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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,381
  • Apr 6, 2017 12:04pm Apr 6, 2017 12:04pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Perhaps this one you think about. I have seen it in different variants: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3156 Is absolutely something in it. ( BTW I did not register account on Forexfactory before I was 1 1/2 year in to my forex eductaion ) Still learning and developing my skills but start to feel like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSuB4t3q_dA from this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRGJDb-30C8
Yes pretty good. And thing to remember, post/thread like that only got 12 pages, anyone following the path reading it might get bumped on upside, and on other hand FX Tyrants of forums will rule on popularity and sink the bad approaches to majority of traders, becouse initially everyone is seeking for that easy 1 second per day 100 bucks. Hopefully Musks Neurolink might solve such problems by directly accessing thought process and stoping the bad habbits before executed and speeding the learning curve by unimaginable.
  • #149,382
  • Edited 12:29pm Apr 6, 2017 12:13pm | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting goosebone
Tried reading the Minutes. .... Provided that the economy continued to perform about as expected, most participants anticipated that gradual increases in the federal funds rate would continue and judged that a change to the Committee's reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year...

Very good. Well done.

Just the fact of reading the report details (this one is one of the key and widely available reports thats is accesible for all) instead of thinking this news only affect the next dozen 5 minutes bars and then is forgoten will put you on a whole different league of the majority around here. Two thumbs up !!!

To your comments:

 

  1. These reports seem very dense and complicate (they kind of are in you dig in the details) but after a few of them you will see that 90% of the content doesn't really change. What I mean is if you keep tracking them, after 3 or 4 you will be able to almost automatically recognise what is changing and what to track. For example inflation actual vs forecast and tone in the wording, etc ...at the end is not as much as you think it is (for trading and macro analysis only ...if you want to really dig in the macroeconomic front thats i a whole different beast but you wont want to do that at this stage and for actual trading).

  1. With that in mind, the only part the 'usual suspects' (CNBC and Co in W Street) are having a mini tantrum because they want to ride free QE, negative rates, subsidies, lower wages, no public healthcare cost, protectionism, weaker dollar, tariffs, etc etc etc etc and all at the same time regardless of the actual needs and technical realities in the macroeconomic, monetary, fiscal and even social (not going in details here) side. Textbook of have your cake and eat it too, even if there is no even cake or if there is one cake for 1 million others....

  1. As you well pointed out. 90% the minutes are 100% inline with expectations on all important fronts: inflation, employment, rates and macro outlooks but they are just making a bigger deal than it actual is on"....change to the Committee's reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year" just to put some pressure on the FED to keep 'feeding the pig or else' which is completely out of scope with the current US numbers and circumstances.

--> In simple words, No shit, 10 years of free money, low rates and Q1/Q2/Q3 what else? Can you honestly think they are surprise that the FED sooner or later is going to start unwinding holding. I mean WTF?

The point I want to make and it may sound a bit complex given that you are just starting to explore these reports. The FED (ECB or etc) is a technocratic institutions (sure there are politics like everywhere else in life), read reports as actual technical facts and figures. Those 99.99% of the time will be the overriding force at the end.

--> However, as you probably know there is lots of $$$$$$ implications involved in these decisions so you need to understand that you will get a flood of bias (for their own interest) financial media outlets and expert talking heads that will push their agenda and positions favouring or criticising specific decisions. These forces affect perception and even short term markets reaction some times but not necessarily reflect what they know, neither what the actual FED in this case is saying.

Give it a try in the next few main reports (sometimes they are just uneventful or everybody is agree so). For example tomorrow NFP. Just track headline number and earnings. Go to the the actual report and read it yourself. That will be a fact no interpretations. Then check CNBC talking heads during the closing sessions, compare with Bloomberg and put against one or two other more objective views in the FT, etc.... You will be surprise what you can find with 15 minutes of effort...

At the end, use the actual technical/non bias/ information as your starting base, only then start reading the reaction in markets and media outlets ....Like in charts, you will start recognising patterns and you will start seeing Who is Who, Why and Who is benefiting....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,383
  • Apr 6, 2017 12:27pm Apr 6, 2017 12:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} For example tomorrow NFP. Just track headline number and earnings. Go to the the actual report and read it yourself. That will be a fact no interpretations. Then check CNBC talking heads during the closing sessions, compare with Bloomberg and put on or two more objective views in the FT, etc.... You will be surprise what you can find with 15 minutes of effort... At the end, use the actual technical/non bias/ information as your starting base, only then start reading the reaction in markets and media outlets ....Like in charts, you will start...
Thanks. Good idea. Will do that tomorrow.

