The Really Useless Thread

st atm.. 0666/0689 may be a place to consider a short. with a 0690 stop.. the time to start looking is now, st only for me.. looking to long 0585/0340

took it at 0669.. less than the 100 pips i normally wait for.

the brits did it right..

What brings about this HUGE change, we have all seen you missing a trade by 4 pips and subsequently missing out on 500 pips. What made you change your plan. Dont know anyone more desciplined than you.

i saw a little scalp. i am not often around to catch one. and even if i do. i dont often post them. i just by chance was up. i was really going to wait to see if 0685 was getting a visit. it didnt happen yesterday. those 500 pip ones are rare and far between.. if one plays those strictly, its not a bad living over years of set and forget pending trades.

if you want to attempt a needle thread, buy eu at 0342 with a 0339 stop and target 1.13xx

Good read.

[quote=gatorinla;9741665]{quote} i saw a little scalp. i am not often around to catch one. and even if i do. i dont often post them. i just by chance was up. i
Hahahaha that would be a trade i would tell my grandkids about. Thanks for the reply.☺

Hey gatorinla what's your short/mid/long term view for EU...

[quote=NMZee;9741772] its the same trade from 0585 to 0340. the only difference is at 0585, if you're using 0339 as a sl. the trade is smaller.

option one
lets use 1% as an example. you long 0585 and the trade goes bad. it hits 0339 and you're stopped out. you lose 1 %.

or the trade went well to 1.13xx and u made 4%..

option two
in another example you bought with the same 1% risk at 0342. a bad trade and you still lose 1%.

or the trade goes well to 1.13 and you made 250%

i started the year using option 2. in option 2 i move my stops to lock in green. so it gives me another option 3.

clearly 0340 was tested at least once as support. some bounce has a decent chance for a s/l to get green

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...enger-job-cuts

United States Challenger Job Cuts 1994-2017 | Data | Chart | Calendar
The pace of downsizing increased in March of 2017 as U.S.-based employers announced plans to shed 43,310 workers from payrolls, up 17 percent from February. Telecommunications (7,768), Education (4,375), Retail (4,084), Industrial Goods (3,947) and Health Care/Products (3,935) shed most jobs. Year-on-year, planned job cuts fell 2 percent in March. So far this year, employers have announced 126,201 job cuts, 38 percent higher than the 91,303 cuts announced in the fourth quarter of 2016 but 30 percent lower than the same period last year when 180,920 cuts were announced. Retail leads all sectors this year with 38,464 announced cuts. For the quarter, companies announced 289,272 new positions, the bulk of which were announced by retailers. Last quarters total is the highest first quarter total on record, and the highest quarterly total except for third quarter totals when holiday hiring plans are typically announced. Challenger Job Cuts in the United States averaged 66814.62 Persons from 1994 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 248475 Persons in January of 2002 and a record low of 15100 Persons in June of 1997.

For those interested in digging deeper in proper FA, I would highly recommend reading in detail both the FED minutes but richer in content ECB meeting accounts.

In a nutshell we are only tracking inflation in both sides of the Atlantic for the foreseeable future ....

Dull session, with Euro in comatose action after the opening. Expecting NY to bring some action across the board that will carry for the next few sessions.... until then nothing to do but same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse

Important movers and shakers coming from Sterling* , BOE to end corporate bond buying especially with macro numbers still holding and inflation entering in full motion.

We are setting for free money end first, rate hikes after. Both are v ery bullish but we have Dollar in play and Brexit jitters. Expecting a huge increase in volatility with monetary policy to prime short term and macro and risk in the mid and long-term.

Reconfirming all Sterling * outlooks in perfect synch with this so far...

sisse

"Hold my Beer While I Meet Xi" gets my vote for headline of the day.

Trump is a mover, not a shaker

EU looks super heavy. Hopefully will break down today. has not even set a D1 swing low yet - so the floor is glass floor

Glass floor with one major and one minor crack ... Just needed the flow of water to break it ....

