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Random Walk (The unbeatable!)

  • #21
  • Apr 4, 2017 8:35am Apr 4, 2017 8:35am
I have revised and combined the indicators into one indicator.
Download both of them but attach only the RW-SupportResistanceALL on 5 minute chart, on the background it will use the ATR-Close indicator.



Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 RW-SupportResistanceALL.ex4   17 KB | 1,236 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ATR-Close.ex4   10 KB | 964 downloads


I have edited the first post too....
  • #22
  • Apr 4, 2017 9:56am Apr 4, 2017 9:56am
i like the approach

How are those levels of sup res calculated?
  • #23
  • Apr 4, 2017 9:58am Apr 4, 2017 9:58am
Quoting bistolis
i like the approach How are those levels of sup res calculated?
Thanks. Please check post 12 for the calculation logic...
  • #24
  • Apr 4, 2017 9:59am Apr 4, 2017 9:59am
How u use ATR indicator
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1.png Size: 28 KB
  • #25
  • Apr 4, 2017 10:03am Apr 4, 2017 10:03am
Quoting MemO_KinG
How u use ATR indicator {image}
It is used by the RW-SupportResistanceALL.ex4 indicator. ATR-Close is not used by itself. I have realized that you attached the RW-SupportResistanceALL.ex4 indicator on 1 Hr chart. It is supposed to be attached on 5 minute chart.
Good Luck..
  • #26
  • Apr 4, 2017 10:26am Apr 4, 2017 10:26am
Do you move your SL to BE, perhaps on 38/62 or 50%-Level?
  • #27
  • Apr 4, 2017 10:31am Apr 4, 2017 10:31am
Quoting Traffex
Do you move your SL to BE, perhaps on 38/62 or 50%-Level?
Never. It is either a loss or a win. When you move your SL you are making the probability of price hitting your SL higher. So I personally never move my SL.
You can consider moving your SL to BE when the price reaches 78 when long, 23 when short, for insurance. But I never do that..
Good Luck...
  • #28
  • Apr 4, 2017 10:58am Apr 4, 2017 10:58am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Never. It is either a loss or a win. When you move your SL you are making the probability of price hitting your SL higher. So I personally never move my SL. You can consider moving your SL to BE when the price reaches 78 when long, 23 when short, for insurance. But I never do that.. Good Luck...
GoldTheHun,

Thanks for the food for thought...

How were your results and for how long you have been trading this approach?

One doubt though: When we have to define the trend either by MA or any other X method, isn't it in some sense introducing the subjectivity of the trader into the random walk behavior of the market. I mean, the drift is the current trend. So we can say the market switches between "Randomness" and Predictability{Drift/Current Trend}...Is the approach of defining a trend and saying the market is random antithetical?



Thanks
  • #29
  • Apr 4, 2017 11:19am Apr 4, 2017 11:19am
Quoting aaven
{quote} GoldTheHun, Thanks for the food for thought... How were your results and for how long you have been trading this approach? One doubt though: When we have to define the trend either by MA or any other X method, isn't it in some sense introducing the subjectivity of the trader into the random walk behavior of the market. I mean, the drift is the current trend. So we can say the market switches between "Randomness" and Predictability{Drift/Current Trend}...Is the approach of defining a trend and saying the market is random antithetical?...
Thanks for your comments aaven.
Figuring out the trend is not a must really. If you know it, than it is much better of course. This random walk indicator calculates the possible levels that price could hit during the day. It calculates this using ZScores.
For example if you enter short at level 78, and your target is hit (which is the zero level) your risk reward is approximately 1:3. So even you don't have a clue which way the day will go, there is a big chance the you will come out ahead in the long run.
When the market switches to trend or drift mode it will go much lower than zero level, or much higher than the 100 level. This method uses only a smaller portion of the potential range of the day. So you rally don't need a huge drift/trend.
I trade using few methods, so this is just one of them. This is a very low risk trading style. After you are accustomed to it, you can even use a sort of small martingale multiplier after every loss (small as 1.35 or 1.40 multiplier).
Before you enter the trade the price will hint you that it doesn't want to go above 78 or below 23. When you feel this hesitation it is time to enter. One should never blindly enter everyday at these levels... You should always feel the market........
Hope this helps.
Good Luck....
  • #30
  • Apr 4, 2017 12:45pm Apr 4, 2017 12:45pm
I'm pretty sure that a profitable trade is depended on what happens after you buy or sell, not before.
  • #31
  • Apr 4, 2017 12:55pm Apr 4, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting GoldTheHun
The markets are said to be random walk. Through the years of trading I really believe that the markets are random walk with a drift (drift means the current trend). So in roulette sense random walk is black or red happening has a %50 chance (omitting the zero). Some of you will argue that the markets are not random. I totally respect that. But unfortunately the markets are very close to random walk. I devised a support and resistance indicator ( using abokwaik indicator, praise to him). You will...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hi GTH. In your chart, on post #1, you added fibs only to cover the last 2hrs. How is this determined? The entire day had much higher boundaries. And I'm not understanding how the daily range on your chart, could be so small, compared to the visible daily range.

