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5 years and still no strategy

  • #81
  • Apr 15, 2017 9:01pm Apr 15, 2017 9:01pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Yes, I was referring to FX futures. My broker requires approx. $7,000 to trade one contract of Euro futures. Other brokers require less. Forex brokers require a fraction of that to trade one lot of EU.
Gotcha. My broker has a maintenance margin of $2,750 and a day trade margin of $500. I think it's insane you can open an account with $500 and trade 6E. That market is way to volatile. I would at minimum start with 10k if you're going to trade 6E.
  • #82
  • Apr 15, 2017 9:21pm Apr 15, 2017 9:21pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} So you had 5 years of losses. So you tried this and that. So you want someone to give you 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio because of your losses. Same "poor me" story over and over again on FF. FF is a graveyard for losing traders. The posters and viewers have come to lay their flowers on yet another losing trader.
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With some thought, you could see the OP was asking a rhetorical question or making a statement. As in, a figure of speech. The OP definitely didn't ask for corrosive and poisonous feedback. Yes, it is a public forum and you're entitled to your opinion but you should know that you're only revealing your misery.

I have to admit, it makes me happy to see you trying to secrete your poison. Personally, I'm glad to see your state of mind because it's the best punishment anyone could give you for being a troll. Please continue to demonstrate your continued corrosive experience of life but if at all possible, I ask that you try not to be so forward with berating the other users because ultimately, this is going to discourage high quality people from participating in the forum.

Think of it this way, if you drive everyone away, who would be left for you to berate?
  • #83
  • Apr 15, 2017 9:40pm Apr 15, 2017 9:40pm
Quoting lKeithStone
This is why technical analysis will kill you. A chart is nothing more than a graphical representation of where the price was in the PAST. Just because the market stopped there before does not mean that it will do so again. Plus, why did it stop there in the past? Did it stop because some huge trader sold 10,000? Or was there very little volume driving the move? Was it 9:00a.m. or was it 2:45p.m.? Did a few hundred contracts cause a 10 point run? This is important to know. That number is more important if 10,000 traded there than if 500 traded there....
does having access to futures order book really help profitability? is there a study to compare % profitable rate among forex traders vs futures traders vs stock traders?

if the failure rate is roughly the same across all markets, then the conclusion is that order book won't do swat to your trading. you can conclude that technical voodoo is as useful as reading order book in futures

but, if there is strong evidence that futures trader have higher success rate, then i'd agree with what you're saying, we all should switch over.
  • #84
  • Apr 15, 2017 9:45pm Apr 15, 2017 9:45pm
Quoting sevan62
{quote} You are wrong here buddy. I was talking about trading signals which are coming not from indicators only. There are a lot of different types of trading signals: Chart patterns (Head and Shoulders, Double Top/Bottom, Flag, Triangle ...), Japanees Candles and their patterns (Pin Bar, Dodji, Hammer ...), Price Action (Price touches SnR level or Supply/Demand zone ...), Signal from VSA analyses when price reaches VPOC level (Market Profile system), Some fundamental factors. For example Market sentiment change point when the biggest banks closes...
Are you suggesting that also the trading signals themselves are independent of each other?

Without splitting hairs, it's reasonable to assume that if the true unforeseen market direction is long, trading signals are likely to essentially say long on or about the same time period. Look I don't have to argue that those events are not independent because frankly that part is common sense. I was mostly pointing out that you're incorrectly computing that conditional probability because for one thing, the probability of that joint event has to be computed using the chain rule.
  • #85
  • Apr 15, 2017 9:47pm Apr 15, 2017 9:47pm
Quoting TGS
{quote} Similar to formal degrees or training programs, I think 5 years is essentially the length of time it takes to "graduate" from this informal training. The informal training being, learning how to trade in retail forex. With this in mind, I think most people are "employable" after 5 years (I'm meaning profitable) and if not, they could continue their studies further or change your field of study altogether. I'm writing in this context to point out similarities in that there are a lot of people in the regular world that change their path of...
That's absolutely true for me!
  • #86
  • Apr 15, 2017 10:52pm Apr 15, 2017 10:52pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} does having access to futures order book really help profitability? is there a study to compare % profitable rate among forex traders vs futures traders vs stock traders? if the failure rate is roughly the same across all markets, then the conclusion is that order book won't do swat to your trading. you can conclude that technical voodoo is as useful as reading order book in futures but, if there is strong evidence that futures trader have higher success rate, then i'd agree with what you're saying, we all should switch over.
If you can't logically think of the edges you could gain by being able to see orders coming in and out of the market then there is no sense in me trying to convince you. Your study would be flawed. There are so many different variables that would have to be accounted for... Are all Futures traders making decisions based on order flow from the DOM? Obviously not. There are many more things you would have to take into account to do a study like that.