Quote
90% the minutes are 100% inline with expectations on all important fronts: inflation, employment, rates and macro outlooks but they are just making a bigger deal than it actual is on"....change to the Committee's reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year" just to put some pressure on the FED to keep 'feeding the pig or else' which is completely out of scope with the current US numbers and circumstances.
Interesting. Guess filtering all news with skepticism and starting with an understanding of the actual facts in addition to everyone's motives is the right way to read it, financial news being no exception. I think i've been mostly naive to that when it comes to market news and opinion. Eye opener. Appreciate it.
  • #149,384
  • Apr 6, 2017 12:44pm Apr 6, 2017 12:44pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Thanks. Good idea. Will do that tomorrow. {quote} Interesting. Guess filtering all news with skepticism and starting with an understanding of the actual facts in addition to everyone's motives is the right way to read it, financial news being no exception. I think i've been mostly naive to that when it comes to market news and opinion. Eye opener. Appreciate it.
YW.

If you want a rather very light but fun and surprisingly [sometimes] not that far from reality in some aspects, I recommend you to watch 'Billions' (http://www.sho.com/billions).

One of the latest episodes called 'currency' is strangely very relevant for the conversation....whatever the case, I am sure you will enjoy it as its very well done and they have done their research properly with some great one liners and phrases like "Being Right but Being Early Simply Means That You Are Wrong' , etc etc ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,385
  • Apr 6, 2017 12:57pm Apr 6, 2017 12:57pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} YW. If you want a rather very light but fun and surprisingly [sometimes] not that far from reality in some aspects, I recommend you to watch 'Billions' (http://www.sho.com/billions). One of the latest episodes called 'currency' is strangely very relevant for the conversation....whatever the case, I am sure you will enjoy it as its very well done and they have done their research properly with some great one liners and phrases like "Being Right but Being Early Simply Means That You Are Wrong' , etc etc .... sisse
Great show. Acting and writing both brilliant. Haven't seen any of the newer season yet. I'll get it.
  • #149,386
  • Apr 6, 2017 1:28pm Apr 6, 2017 1:28pm
All this reading is quickly turning into a full time job lol
  • #149,387
  • Apr 6, 2017 1:44pm Apr 6, 2017 1:44pm
...a 'misleading' very dull day across most markets. Equities in standby, Currencies in comatose action all week long but Commodities (led by Oil)on the move.

-> Lots of noise from the FED minutes yesterday and ECB talking heads all over the place regarding balance sheet and tapering. Some laggers and serial addicts on free money and training wheels from CB realising that is nowhere to hide for much longer with very strong numbers coming from all fronts and inflation on track.

-> However, the most important highlight come from risk/war front. Trump lasted 1 Quarter and May a few months longer but we are aligning for War (which was more than widely anticipated since last year elections). Risk odds for a fresh war/conflict increasing to the highest since the Afghan conflict. Still we need Trump 'blessing/Tweet' that can come as soon as China headlines are out of the way ....

Coincidentally or not, OIL triggering a strong daily 'Close' play that can transform in a very powerful triple play tomorrow (M [check]/W/D [check]). For those holding positions from the $49.xx handle is time to sit tight, in case of failure, and keep (re)loading as a break can give us a 'golden ticket' ...

On the Euro, we haven't move all week long. Rolling slightly bearish for NFP...expecting a very strong opening in Equities for the European session tomorrow with all eyes on DAX taking ATH and beyond ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,388
  • Apr 6, 2017 2:23pm Apr 6, 2017 2:23pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} YW. If you want a rather very light but fun and surprisingly [sometimes] not that far from reality in some aspects, I recommend you to watch 'Billions' (http://www.sho.com/billions). One of the latest episodes called 'currency' is strangely very relevant for the conversation....whatever the case, I am sure you will enjoy it as its very well done and they have done their research properly with some great one liners and phrases like "Being Right but Being Early Simply Means That You Are Wrong' , etc etc .... sisse
That show is so niche that trader can see why it gets so little attention overall and from other hand so effing brilliant that one can see layers why its amazing for someone with trading experiance.
Shorting front end of move is fine as long as one cuts loses quick, on back side you have "confirmation" and market bias along one thinks thats go along of few episodes.
The larger the hands the quicker they need to be on taking the flow might be take of it, thats why its no surprise if one takes few hunderd years of history and the largest events are pre shorted by largest hands on the tipity top.
  • #149,389
  • Apr 6, 2017 4:09pm Apr 6, 2017 4:09pm
Donald Trump is angry. He saw it on Fox News, those poor Syrian babies choking on Sarin. It's the Central Park 5 all over again. Time to take Assad out. Watch out, Putin. Steve Bannon whispered, "It's Mossad, dumbass..." and he was demoted. Time to raise cash, if you got any left. I will be trapping the vol spike when the bombing runs start......

