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5 years and still no strategy

  • #101
  • Apr 16, 2017 7:05am Apr 16, 2017 7:05am
FF, lol, here we go again.
Trading = competing against the world's best traders, cheaters and insiders.
So, what makes you and your trading method so special to generate consistent money?
The real failure rate of noobs is 99.99% because they don't have what it takes to make it: no excellent trading method and skill.
  • #102
  • Apr 16, 2017 7:14am Apr 16, 2017 7:14am
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
you set the bar very low and you got it wrong
50% success rate at 1:2 will give you a negative profit if you take into account broker fees.

I dont like the way of thinking as in looking for setups, i prefer to call it reading the story RTS vids i put them out every week on a bunch of markets.
When you follow the story you are in sync with price, the trade will jump out at you, and if you have a proper stop and a good RvR then you will be profitable over time.

heres a vid on the rvr thing. various examples given
https://vimeo.com/212006816
  • #103
  • Apr 16, 2017 7:46am Apr 16, 2017 7:46am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} It's not because futures is different than forex that it's better... More accurate would be to say that they are both crap in their own unique ways. (BTW Order Flow does leave a trace in forex also) Just like in retail forex - "retail futures" is a net loser. If one must trade, one must choose one's own poison.
Yes, Futures is different. Futures is a transparent market, Forex is not. You can not see order flow in Forex. In Forex you are instantly down money as soon as you put on a position. My positions go through an exchange. Your orders go to your broker.
  • #104
  • Apr 16, 2017 8:03am Apr 16, 2017 8:03am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} I believe you Issam. It still going because you made it "yours", you feed it, cherish it and believe in it. We must meet, summer maybe ?

Yeah sure ill be waiting
Senior Trader Multi-Account Manager
  • #105
  • Apr 16, 2017 8:03am Apr 16, 2017 8:03am
Quoting notouch
{quote} Order flow can be and is faked. Read up on the SP500 flash crash trader. If anyone can place and cancel orders what value is it? There's also the fact that unlike stock index futures, FX futures are a tiny fraction of the spot market.
Trust me, I know. I know about spoofing, icebergs, headfakes, all of it. But here is the thing.... I can see it. It's all very useful when put in context. I trade treasuries which is a super thick slow market and takes serious size to move it. If someone is pulling a couple thousand contracts I can see it on the DOM. If someone places large orders... I can see it. I don't trade FX Futures for that reason.
  • #106
  • Apr 16, 2017 8:05am Apr 16, 2017 8:05am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Hi Lorix, Could you please elaborate more about Market having borders and limits. What characteristic of the market lends itself to this kind of behavior? Thanks
you may wanna take a look at this to better understand https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...520041&page=17

as also u can join the Telegram channel for daily forecast at :- https://t.me/istanbuli_fx
Senior Trader Multi-Account Manager
  • #107
  • Apr 16, 2017 8:39am Apr 16, 2017 8:39am
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Trust me, I know. I know about spoofing, icebergs, headfakes, all of it. But here is the thing.... I can see it. It's all very useful when put in context. I trade treasuries which is a super thick slow market and takes serious size to move it. If someone is pulling a couple thousand contracts I can see it on the DOM. If someone places large orders... I can see it. I don't trade FX Futures for that reason.
Given the huge size of the market I doubt very much you can see 'someone' placing large orders in treasuries. DOM is useful for scalping but there's going to be some other guy closer to the exchange than you who is better placed to make money. The idea of everyone having equal access on an exchange is delusional. For longer term positions DOM is irrelevant. All the information you need is in price and volume.
  • #108
  • Apr 16, 2017 8:43am Apr 16, 2017 8:43am
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Yes, Futures is different. Futures is a transparent market, Forex is not. You can not see order flow in Forex. In Forex you are instantly down money as soon as you put on a position. My positions go through an exchange. Your orders go to your broker.
Not really true. You're instantly down trading futures too as you have to pay a commission to your broker that's typically equal to about 1 tick. Some forex brokers have favourable spreads so you only need the market to go 0.5 pips in your favour to be in the black.
  • #109
  • Apr 16, 2017 8:59am Apr 16, 2017 8:59am
Quoting lorix
{quote} you may wanna take a look at this to better understand https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...520041&page=17 as also u can join the Telegram channel for daily forecast at :- https://t.me/istanbuli_fx
Thanks Lorix for your inputs. Will check it out...
  • #110
  • Apr 16, 2017 9:21am Apr 16, 2017 9:21am
Quoting notouch
{quote} Given the huge size of the market I doubt very much you can see 'someone' placing large orders in treasuries. DOM is useful for scalping but there's going to be some other guy closer to the exchange than you who is better placed to make money. The idea of everyone having equal access on an exchange is delusional. For longer term positions DOM is irrelevant. All the information you need is in price and volume.
look I don't need to convince you of anything you obviously have your mind made up. If you've never looked at a good DOM that shows recent bid/ask, pulling/stacking, then you have no clue. Yes, I use the DOM to scalp. I look for 3 to 5 ticks unless order flow tells me otherwise. If I was to ask you to tell me what you will be doing 5 min from now vs 6 hours from now, I would bet you could be more accurate with the 5 min prediction. Futures are a transparent market. Sure someone may have a better connection, but at least I can see what they are doing.
  • #111
  • Edited 9:45am Apr 16, 2017 9:26am | Edited 9:45am
Quoting notouch
{quote} Not really true. You're instantly down trading futures too as you have to pay a commission to your broker that's typically equal to about 1 tick. Some forex brokers have favourable spreads so you only need the market to go 0.5 pips in your favour to be in the black.
Lol okay I pay about $3.00 round turn for 1 contract in commissions, but my tick size is $31. I only have to make 1 tick per 10 trades to cover commissions. To get those good spreads in Forex you are also paying commissions plus a spread. Why the hell would you want even more of a disadvantage in one of the hardest games in the world?