Here... go read up on this guy. You can form your own beliefs.

  1. http://www.trading-naked.com/paul_rotter.htm
  2. http://www.trading-naked.com/library...er-monthly.pdf

  • #87
  • Apr 15, 2017 10:57pm Apr 15, 2017 10:57pm
Why not adopting the existing trading system and fine-tuned it. We have quite alot profitable system on FF. You can try and get one most suitable for you.
  • #88
  • Apr 16, 2017 1:06am Apr 16, 2017 1:06am
[Quoting IKeithStone
This is why technical analysis will kill you. A chart is nothing more than a graphical representation of where the price was in the PAST....]

[Quoting: lKeithStone
Here... go read up on this guy. You can form your own beliefs.]

More on forming your own beliefs ... here is another success story. Dan Zanger turned $10,775 into over $18,000,000 in under 2 years trading US stocks, using chart-patterns (which is just a small part of technical analysis).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Zanger
  • #89
  • Apr 16, 2017 1:10am Apr 16, 2017 1:10am
Quoting lKeithStone
This is why technical analysis will kill you. A chart is nothing more than a graphical representation of where the price was in the PAST. Just because the market stopped there before does not mean that it will do so again. Plus, why did it stop there in the past? Did it stop because some huge trader sold 10,000? Or was there very little volume driving the move? Was it 9:00a.m. or was it 2:45p.m.? Did a few hundred contracts cause a 10 point run? This is important to know. That number is more important if 10,000 traded there than if 500 traded there....
It's not because futures is different than forex that it's better...
More accurate would be to say that they are both crap in their own unique ways. (BTW Order Flow does leave a trace in forex also)
Just like in retail forex - "retail futures" is a net loser.
If one must trade, one must choose one's own poison.
  • #90
  • Apr 16, 2017 1:10am Apr 16, 2017 1:10am
Quoting lKeithStone
{quote} If you can't logically think of the edges you could gain by being able to see orders coming in and out of the market then there is no sense in me trying to convince you. Your study would be flawed. There are so many different variables that would have to be accounted for... Are all Futures traders making decisions based on order flow from the DOM? Obviously not. There are many more things you would have to take into account to do a study like that. Here... go read up on this guy. You can form your own beliefs. http://www.trading-naked.com/paul_rotter.htm...
Order flow can be and is faked. Read up on the SP500 flash crash trader. If anyone can place and cancel orders what value is it? There's also the fact that unlike stock index futures, FX futures are a tiny fraction of the spot market.
  • #91
  • Edited 3:33am Apr 16, 2017 1:29am | Edited 3:33am
Quoting freakout
something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all.
With respect, that's pretty ambitious. Those numbers are probably good enough to turn something like $500 into a life changing amount in a few months, assuming that you can hold your nerve and continue to execute consistently, as the account grows.

CrucialPoint (post #3) is right IMHO, it's not about quantity of knowledge, it's about having the right kind of knowledge and information (about how and why price moves the way that it does).

I can't comment about futures, as I've never traded them, but I think KeithStone does a decent job in articulating the limitations of TA in post #73. I'm not saying that you can't be profitable using TA; the trader who manages some money for me certainly does (more here).

I'm 10 years into forex now, and (albeit trading part time, and not so seriously that I risk bursting a blood vessel) I have winning weeks and losing weeks, playing with a small account. It's not an easy game.
  • #92
  • Apr 16, 2017 1:40am Apr 16, 2017 1:40am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Get it through your head demo trader. Trading live is not for everyone. It is brutal and unforgiving. OP was asking for a handout of a strategy with 50% win rate and 1:2 ratio. So many on FF want handouts, signals, EAs etc. If you cannot accept brutal feedback, like yourself, you should not be trading live and stay a demo trader for the rest of your life. You do not have any understanding of what it takes to be a winning live trader because your understanding is limited to demos. You have a demo mindset and demo experience. OP at least does...
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I think I gave you too much credit, you're really not very smart are you? I almost feel bad having said anything to you. Anyway, check back and visit my trade explorer in 3 months or so and I should be live after that point sometime.
  • #93
  • Apr 16, 2017 1:59am Apr 16, 2017 1:59am
What works for x doesn't necessarily work as well for y.
Each trader should add his 5th element to the formula.
Make it his own, lives it, love it, breath it.

