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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,301
  • Apr 4, 2017 4:55pm Apr 4, 2017 4:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}...--> France will be on the headlines in the upcoming weeks, the Neonazi woman can trigger something juicy in the upcoming days especially if polls keep turning against her...
Do you mean by that euro* relief rally in the short term !! because I don't seem to be able to quantify france election risk compared to US hikes in euro* % weight .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,302
  • Apr 4, 2017 4:57pm Apr 4, 2017 4:57pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} Do you mean by that euro* relief rally in the short term !! because I don't seem to be able to quantify france election risk compared to US hikes in euro* % weight .
one thing is almost sure that after we clear this election [Le Pen defeat] euro should be able to build a long term bottom inline with all other data we already have for the rest of the year.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,303
  • Apr 4, 2017 5:04pm Apr 4, 2017 5:04pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} In general laying bed, but Syria was nor will be any twitter play. It is the key long term play along Ukraine for few years, and any feed you get in between is meaningless only becouse its tiny micro play to what macro players of elites have laid it down. Whenever it seems like pause it never was (pointed before) nor will be. No such thing as peace, reverse, kill terorism, etc.... Syria is macro play of a complex macro play of recycling energy flows for EU/petrodollar, and dont fall in trap that nearby plotters (Egyput, SA, KT) are party...
Normally when I say "I have no clue what you are talking about." Its kind of a rhetorical thing. But with a lot of your posts I honestly do (I think) want to know what you are talking about. This one is probably a discussion for a different thread though. I just like how you got some unique way of describing everything in like terms. No offense, Im probably just not putting it together.
  • #149,304
  • Edited 5:27pm Apr 4, 2017 5:13pm | Edited 5:27pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} Do you mean by that euro* relief rally in the short term !! because I don't seem to be able to quantify france election risk compared to US hikes in euro* % weight .
Well its a bit less clearer than I would have like it now.

On the one hand, a short term relief rally is a no brainer but it only come on the second round. Also it will be pretty much digested if the difference (as is widely expected) is too big to close. An actual proper shocker will be Le Pen flopping and not passing to the second round (not really expected) as it will be a extremely positive signal for European markets that are already in strong foot from the macro front.

On the other hand, obviously the neonazis winning in France could trigger a Lehman and beyond move but those odds are very very low as per today..

However, more interesting is analysing Euro after (and if we get obviously) if we get the inline results. Euro has never ever ever ever in its short history has fallen on internal risk. Even in the deepest of the Debt Crisis the Euro didn't fall down in the short term . Only once we cleared those risk factors, the day after [almost literality and in all cases] it fell down like a rock...Clearing France elections will clear that massive cloud on top....

I am split between how is going to pan out for now.

Obviously a clear shock (getting rid of the neonazis in the 1st round or Le Pen winning in the second) will be a straight forward flow but an inline (2 rounds with Le Pen losing the second by a large margin) I have the feeling it will trigger the exhaustion leg in Euro via Dollar and Trump to form a hard very hard mid and long term bottom from Q3 and beyond. Common market expectations also tell me a relief rally short term should just spike the euro up clearing all macro bears before forming a bottom later in the year ...

As you can see. Its a zigzag in play. I am not sure yet what direction will be the initial 'zig' but I have the feeling it will be clear even before elections via the US or UK....