In Forex if I was trading 3 standard lots it would be $24 in commissions plus a .5 spread $15. So you are starting out in the hole $39. You have to make over a tick every trade just to cover commissions. CRAZY! This does matter.
  • #112
  • Apr 16, 2017 10:06am Apr 16, 2017 10:06am
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} look I don't need to convince you of anything you obviously have your mind made up. If you've never looked at a good DOM that shows recent bid/ask, pulling/stacking, then you have no clue. Yes, I use the DOM to scalp. I look for 3 to 5 ticks unless order flow tells me otherwise. If I was to ask you to tell me what you will be doing 5 min from now vs 6 hours from now, I would bet you could be more accurate with the 5 min prediction. Futures are a transparent market. Sure someone may have a better connection, but at least I can see what they...
You're the one who has no clue, that's why you keep backtracking. First you claimed you could see 'someone' i.e. one trader placing large orders, now you're just talking in general terms about order flow. Of course you can use order flow to scalp. I was combining that with tick reading on YM when you were probably still a kid. But it's just as difficult as any other trading method. You can make a fortune or you can screw up and blow your account. So what? Why are you even talking about it on this thread? It's clearly not going to help the OP or anyone else struggling to make a profit after 5 years. It seems your only purpose in posting is to 'big yourself up', something you've failed to do miserably.
  • #113
  • Apr 16, 2017 10:12am Apr 16, 2017 10:12am
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Lol okay I pay about $3.00 round turn for 1 contract in commissions, but my tick size is $31. I only have to make 1 tick per 10 trades to cover commissions. To get those good spreads in Forex you are also paying commissions plus a spread. Why the hell would you want even more of a disadvantage in one of the hardest games in the world? In Forex if I was trading 3 standard lots it would be $24 in commissions plus a .5 spread $15. So you are starting out in the hole $39. You have to make over a tick every trade just to cover commissions. CRAZY!...
For scalping it does but for trading the 4H charts it makes very little difference. When you're looking for a 500 pip move trade placement is more important. Also the liquidity isn't there in the futures market, especially on crosses, so you're not going to get filled at the price you want. And if you're a high volume scalper you can get spreads of 0.1 pips and a much lower commission if you choose your broker wisely. Only a fool would choose the futures market over say LMAX for trading forex.
  • #114
  • Apr 16, 2017 10:23am Apr 16, 2017 10:23am
Quoting notouch
{quote} You're the one who has no clue, that's why you keep backtracking. First you claimed you could see 'someone' i.e. one trader placing large orders, now you're just talking in general terms about order flow. Of course you can use order flow to scalp. I was combining that with tick reading on YM when you were probably still a kid. But it's just as difficult as any other trading method. You can make a fortune or you can screw up and blow your account. So what? Why are you even talking about it on this thread? It's clearly not going to help the...
Im doing no backtracking. YOU CAN SEE TRADERS PLACING AND PULLING LARGE ORDERS on a good DOM "Jigsaw's for example". I never said it was easy mr assumptions. Sure on a thin market like YM it's going to be much more difficult to read orderflow when it jumps 10 ticks in seconds. I'm giving the OP advice to save up some money and move over to Futures and trade a thicker market. What advice have you given him jackass? Lol FF is the last place I would come to to 'big myself up'. I could care less what you think. Sorry for being in my mid 30's grandpa.
  • #115
  • Edited 10:53am Apr 16, 2017 10:29am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting notouch
{quote} For scalping it does but for trading the 4H charts it makes very little difference. When you're looking for a 500 pip move trade placement is more important. Also the liquidity isn't there in the futures market, especially on crosses, so you're not going to get filled at the price you want. And if you're a high volume scalper you can get spreads of 0.1 pips and a much lower commission if you choose your broker wisely. Only a fool would choose the futures market over say LMAX for trading forex.
Lol good god you are like talking to a wall. I layed it all out there for you. You let me know where I can pay $3 in commissions for 3 standard lots (without being a high volume scalper) with no spread, with tax advantages (in the US), with transparency? I'll wait...

i also better make make it clear that I'm not talking about trading currency futures. I'm talking about trading treasuries. I'm pretty sure I already stated that, but I know old people are forgetful so I will give you a pass.