...or the floor is becoming a stone floor . it's a matter of perspective

I hope it breaks the range already . thankfully , plenty of sunchine outside so I get out of the cave so often .

Day pretty much over nothing to see until nfp ....

[quote=gatorinla;9741815] Pending buy limit set at 0339.

Tried reading the Minutes. Akin to a fourth grader trying to translate the Dead Sea Scrolls but here's what I got;

---Just noticed this one sentence on the balance sheet subject as it stands out as the only hawk scented line in there and might be the one to watch change meeting to meeting:

"Consistent with the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans, nearly all participants preferred that the timing of a change in reinvestment policy depend on an assessment of economic and financial conditions. Several participants indicated that the timing should be based on a quantitative threshold or trigger tied to the target range for the federal funds rate. Some other participants expressed the view that the timing should depend on a qualitative judgment about economic and financial conditions. Such a judgment would importantly encompass an assessment by the Committee of the risks to the outlook, including the degree of confidence that evolving circumstances would not soon require a reversal in the direction of policy. Taking these considerations into account, policymakers discussed the likely level of the federal funds rate when a change in the Committee's reinvestment policy would be appropriate. Provided that the economy continued to perform about as expected, most participants anticipated that gradual increases in the federal funds rate would continue and judged that a change to the Committee's reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year. Many participants emphasized that reducing the size of the balance sheet should be conducted in a passive and predictable manner. Some participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate for the Committee to restart reinvestments if the economy encountered significant adverse shocks that required a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate."


---On to inflation. Some notable lines follow:

"The 12-month change in consumer prices moved up in recent months and was close to the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent; excluding food and energy prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent."

^^^^Not really notable per se, but reminds you Fed watches core inflation.

"Total U.S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased a little less than 2 percent over the 12 months ending in January. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes changes in food and energy prices, was 1-3/4 percent over those same 12 months, held down in part by decreases in the prices of nonenergy imports over part of this period. Over the 12 months ending in February, total consumer prices as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2-3/4 percent, while core CPI inflation was 2-1/4 percent. The medians of survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations--such as those from the Michigan survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Desk's Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants--were little changed, on balance, in recent months."

^^^^^So inline to slightly below target is the read on core inflation. This represents no real change over the past 12 months. Decreases in imports helped to make that result (watch for a politician near you to use that statistic to boast shrinking trade deficits).

"Nominal Treasury yields increased over the intermeeting period, particularly for shorter maturities. Treasury yields reacted only modestly over most of the period to domestic economic data releases that were reportedly seen as a little stronger than expected on balance. Yields on longer-dated Treasury securities rose late in the period following comments by Federal Reserve officials. Measures of inflation compensation based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities were little changed, on net, since the February FOMC meeting."

^^^^Here's what i think is the reflexivity section where they work themselves into the analysis. Leads to chicken and egg debates better left for philosophers. Section goes on to describe equities markets, bonds, emerging markets, their reactions to Fedspeak etc. (i never knew how in depth they got, P/E ratios? Detailed.) but I bolded the one sentence for its relevance to inflation expectations. I'll post the 10 year breakeven chart below because I believe thats the referenced statistic but if anyone knows that to be wrong please mention it. I understand it to be a read on how (certain) financial markets are pricing in future inflation. Looks flat in the ST, toppish in the MT/LT.

Anyway, That's what I got out of it. Not my forte so if you guys see Ive misread something, barely scratched the surface or failed to notice any elephants in the room, let me know. I also don't know enough about economics to put a general read on all of it, I suppose that could be as simple as bullish or bearish dollar in terms of inflation, or as advanced as a full blown inflation projection of some kind. My guess is though, with the data and analysis presented here in the minutes, it would be tough to pick a side or conjure up some projection based on the mostly sideways trends. Seems like the key would be to match your analysis of this data with your analysis of ECB data in the same area, and put together an inflation based analysis of the pair that way. No way I'm gonna try that just yet. Just wanted to post a first effort at grasping some of the inflation language in the minutes.