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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,321
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:03am Apr 5, 2017 11:03am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} If my understanding of "normalization" is correct, I think hiking interest rate is no more at the driving seat, but inflation. Hence, I think the importance of the minutes is the language around inflation.
Exactly. Hikes and normalization is already in play. Full employment check, macro numbers check.....That's will slowly become the more important to track from now forward.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,322
  • Edited 11:21am Apr 5, 2017 11:10am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Exactly. Hikes and normalization is already in play. Full employment check, macro numbers check.....That's will slowly become the more important to track from now forward. sisse
One would track that with FOMC Minutes outside of its effect on interest rates?
  • #149,323
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:40am Apr 5, 2017 11:40am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} One would track that with FOMC Minutes outside of its effect on interest rates?
Very little in play for today. Expecting nothing in all fronts. Tangentially tracking reference to inflation but is after hikes minutes so all is pretty much done, said and settle...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,324
  • Apr 5, 2017 11:53am Apr 5, 2017 11:53am
Ok I can see where I got mixed up there. Thanks all for playing 20 questions.
  • #149,325
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:19pm Apr 5, 2017 12:19pm
That was pretty much it for the day. Eyes on the Minutes with very little in play. Inline equals hawkish FED with 3 hikes this year, upbeat macro numbers and warnings on inflation ....anything else (not really expected at all) will be a hawkish surprise rather than dovish ...

Very simple flows today in play so who wants to jump and call the map and flow for the FOMC / NFP combo?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,326
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:30pm Apr 5, 2017 12:30pm
Very shy board so lets invite @primejarvis to be the one to walk us thought this week flows ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,327
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:51pm Apr 5, 2017 12:51pm
Thankx 4 inviting me ...
About the flow I would not recommend any1 to jump in because both sides are in play either let it go ...
1.074x still in my book with max extention to 1.079x and on the other side which we know it from a very long time .... Breach of 1.063x or Test of atleast 1.048x .... With a very hawkish tone....
Those who are in sit tight ...
I am not taking any new entries ... We are sitting on the flip zone ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,328
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:52pm Apr 5, 2017 12:52pm
Inline: .064x to .058x to .073x (set up for NFP)

Since no one jumped in, I will be the fool.

Hawkish surprise: .064x to .058x (intermediate stop) to .048x. By NFP.

Just a guess since we have a few more sessions to chop around with nothing to move market unless we get a surprise.
  • #149,329
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:57pm Apr 5, 2017 12:57pm
Quoting primejarvis
Thankx 4 inviting me ... About the flow I would not recommend any1 to jump in because both sides are in play either let it go ... 1.074x still in my book with max extention to 1.079x and on the other side which we know it from a very long time .... Breach of 1.063x or Test of atleast 1.048x .... With a very hawkish tone.... Those who are in sit tight ... I am not taking any new entries
Very Good thanks ...just get rid of this "About the flow I would not recommend any1 to jump in because both sides are in play either let it go ..." ... it makes you sound full of doubts.... ...so let me rephrase it from your previous posts

-> Direct Short 1.063x-> to clean the 1.050x handle with hawkish FED and NFP
-> Direct retrace 1.064x -> 1.079x with a flop in FED and NFP.

GL all already trading, planing to trade or simple waiting for new data .... plays extends to NFP...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,330
  • Edited 1:23pm Apr 5, 2017 12:58pm | Edited 1:23pm
Hawkish breaks 630- to rest around 610 for nfp.
Nonevent (expected) bounces around 630 to 688.
Dovish breaks 688 to play with 701/730 then rests at 688/701 for nfp.

Flop nfp: Up from wherever she sits to test 730.
If its from 688/701 I say 730 dont hold and test 830/870 area.
Inline nfp: chop 700/600
Overshoot nfp: a drop thru 560 to test 490
  • #149,331
  • Apr 5, 2017 1:06pm Apr 5, 2017 1:06pm
Inline/nothing new on the monetary policy front.... Balance Sheet blah blah starting to pick some noise levels. We are getting a crystal clear picture on what is cooking for Q3/Q4 2017 in the currency board.

On the short term, nothing new as expected. Good macro numbers, inflation in check and 2 more hikes on track ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,332
  • Apr 5, 2017 1:12pm Apr 5, 2017 1:12pm
Thankx 4 the reconstructing the last post ... I will take it into consideration for future posts ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,333
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:33pm Apr 5, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting sisse
Balance Sheet blah blah starting to pick some noise levels.
spoos took a 20pt dump (& counting) on the back of balance sheet and "stocks too high" comments...btfd...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149,334
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:45pm Apr 5, 2017 2:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}spoos took a 20pt dump (& counting) on the back of balance sheet and "stocks too high" comments...btfd...
Indeed.

I was about to wrap up on the nothingness of the impact in Dollar as widely expected but more importantly Equities and Treasuries showing us a small window into the future.

The just hint of FED cutting the easy sugar supply is sending some structural shockwaves across market. I think we just witnessing what is cooking from Q3 onwards. Summer FED just become very very interesting. We are aligning for a double play (ECB/FED) in June/July, expecting Taper Tantrum picking up speed in the upcoming weeks...

Bookmarking and putting a key note on fundamental charts today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,335
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:48pm Apr 5, 2017 2:48pm
maybe i can long later this week on a knee jerk nfp or fomc delayed response. not long till 0585 or less
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,336
  • Apr 5, 2017 2:56pm Apr 5, 2017 2:56pm
hmmmm,, could line up with uj drop
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,337
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:12pm Apr 5, 2017 3:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}spoos took a 20pt dump (& counting) on the back of balance sheet and "stocks too high" comments...btfd...
that did seem like an off color remark to me as well, coming from the FED that says they don't take their ques from the stock market
  • #149,338
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:15pm Apr 5, 2017 3:15pm
Quoting goosebone
Seems Le Pen did not have a great show last debate. Uncertainty still keeps a lid on *Euro reaction to her as political risk. But pressure is building underneath i would think. Maybe a first round surprise releases it? @replicant, @ganmasse Am I reading it right on the politics? Not sure how big a thing the debate polling/reaction is in the larger scope. I am thinking dovish minutes is a decent possibility today. There were high market expectations going into the meeting. I recall some hyperbolic talk of 4 hikes that vaporized immediately on the...
It was an uneventful debate. Don't pay attention to debate polls. Irrelevant.


Le Pen will be at 99% at the second round, the opposite would be a huge surprise.

  1. A second round between her and Macron is very expected and polls show a large victory for Macron, between 60/40 and 63/37, which is f** huge ie. game will be over as early as the 23rd of April (the day of the first round).
  2. A second round between her and Fillon is not expected so far but could happen (Macrons voters are less decided than Fillons). Polls show Fillon would win the second round but with a much smaller margin than Macron (between 54/46 and 56/44 ie. risk could be triggered the 23rd if Fillon goes to second round).
  3. Finally we have a third challenger rising for 2 weeks now : Melenchon, extrem-left. He is just behind Fillon in the polls now. Melenchon/Le Pen at the second round (very unexpected so far) wil be explosive for Euro*.

  • #149,339
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:19pm Apr 5, 2017 3:19pm
Just noticed this month is my 4 year anniversary here. I'm supposed to be rich by now
  • #149,340
  • Apr 5, 2017 3:32pm Apr 5, 2017 3:32pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Just noticed this month is my 4 year anniversary here. I'm supposed to be rich by now
lol ....don't say it out loud you may scare some of the fortune tellers and quick millions marketeers around ...

how are those short going first ?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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