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,305
  • Apr 4, 2017 5:25pm Apr 4, 2017 5:25pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Normally when I say "I have no clue what you are talking about." Its kind of a rhetorical thing. But with a lot of your posts I honestly do (I think) want to know what you are talking about. This one is probably a discussion for a different thread though. I just like how you got some unique way of describing everything in like terms. No offense, Im probably just not putting it together.
Recycling of profits into key zones was always primary on board of any empire. Its about the way its done trough the main keystones. 2k BC up to today 2017.
One that denies that, denies that humanity/markets/structures repeat. Admiting complete randomness is pattern of consistent losing traders, not that you made any such statment just saying, consistent perma bears are going to fall into that cathegory...random, but standing very strongly behing one single call, for year, or 10, or ....well.
  • #149,306
  • Edited 9:08pm Apr 4, 2017 6:22pm | Edited 9:08pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well its a bit less clearer than I would have like it now. On the one hand, a short term relief rally is a no brainer but it only come on the second round. Also it will be pretty much digested if the difference (as is widely expected) is too big to close. An actual proper shocker will be Le Pen flopping and not passing to the second round (not really expected) as it will be a extremely positive signal for European markets that are already in strong foot from the macro front. On the other hand, obviously the neonazis winning in France could...
I was thinking *Euro zig down first round France. Zig up 2nd round. Of course that's hardly the only factor and not the only timeframe. But I'm watching for that on the Euro side short term. Looks like that taps into at least the bare minimum of what is on your (and others) radar so I'll stick with it.
  • #149,307
  • Apr 4, 2017 10:04pm Apr 4, 2017 10:04pm
eu is many times a 100 pip whore. high atm 0685, normal retrace is 0585.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,308
  • Apr 4, 2017 10:09pm Apr 4, 2017 10:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...73#post9650473 we will see what happens then. eu upper target 1.13 and norm at 1.108x still valid. 1.13 usually needs 1.0585 before that run. staying above 1.0339 keeps 1.13xx valid. bounce norm (1.0585/1.0340). usd 101.52 is usual before a drop. 101.52/103.82 {image}
still room before i take a eu long..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,309
  • Apr 5, 2017 12:38am Apr 5, 2017 12:38am
the more silent the PA is reacting the more disaster the result will be ....

Eu target 1.0340x and beyond + momentum play (spike) (@1.051x - 1.048x) nothing more to see atleast in my book ..... french election seems to be positive for eu ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,310
  • Apr 5, 2017 7:18am Apr 5, 2017 7:18am
Decent ADP #.
  • #149,311
  • Apr 5, 2017 7:37am Apr 5, 2017 7:37am
Solid numbers from the US with slightly better numbers than expected discounting the revision.

US Equities eager to push higher as there is a ton of soft fresh and 'lagger' money from this year trying to rid the pig but move wont be that juicy on stocks directly as we are already in overvalue mode in the mid term in most sectors and still waiting for Trump economic plan details.

More importantly OIL, looks 'al dente' after strong numbers across Europe and the US and with risk and war noise in the M. East helping the cause as it is widely expected from Tillerson (although May and UK and French government are more than happy to have a quick war distraction in Syria while the start of the negotiations begin and elections clear).

NFP, although not really needed FA or TA wise anymore, will put the cherry on top in commodities. Expecting the mid term break in OIL 'any minute' in the next few sessions.

On the FX board, uneventful sessions as anticipated all week long until today. Tracking NY to kick start the week in the currency board....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,312
  • Apr 5, 2017 8:43am Apr 5, 2017 8:43am
correct me if i am wrong ...
firstly when the eu got the bottom in march 2015 at that time the ez nos. were not that good so we got a compressed zone between 1.17x and 1.04x ... now in the current situation right now both ez and us nos. are good so we are getting a range bound between 1.09x to 1.03x with the the most important FA level 1.061x 1.063x .... i think both bears and bulls are getting frustrated at the moment .... and the speculators are saying everywhere all is fine .... its really getting bored seeing the PA reaction .... i have levels and trades both locked and loaded in any case but as per me i see the chart its not good at all the time is going tick tock tick tock ..... we barely moved an inch in the last 3 days .... still fomc and nfp are the key .... to trigger some volatility .....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,313
  • Edited 9:23am Apr 5, 2017 8:56am | Edited 9:23am
Seems Le Pen did not have a great show last debate. Uncertainty still keeps a lid on *Euro reaction to her as political risk. But pressure is building underneath i would think. Maybe a first round surprise releases it? @replicant, @ganmasse Am I reading it right on the politics? Not sure how big a thing the debate polling/reaction is in the larger scope.