In applying RW to M5 EU & GU, today, I see nothing usable.
  • #32
  • Apr 4, 2017 1:01pm Apr 4, 2017 1:01pm
Quoting diamonddbw
{quote} ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Hi GTH. In your chart, on post #1, you added fibs only to cover the last 2hrs. How is this determined? The entire day had much higher boundaries. And I'm not understanding how the daily range on your chart, could be so small, compared to the visible daily range. In applying RW to M5 EU & GU, today, I see nothing usable.
Hello diamonddbw,

The Fibs I have put are not time dependent. If you read the first post, the Fibs are supposed to be put starting from D1Res0 line towards D1Sup0 line. So as a result D1Res0 becomes Fib 100, D1Sup0 becomes Fib 0, and daily open becomes Fib 50.
I hope this is clearer now.

Good Luck.....
  • #33
  • Apr 4, 2017 1:30pm Apr 4, 2017 1:30pm
This is pic of current UJ on M5.

Is this set up properly?
Thanks,
Darryl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ RW indy.png Size: 84 KB
  • #34
  • Apr 4, 2017 1:34pm Apr 4, 2017 1:34pm
Quoting diamonddbw
This is pic of current UJ on M5. Is this set up properly? Thanks, Darryl {image}
Yes diamonddbw, your setup is perfect....
  • #35
  • Apr 4, 2017 1:37pm Apr 4, 2017 1:37pm
Quoting diamonddbw
This is pic of current UJ on M5. Is this set up properly? Thanks, Darryl {image}
If your assessment of the market was short, than you could have taken no short trade for the day. If your assessment of the pair was long you would have taken the long trade which would have end up in a loss...
  • #36
  • Apr 4, 2017 1:47pm Apr 4, 2017 1:47pm
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} If your assessment of the market was short, than you could have taken no short trade for the day. If your assessment of the pair was long you would have taken the long trade which would have end up in a loss...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thanks
  • #37
  • Apr 4, 2017 1:48pm Apr 4, 2017 1:48pm
Quoting diamonddbw
{quote} ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Thanks
Welcome Darryl, have a good one....
  • #38
  • Apr 4, 2017 2:36pm Apr 4, 2017 2:36pm
How long it's average to close the trade?
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
  • #39
  • Apr 4, 2017 2:41pm Apr 4, 2017 2:41pm
Quoting dragonexpert
How long it's average to close the trade?
Long trades exit at D1Res0, short trades exit at D1Sup0, if these levels are not hit, you can close at the end of the day or wait for the next day if the swap is in your favor..
  • #40
  • Apr 4, 2017 5:00pm Apr 4, 2017 5:00pm
This broker changes time @ 2100 GMT, 1700 NY. I reloaded indicator so it would reset for new day.

In a case like this, would I only be looking to sell @ 78%, or can I also buy @ 23%?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AudNzd RW indy 5 April.png Size: 79 KB
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