Trading is one of the most demanding jobs, but people want it the easy way. No way.
This is no get-rich-quick business..
It requires hard work, continuous practicing, innovation, sleepless nights, 1000's of hours staring at the charts (while they form).

Nothing works well forever, and this is very true in trading.
Markets are dynamic and keep changing, and so should be our trading systems.- and our selves.
No guts, no glory
  • #94
  • Apr 16, 2017 2:03am Apr 16, 2017 2:03am
Confidence!

You must believe every trade you made is RIGHT!
No stop losses!
There are people watching what you are doing and they are trying to punk you out of your money in real time.
Think of it as a game of chicken. Whoever flinches first, tastes the fear and GIVES AWAY their money from fear, loses.

Become a psychopath!
You must know you can beat the person on the other side of the trade.

The hardest part to get over is being stuck in a position after a break-out in the other direction.
Are you going to fold or wait for the break-out to end and double down?

I don't have any of these traits so I learned how to program and back test my strategies and let the EA handle the fear/anxiety for me.
I don't even run it on my computer. Got a free year of AWS and run it from there.
  • #95
  • Apr 16, 2017 3:55am Apr 16, 2017 3:55am
Quoting thodie
{quote} this is bullshit from a coders point of view... 99% of the strategies fail in the long run and dont make consistent money when coded strict to stick with the rules.
i understand; a coder has got to work.

from a trader's point of view though, everything else is the real bs.

Happy Easter

TRT
  • #96
  • Edited 8:07am Apr 16, 2017 3:56am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting abokwaik
What works for x doesn't necessarily work as well for y. Each trader should add his 5th element to the formula. Make it his own, lives it, love it, breath it. Trading is one of the most demanding jobs, but people want it the easy way. No way. This is no get-rich-quick business.. It requires hard work, continuous practicing, innovation, sleepless nights, 1000's of hours staring at the charts (while they form). Nothing works well forever, and this is very true in trading. Markets are dynamic and keep changing, and so should be our trading systems.-...

this thing i am gonna say it for the 1st time all what u said khalil is totally true but what if i told u that i do have this
and i am trading it for years now and it still going and happening every day
its true the market is dynamic its true its sensitive but what most do forget is , market also have borders and limits to move in
if u manage to know this limitation ull have a very clear view where price and how the price move nothing is impossible but u got to look at the bigger picture at the end
i have started a thread to talk about this and tried to keep it going as much as i can but when i notes that ppl not asking and not trying
to understand how this stuff works i shut it down and i am now just watching every one from far
Senior Trader Multi-Account Manager
  • #97
  • Apr 16, 2017 6:12am Apr 16, 2017 6:12am
Quoting lorix
{quote} this thing i am gonna say it for the 1st time all what u said khalil is totally true but what if i told u that i do have this and i am trading it for years now and it still going and happening every day its true the market is dynamic its true its sensitive but what most do forget is , market also have borders and limits to move in if u manage to know this limitation ull have a very clear view where price and how the price move nothing is impossible but u got to look at the bigger picture at the end i have started a thread to talk about this...
Hi Lorix,

Could you please elaborate more about Market having borders and limits. What characteristic of the market lends itself to this kind of behavior?

Thanks
  • #98
  • Apr 16, 2017 6:25am Apr 16, 2017 6:25am
Quoting hanover
{quote} With respect, that's pretty ambitious. Those numbers are probably good enough to turn something like $500 into a life changing amount in a few months
Let's do the maths. He has 2707 in his trading account now. An average of 4 trades a day, risking 2% on each trade with 2 winners and 2 losers at 1:2 risk:reward gives him a return of about 4% a day (2 wins of 4% = 8% and then subtract the 2 losses of 2% = 4%). Assuming 20 trading days a month he would turn his 2707 into 299,563.55 in 6 months and over 33 million in a year. In 4 years he would easily be the richest man in the world. Pretty ambitious indeed.
  • #99
  • Apr 16, 2017 6:46am Apr 16, 2017 6:46am
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
A good trade management and always trading under risk is the only key. applying both these thing with any trading system should work for you in a long run. understand how your brain understand systems work around it and take decision. Life is too short to waste on anything less then this.
In the court of lord, only love and devotion is counted...
  • #100
  • Apr 16, 2017 6:55am Apr 16, 2017 6:55am
Quoting lorix
{quote} this thing i am gonna say it for the 1st time all what u said khalil is totally true but what if i told u that i do have this and i am trading it for years now and it still going and happening every day ...
I believe you Issam. It still going because you made it "yours", you feed it, cherish it and believe in it.
We must meet, summer maybe ?
No guts, no glory
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