you see you're in one, the market changes direction. It's a paradox built on perspective. Further, the distinction of the parts of a "candle" is just silly. It's information. That's all. Nothing more, nothing less. You can choose any arbitrary time frame you like, but the fact of the matter is, price visited the points it did. You can choose a line graph, bars, or candles, or anything else and glean essentially identical information about what the market did in the past. Saying that this arbitrarily drawn wick...
I tried to look into Order Flow methodologies but it just seemed forex voodoo to me. I'm sticking to PA TA for now.
  • #328
  • Apr 21, 2017 12:58am Apr 21, 2017 12:58am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Trends are crap. By the time you see you're in one, the market changes direction. It's a paradox built on perspective. Further, the distinction of the parts of a "candle" is just silly. It's information. That's all. Nothing more, nothing less. You can choose any arbitrary time frame you like, but the fact of the matter is, price visited the points it did. You can choose a line graph, bars, or candles, or anything else and glean essentially identical information about what the market did in the past. Saying that this arbitrarily drawn wick...
I agree to some extent, I really don't like the term trend as it means different things to different people. I am pretty sure what Vee is talking about is awareness of were you are. So you could be short on a 5 min basis but the tide is just about to drown you on on an hourly or daily basis. I think Vee style is spotting turns jumping in on momentum stacking trades and getting out before tide turns again. I have seen the evidence on milipede thread but he deletes all his/her old posts. What I say is if you trade with minimal expectation you have greater chance of survival. I'm not saying you are wrong about a lot of stuff being hocus pocus etc but I think you just have to accept some people have a natural talent for this game and others don't. Just like some kid who dreams of being world class footballer or rugby player, for most all they can do is dream, working hard isn't enough there has to be some natural ability/affinity. So all the explaining of this that and the other can mean absolutely nothing to many and may strike a chord with only tiny percentage. I know you think if someone is pulling coin out of the market it is pure luck and perhaps you are right.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #329
  • Apr 21, 2017 1:22am Apr 21, 2017 1:22am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} I agree to some extent, I really don't like the term trend as it means different things to different people. I am pretty sure what Vee is talking about is awareness of were you are. So you could be short on a 5 min basis but the tide is just about to drown you on on an hourly or daily basis. I think Vee style is spotting turns jumping in on momentum stacking trades and getting out before tide turns again. I have seen the evidence on milipede thread but he deletes all his/her old posts. What I say is if you trade with minimal expectation...
All I know, is that I really don't know. I was big into the supply/demand school of thought, got into stuff like Seiden, Redsword, and then RTM (which ended up being a likely con job). I think I can spot order flow in the market, the rationale behind it still seems to make sense, but I was never able to make any consistent money from it. So possible, sure. Someone has to be pulling it in. But I'm pretty sure we're the fools in the room, not the sharks who move the market.
  • #330
  • Apr 21, 2017 1:39am Apr 21, 2017 1:39am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} All I know, is that I really don't know. I was big into the supply/demand school of thought, got into stuff like Seiden, Redsword, and then RTM (which ended up being a likely con job). I think I can spot order flow in the market, the rationale behind it still seems to make sense, but I was never able to make any consistent money from it. So possible, sure. Someone has to be pulling it in. But I'm pretty sure we're the fools in the room, not the sharks who move the market.
I don't know about all of that stuff to comment to be honest but whoever or whatever it is maybe it something only they can see and try as they might to get others to see, other people can't see it. Similar for what I do maybe only I can see it that way, I've no idea. Anyway I only put my oar in because the whole FF thing is a monster now, everyone is out to con everyone and understandable that can make a lot of people very doubtful of everything they read and that is shame as I really think there are some people here who make attempts to give information with the best intentions and yes they also make money.
Anyway I think the thread is bizarre as the OP says he knows price action and if he does I really don't understand why he doesn't apply it, I mean what else is he looking for ? Then again maybe price action means different things to different people. I don't know but to me price action isn't a bullish outside bar etc. It's all open to interpretation I suppose but whatever it is he thinks he knows that should be enough to work with, if not have a reality check and pack in.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #331
  • Apr 21, 2017 2:03am Apr 21, 2017 2:03am
Wildbill2U. May be you can post your site for members and some of us who are interested can join and maybe improve our trading skills. Most of us surfing FF are trying to learn or improve our trading skill. Many time some beginners makes good point, and then with a little twiggle or adjustment make improvements to your trading. That is why I believe FF is the best sight not only for beginners, but even professional traders. Some traders learnt faster as the perfect system came there way at the right time. Others struggle even after 5-10 years. But when there is a will, the way will appear. Just be willing to learn and practice. If you did not quit, you are not a looser.
Thanks for all the good traders and bad traders as well as beginners. We can all learn from it.
  • #332
  • Apr 21, 2017 2:24am Apr 21, 2017 2:24am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} But I'm pretty sure we're the fools in the room, not the sharks who move the market.
anyone working as a retail forex trader that thinks they are a shark moving the market is just a retarded tadpole but retail traders can still make a living out of trading the market it's just hard and no for everyone
  • #333
  • Apr 21, 2017 2:31am Apr 21, 2017 2:31am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Trends are crap.
I wonder why people who don't even make money in Forex make the boldest statements? You obviously have no skills to forecast or recognize or a trend soon enough to make money but that doesn't mean that trends are crap or don't exist, your skills are just crap.
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #334
  • Apr 21, 2017 2:31am Apr 21, 2017 2:31am
Quoting VEEFX
my posts are designed to be hocus pocus to avoid writing a 100 page article on what I do and then receive countless PMs. my trading plan is embedded in a 5000+ lines of automation. focus of OP was trend following and why he is unable to find a strategy so let me attempt one more time... My Definition of a Trend: Conditions under which price moves from point A to point B. if B is higher than A, it's uptrend, if B is lower than A, it is downtrend. it does not matter (to me!) whether we are in rangebound market, HH, LL, doubletop, trippletop, near...
I think the reason they called your initial post rubbish and may still bash the last one you posted is because you offer no practicality, it's like a science Professor telling you the moon is round like the earth but not given you the Telescope to verify it.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #335
  • Apr 21, 2017 2:35am Apr 21, 2017 2:35am
Quoting michisuperfr
{quote} I wonder why people who don't even make money in Forex make the boldest statements? You obviously have no skills to forecast or recognize or a trend soon enough to make money but that doesn't mean that trends are crap or don't exist, your skills are just crap.
Alright big mouth, where's your trade explorer for us to scrutinize? I bet you're a real baller. You're the one with the affirmative case to make, so please enlighten us on how you've been making bank on "trends". Please, sir.

