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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #65,221
  • Apr 14, 2017 9:50am Apr 14, 2017 9:50am
Quoting WhiteMouseFX
{quote} Yep! It seems to be a journey to 105.30. I would suggest the bulls turn the screen upside down and trade it for a while. It's a good opportunity.
  • #65,222
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:17am Apr 14, 2017 11:17am
Maybe there will be a reaction to 200 daily ma?
Charts: XAUUSD/UJ/EU. Tools: stoch/daily pivots/fibo/channels. Scalper.
  • #65,223
  • Apr 14, 2017 11:57am Apr 14, 2017 11:57am
Quoting narafa
I am already short USD/JPY a day ago at 112.92...Don't think that it will push further in the retracement.. Thanks, Nader
I see usdjpy going further to the downside atleast to the 107.000
  • #65,224
  • Apr 14, 2017 1:06pm Apr 14, 2017 1:06pm
USD/JPY finally fell to 108.50. I think it will rebound from this level or from 108.30 and climb back to 109.50 - 109.60.
  • #65,225
  • Apr 14, 2017 8:43pm Apr 14, 2017 8:43pm
Quoting ThreeHalf
And we're now below 109. Cheers.
Hai, Threehalf. I am looking for a reply and finally found it. Hoping not wrong.

Yes. Actually USDJPY in major uptrend now and in the progress of correction in the intermediate term. My view of course as a swing trader and still sure it will go to above 110.00 in couple days. But it is just an analyst anyway. Meanwhile I saw the bear is tired now and there is a signal the trend will change. What we saw 13 April @4 until 13 april @16.00 is the phenomenon the bull trying to dominate but then stop @109.386 and went back to 108.618. But as you can see, it stops exactly at the support trendline. Once again it makes the support valid. In technical ways, USDJPY have to pass 109.386 to make sure it is going to show shortterm bullish.

Meanwhile strong support is 108.000 and strong resistance 111.500. In 2-3 weeks, i think it will go there.

But frankly, i am familiar with stocks. And forex for me i still need adaptation. So, nice to see you all. Let grow together.
  • #65,226
  • Apr 15, 2017 4:46am Apr 15, 2017 4:46am
USDJPY
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We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #65,227
  • Apr 15, 2017 4:59am Apr 15, 2017 4:59am
Quoting SantoTrader
{quote} Hai, Threehalf. I am looking for a reply and finally found it. Hoping not wrong. Yes. Actually USDJPY in major uptrend now and in the progress of correction in the intermediate term. My view of course as a swing trader and still sure it will go to above 110.00 in couple days. But it is just an analyst anyway. Meanwhile I saw the bear is tired now and there is a signal the trend will change. What we saw 13 April @4 until 13 april @16.00 is the phenomenon the bull trying to dominate but then stop @109.386 and went back to 108.618. But as you...
Hi SantoTrader.

I agree with you that perhaps the bears are tired. The intended target to test/breach was 108.30, which did not happened. 108.50 is not a line of defence and pretty meaningless.

I closed my shorts from 109.09 at 108.93; a major pity, but I'm happy. Didn't want to risk my daily target from news/data. In fact, the downwards move could be attributed to news/data, which means bears' strength was weakening. The lowest it went before data was 108.81-not exactly a very strong performance by the bears.

As long as 108.30 wasn't breached, the channel for a possibility of a rebound back to 110 remains intact. However, we have many fundamental/news reasons as to why it won't happen.

I'm still skeptical about the strength of USD, so my trade ideas will still include selling USD rallies.

Just my two pips.
  • #65,228
  • Apr 15, 2017 5:16am Apr 15, 2017 5:16am
You should keep in mind that Friday only small volume was traded and besides techncial analysis you don't know what this crazy dude in North Korea is doing. If he's is doing another test i would not expect that yen would stay this strong or at least will be stronger than us dollar. So even if it looks for a downtrend, i'm prepared to go long.
  • #65,229
  • Apr 15, 2017 7:44am Apr 15, 2017 7:44am
Are you expecting a negative opening after the last news?
  • #65,230
  • Apr 15, 2017 10:42am Apr 15, 2017 10:42am
Quoting Ryan420
{quote} Saw similar. Long @ 108.87. Great R:R ratio Fundamentals for uptrend still intact. Syria conflict and Trump verbal intervention dumped on the FX pair with one of the largest groups of speculative Longs.
How did you decide to go long on that one? I never get in on wedges like this, they don't seem to have any directional bias. I was waiting to see if it would fakeout to the upside and continue with the short-term downtrend.
  • #65,231
  • Apr 15, 2017 11:10am Apr 15, 2017 11:10am
i think we still have to close a gap in 14.11.2016 and another one on 07.11.2016

this thought because i think the wicks dont close the gap
  • #65,232
  • Apr 15, 2017 12:12pm Apr 15, 2017 12:12pm
One thing i know forex likes extremes and we only go get a support when that extreme will happen.
  • #65,233
  • Apr 16, 2017 6:37am Apr 16, 2017 6:37am
With the DXY bouncing off the 61.8 Fibonacci level on the multiyear chart, I think we have reasons to short the US dollar. I have been shorting USDJPY over the past weeks. Here's a good setup!
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  • #65,234
  • Apr 16, 2017 9:01am Apr 16, 2017 9:01am
easy money on this pair

all the boobs getting stopped out for going long
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #65,235
  • Apr 16, 2017 9:08am Apr 16, 2017 9:08am
Quoting MrPresident
easy money on this pair all the boobs getting stopped out for going long
No need to get too cocky, pal.
  • #65,236
  • Apr 16, 2017 9:19am Apr 16, 2017 9:19am
Quoting ThreeHalf
{quote} No need to get too cocky, pal.
i love it, can't help myself

the algorithm to follow is this

1. wait for it to rally
2. wait for it to stall
3. enter a short position with stop above the next major resistance level and watch the boobs get stopped out from random volatility
4. make money as it starts to fall
5. repeat

avoid the lower time frame charts as they don't show the major support and resistance levels
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #65,237
  • Apr 16, 2017 9:34am Apr 16, 2017 9:34am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} i love it, can't help myself the algorithm to follow is this 1. wait for it to rally 2. wait for it to stall 3. enter a short position with stop above the next major resistance level and watch the boobs get stopped out from random volatility 4. make money as it starts to fall 5. repeat avoid the lower time frame charts as they don't show the major support and resistance levels
You know, there was a time when the USD bulls were saying something like this too (change rally to dips, short to long).
  • #65,238
  • Apr 16, 2017 9:40am Apr 16, 2017 9:40am
Quoting ThreeHalf
{quote} You know, there was a time when the USD bulls were saying something like this too (change rally to dips, short to long).
now there is risk aversion and economic uncertainty so the pressure is to keep the USD/JPY pair down

all the speculators and large funds are short the JPY compared to the smart money commercials

the smart money commercials hedge their positions because they have a better understanding of the business that they operate in and the economic fundamentals compared to the gamblers
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Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #65,239
  • Apr 16, 2017 9:47am Apr 16, 2017 9:47am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} now there is risk aversion and economic uncertainty so the pressure is to keep the USD/JPY pair down all the speculators and large funds are short the JPY compared to the smart money commercials the smart money commercials hedge their positions because they have a better understanding of the business that they operate in and the economic fundamentals compared to the gamblers {image}
you are missing my point.
  • #65,240
  • Apr 16, 2017 10:54am Apr 16, 2017 10:54am
anyone know which broker already opened the market? i wanna see what is the current rate of this pair right now
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