I am thinking dovish minutes is a decent possibility today. There were high market expectations going into the meeting. I recall some hyperbolic talk of 4 hikes that vaporized immediately on the fact.
Thoughts on minutes anyone? Nonevent? Id say dovish or nonevent.

Also, a TA question @sisse or anyone else: If, hypothetically, price via minutes or a tweet or something, tested and rejected 1.073x, and subsequently broke down through 1.056x would that "lock" 1.091x? Or would that break down need 1.048x for you to consider the 1.09x swing high locked and very short term range top should then move down from 1.079x?
  • #149,314
  • Apr 5, 2017 9:15am Apr 5, 2017 9:15am
Quoting primejarvis
correct me if i am wrong ... firstly when the eu got the bottom in march 2015 at that time the ez nos. were not that good so we got a compressed zone between 1.17x and 1.04x ... now in the current situation right now both ez and us nos. are good so we are getting a range bound between 1.09x to 1.03x with the the most important FA level 1.061x 1.063x .... i think both bears and bulls are getting frustrated at the moment .... and the speculators are saying everywhere all is fine .... its really getting bored seeing the PA reaction .... i have levels...
Just to be patient buddy. Still it can be painted a sharp momentum leg down. Look the previous ones. And there was days it was standing still and also where price retraced at those legs too.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,315
  • Apr 5, 2017 9:28am Apr 5, 2017 9:28am
If anything I'd say market is simply looking for further confirmation of the status quo (3+ hikes). Numbers this year so far don't support a dovish outlook for FED at all

NFP will be expected to beat now

@earlobe, the retrace from the first line to the last line is AB=CD
  • #149,316
  • Apr 5, 2017 9:31am Apr 5, 2017 9:31am
By the way, bull flag on DXY weekly

Same with UJ

Bear flag on EU weekly
  • #149,317
  • Apr 5, 2017 9:37am Apr 5, 2017 9:37am
Quoting Pharm0r
If anything I'd say market is simply looking for further confirmation of the status quo (3+ hikes). Numbers this year so far don't support a dovish outlook for FED at all NFP will be expected to beat now @earlobe, the retrace from the first line to the last line is AB=CD
True. Minutes can be dovish against expectations without a dovish outlook. They hiked after all. That's not dovish. But comments re: how many more can be like you said, confirmation of status quo (market expects) or not.
  • #149,318
  • Apr 5, 2017 10:36am Apr 5, 2017 10:36am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Just to be patient buddy. Still it can be painted a sharp momentum leg down. Look the previous ones. And there was days it was standing still and also where price retraced at those legs too. {image}
Same thought ... Already built a lot of patience when it was near 1.13x zone .... And earlier also ... Waiting for a sharp run ... I am just praying right now to let my system work with a lot of FA teaching from the members of RUT and specially sisse ... But still I am not able to combine both in one ... I am waiting for the confirmation of my system .... Then will start to jump in the thread ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,319
  • Apr 5, 2017 10:50am Apr 5, 2017 10:50am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} True. Minutes can be dovish against expectations without a dovish outlook. They hiked after all. That's not dovish. But comments re: how many more can be like you said, confirmation of status quo (market expects) or not.
If my understanding of "normalization" is correct, I think hiking interest rate is no more at the driving seat, but inflation. Hence, I think the importance of the minutes is the language around inflation.
  • #149,320
  • Apr 5, 2017 10:57am Apr 5, 2017 10:57am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} If my understanding of "normalization" is correct, I think hiking interest rate is no more at the driving seat, but inflation. Hence, I think the importance of the minutes is the language around inflation.
Inflation and projected inflation, in the context of the FED anyway, as a marker they use to make decisions about interest rates right?
Like, if interest rates are no longer driving dollar price, why listen to the FED at all? Inflation numbers and expectations are knowable without them. Im probably missing a piece to that puzzle. The cause and effect part gets blurry to me.
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