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,390
  • Apr 6, 2017 5:12pm Apr 6, 2017 5:12pm
Damnit Sisse. Now I've got a subscription to Showtime and I'm 3 episodes in....wont be sleeping tonight.
  • #149,391
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:18pm Apr 6, 2017 6:18pm
Quoting The Fool
Donald Trump is angry. He saw it on Fox News, those poor Syrian babies choking on Sarin. It's the Central Park 5 all over again. Time to take Assad out. Watch out, Putin. Steve Bannon whispered, "It's Mossad, dumbass..." and he was demoted. Time to raise cash, if you got any left. I will be trapping the vol spike when the bombing runs start...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQUXuQ6Zd9w
US missiles fired on Syrian airfield just now.
  • #149,392
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:22pm Apr 6, 2017 6:22pm
Watching UJ....
  • #149,393
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:28pm Apr 6, 2017 6:28pm
RISK OFF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-04-06_1827ES.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,394
  • Edited 6:53pm Apr 6, 2017 6:31pm | Edited 6:53pm
These missiles are a sent signal more than anything. New Sherriff narrative.
Im betting the snowball doesn't get smaller from here though.
Gold up, oil up, stocks down, yen moving. Interesting euro/us open coming tomorrow. Small initial reaction so far.
  • #149,395
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:46pm Apr 6, 2017 6:46pm
r is it wag the dog time?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,396
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:51pm Apr 6, 2017 6:51pm
This is DT welcome message to Mr Xi, period.
  • #149,397
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:55pm Apr 6, 2017 6:55pm
Quoting AstroStudent
This is DT welcome message to Mr Xi, period.
You dont think DT called Putin and told him. "we have to do it, to fool my people. i got pressure coming down on our election agreement. clear all your men out and we will attack that old airport. let me know when its clear"?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,398
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:56pm Apr 6, 2017 6:56pm
Maybe so- you thinking bombing Putin would be much better??
  • #149,399
  • Apr 6, 2017 6:57pm Apr 6, 2017 6:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You dont think he called Putin and told him. "we have to do it, to fool my people. i got pressure coming down on our election agreement. clear all your men out and we will attack that old airport. let me know when its clear"?
I sincerely believed what you stated. Together they are aiming to be the first trillionaire.
  • #149,400
  • Apr 6, 2017 7:02pm Apr 6, 2017 7:02pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Maybe so- you thinking bombing Putin would be much better??
probably should have done it in 1945. i may not be here if we did (one of the liberators was my dad). it sure would have made the last last 70 yrs of proxy wars less likely.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2343...robert-orlando
"
In early May 1945, as the Allies shut down the Nazi war machine, Patton stood with his massive 3rd Army on the outskirts of Prague in a potential face off with the Red Army. He pleaded for General Eisenhower’s green light to advance and capture the city for the Allies, which also would have meant containment of the Russians. British Prime Minister Churchill also thought the move a crucial and beneficial one for post-war Europe and insisted upon it, but to no avail. Eisenhower denied Patton’s request, and the Russians took the region, which would pay dearly for years to come. Earlier that year, at the February conference in Yalta, President Roosevelt, with Churchill at his side, extended the hand of friendship to “Uncle Joe” Stalin and signed his Faustian pact. In so doing, the destiny of millions was reduced to mass starvation, blood revenge, and distant gulags. At the time, Patton understood the tragedy of this event and wrote, “We promised the Europeans freedom. It would be worse than dishonorable not to see that they have it. This might mean war with the Russians, but what of it?”
Berlin also was given to Stalin’s Army as red meat to feed the dictator’s appetite for killing Germans. To some, including Patton, this was an unnecessary and devastating concession. In late April 1945, Patton claimed he could take Berlin in just “two days,” an assessment shared by the commander of the 9th Army, General William H. Simpson. As with Prague, Patton’s request to secure Berlin was denied. Sadly, after Patton finally reached the ravaged city, he wrote his wife on July 21, 1945, " for the first week after they took it (Berlin), all women who ran were shot and those who did not were raped. I could have taken it (instead of the Soviets) had I been allowed.""
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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