If you truly think treasuries aren't liquid enough then you have some major issues. There are thousands at each price on the DOM to fill your orders. 100 lot fills with no slippage in the treasuries is no problem.
  • #116
  • Apr 16, 2017 10:38am Apr 16, 2017 10:38am
Quoting notouch
{quote} For scalping it does but for trading the 4H charts it makes very little difference. When you're looking for a 500 pip move trade placement is more important. Also the liquidity isn't there in the futures market, especially on crosses, so you're not going to get filled at the price you want. And if you're a high volume scalper you can get spreads of 0.1 pips and a much lower commission if you choose your broker wisely. Only a fool would choose the futures market over say LMAX for trading forex.
Oh and commissions do matter even if you're swing trading. Let's look at the bigger picture. Let's say you put on 100 trades a year trading 3 standard lots.
100 Trades
$24 round turn
.5 spread $15
= $3,900

where as I'm paying
$3 round turn
no spread
= $300

THATS FREE MONEY! Simple math.
  • #117
  • Apr 16, 2017 10:58am Apr 16, 2017 10:58am
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Lol good god you are like talking to a wall. I layed it all out there for you. You let me know where I can pay $3 in commissions for 3 standard lots (without being a high volume scalper) with no spread, with tax advantages (in the US), with transparency? I'll wait...
Thanks for sharing your insight about the futures market. The idea is still new to me because as I mentioned, I assumed the futures market was only accessible to the professionals. If you can, would you please clarify:

1. possible tax advantages for US persons
2. futures broker suggestions for US persons

Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Oh and commissions do matter even if you're swing trading. Let's look at the bigger picture. Let's say you put on 100 trades a year trading 3 standard lots. 100 Trades $24 round turn .5 spread $15 = $3,900 where as I'm paying $3 round turn no spread = $300 THATS FREE MONEY! Simple math.
My personal style is to net position and I do place many trades to nedge so I especially would benefit from the lower commissions so any additional insight would be appreciated.
  • #118
  • Apr 16, 2017 11:10am Apr 16, 2017 11:10am
Quoting freakout
{quote} I would wait for a signal from japanese candlestick patterns as this is not a clean situation for me
Every teacher with his book
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  • #119
  • Apr 16, 2017 11:17am Apr 16, 2017 11:17am
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} Lol good god you are like talking to a wall. I layed it all out there for you. You let me know where I can pay $3 in commissions for 3 standard lots (without being a high volume scalper) with no spread, with tax advantages (in the US), with transparency? I'll wait... i also better make make it clear that I'm not talking about trading currency futures. I'm talking about trading treasuries. I'm pretty sure I already stated that, but I know old people are forgetful so I will give you a pass. If you truly think treasuries aren't liquid enough...
Comparing treasuries to forex is not comparing like with like. Notice this website is called forexfactory, not treasuriesfactory. If you want to talk about treasuries go to elitetrader. I made it very clear my comments were comparing fx futures to a decent fx broker and there's no comparison, a decent fx broker wins every time. I trade SP500 futures on the same exchange as you and yes it's more cost effective but when I want to trade forex I'll use the spot market. It doesn't have to be one or the other. You can trade both with Interactive Brokers, for example.
  • #120
  • Apr 16, 2017 11:30am Apr 16, 2017 11:30am
Quoting TGS
{quote} Thanks for sharing your insight about the futures market. The idea is still new to me because as I mentioned, I assumed the futures market was only accessible to the professionals. If you can, would you please clarify: 1. possible tax advantages for US persons 2. futures broker suggestions for US persons {quote} My personal style is to net position and I do place many trades to nedge so I especially would benefit from the lower commissions so any additional insight would be appreciated.
1. You can go here and read the advantages. He does a pretty good job breaking it down. https://www.danielstrading.com/tradi...utures-trading

2. I use AMP Futures. http://www.ampfutures.com/

Please note all Futures do not have the excellent commission structure like Treasuries. So do your research. If you are hedging the same instrument you will need two accounts. I also don't recommend swinging treasuries, but if you can find an edge in it, then go for it.
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