Quoting calebfx
{quote} I think the reason they called your initial post rubbish and may still bash the last one you posted is because you offer no practicality, it's like a science Professor telling you the moon is round like the earth but not given you the Telescope to verify it.
This is pretty much the reason a lot of us become annoyed with certain posts. Too much vague theory and not enough results. Some of the people saying they're making money and denouncing us as "losers" are the same ones who will never show you a trade explorer to back up their bombastic claims. To be clear, I'm not directing this at you, Vee. I don't agree with you but the latter part of my statement refers to certain other users on this forum.
  • #336
  • Apr 21, 2017 2:53am Apr 21, 2017 2:53am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I used to participate heavily on FF (but only in one thread) and respond and reply to everyone. Once I left, my approach is razor sharp with focus on my intent to post. I have developed the ability to ignore clutter in my life. Same principle applies to my posts and the primary reason why I delete them within 24 hors. I come in and respond to something worthwhile and only if I find it on the home page. For this activity, I am focused on the primary concern of OP i.e. "I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I...
Like I said, I don't agree with your methodology or believe in its viability. But you know, I can respect that you aren't here to build a following for a scam setup down the road. Those are the people here that are the worst dreck. Lots of it on this site now too much like a cancer. I think there's something to order flow. But even knowing what I do and seeing it on the charts reacting, I advise all newbies to just stay away.
  • #337
  • Apr 21, 2017 3:07am Apr 21, 2017 3:07am
Quoting VEEFX
I will also say this for sure. FF used to be a better place to learn and share knowledge. Most of my wisdom was learnt here from other members (like pre-2011 era). I feel most lurkers here now work for brokers and marker makers to share their scam strategies to attract noobs into trading strategies that benefit your counterparty. No factual evidence but knowing what I know, somethings are just detrimental to trading (including the trailing stops, "move SL to BE", place stops on tip of wick+space etc) Peace
VEEFX,

When you get a chance, could you please share your insights to this:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...29#post9780129

I see that your posts were in a thread called "Building an Equity Millipede"... Is it the foundation of your current strategy?

Thanks
  • #338
  • Apr 21, 2017 3:13am Apr 21, 2017 3:13am
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?

Get yourself a journal, analyse your edge.

What links your winners?
What links your losers?

Formulate a plan and stick to it.

Be detached from results.

Even if you hit market long or short with 1:1R stop/target, you'll have a (roughly) 50% winrate. Don't over-complicate this
  • #339
  • Apr 21, 2017 3:21am Apr 21, 2017 3:21am
Many things were written, it was very interesting to read the positions of traders.
I have been trading since 2003, and to the present. What have I tried? Yes, probably all that science can offer.
Forex is not the place of analysts. For analysts, one has to deal with material things. Futures, stocks, etc.
My approach is very simple. Forex is an exchanger.
You need to look for the best price offers and that's enough.
The best price to buy and the best for sale. The market also looks for the best offers and it needs to be taken into account.
Very simple. Two kiosks, in one bought in another sold.
Sincerely.
When you do not understand what to do, do not do anything.
  • #340
  • Apr 21, 2017 3:36am Apr 21, 2017 3:36am
This is what we used on the floor many years ago. The where some computers with charts, some people would glance at them before and after the session. People made money in the following ways:

1. Order filling
2. Leaning on customer orders
3. Luck
4. Stealing

Same as it ever was.

PS..I've used all four methods...
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