Random Walk (The unbeatable!) | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 49 replies

Probabilities in a Random Walk (Question about one CP's post) 43 replies

Is random really random? 231 replies

Random Walk Theory applying in Expert Advisor 336 replies

Random walk and Pascals triangle 64 replies

Attachments: Random Walk (The unbeatable!)
Exit Attachments

Random Walk (The unbeatable!)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Apr 4, 2017 11:33am Apr 3, 2017 6:06pm | Edited Apr 4, 2017 11:33am
The markets are said to be random walk. Through the years of trading I really believe that the markets are random walk with a drift (drift means the current trend).
So in roulette sense random walk is black or red happening has a %50 chance (omitting the zero). Some of you will argue that the markets are not random. I totally respect that. But unfortunately the markets are very close to random walk.
I devised a support and resistance indicator ( using abokwaik indicator, praise to him). You will see that the prices really respect these levels. Try these indicators out and you will see how important they are.



Just use the RW-SupportResistanceALL on your charts (those indicators use ATR-Close to make the calculations). Please use this indicator on 5 minute chart in order for them to work correctly.
After you attach them on the chart you have to draw Fibo retracement starting from "D1 Res 0" towards "D1 Sup 0". Attached is the chart image

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES_M17M2.png Size: 56 KB


Thats it for now.

Edit: I have revised the indicator, so that only this indicator ( RW-SupportResistanceALL) will be used on the chart. It will use the ATR-Close indy in the background so both must be downloaded

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ATR-Close.ex4   10 KB | 2,418 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 RW-SupportResistanceALL.ex4   17 KB | 2,531 downloads
  • #2
  • Apr 3, 2017 6:33pm Apr 3, 2017 6:33pm
On RW-SupportResistance indicator change the colors of weekly support and weekly resistance to NONE in the indicator color settings..
  • #3
  • Edited 7:00pm Apr 3, 2017 6:44pm | Edited 7:00pm
For trading try the following:

If you believe that the market is short than enter sell limit at Fib 78.4 level, take profit at Fib 0 (D1 Sup 0). Stop Loss few pips above Fib 100 (D1 Res 0).

If you believe that the market is long than enter buy limit at Fib 23.6 level and take profit at Fib 100 (D1 Res 0). Stop Loss few pips below Fib 0 ( D1 Sup 0).

This is sort of a set and forget trading style. You will be surprised when you see the success rate...

Good hunting and Good luck......
  • #4
  • Apr 3, 2017 8:27pm Apr 3, 2017 8:27pm
Thanks for sharing your winning strategy. I am following you and starting with 0.01 lot.
FOR THE HORDE
  • #5
  • Apr 3, 2017 10:13pm Apr 3, 2017 10:13pm
can share more details about the tigger, which pair is suitable, which time for your system, thanks for share Gold, need your update, thanks

---
sto - macd
  • #6
  • Apr 4, 2017 3:53am Apr 4, 2017 3:53am
Quoting JKLee
Thanks for sharing your winning strategy. I am following you and starting with 0.01 lot.
Thank you and good luck..
  • #7
  • Apr 4, 2017 3:55am Apr 4, 2017 3:55am
Quoting Jevan
can share more details about the tigger, which pair is suitable, which time for your system, thanks for share Gold, need your update, thanks --- sto - macd
Well since it uses the random walk theory it can be used for any pair or cfds. Just make sure you put those two indicators on 5 minute charts..
  • #8
  • Apr 4, 2017 4:14am Apr 4, 2017 4:14am
You are 100% right - I tested a lot of systems and spent a lot of money for indicators and magic software. Since few months I trade random and I use a smart trailer. I am profitable now. But most people don't believe that it is so easy.
  • #9
  • Apr 4, 2017 4:29am Apr 4, 2017 4:29am
1. How do you arrive into believing that the market will be long/short ?
2. Do you mind to explain a little the levels algorithm ? 'Cos I cannot use MT4 ... If it's kind of a secret, I will understand ...
  • #10
  • Apr 4, 2017 4:30am Apr 4, 2017 4:30am
Quoting rolandbeck
You are 100% right - I tested a lot of systems and spent a lot of money for indicators and magic software. Since few months I trade random and I use a smart trailer. I am profitable now. But most people don't believe that it is so easy.
I am glad that it works for you. Thank you and good luck....
  • #11
  • Apr 4, 2017 4:51am Apr 4, 2017 4:51am
I like your theory
Unfortunately , I am on vacation but waiting to back and test it.
Subscribe
"The essence of Discipline is that there are no exceptions" - Jack Schwager
  • #12
  • Apr 4, 2017 5:30am Apr 4, 2017 5:30am
Quoting forexcentric
1. How do you arrive into believing that the market will be long/short ? 2. Do you mind to explain a little the levels algorithm ? 'Cos I cannot use MT4 ... If it's kind of a secret, I will understand ...
1. It is up to you. You can use moving average, or any other method to figure out the trend.
2. It is not a secret. Random walk calculates (Sqrt(bars) * Volatility * ZScore)
You can find more detailed explanation on wikipedia or any other statistics based website.
Thanks...
  • #13
  • Apr 4, 2017 5:31am Apr 4, 2017 5:31am
Quoting Panisko
I like your theory Unfortunately , I am on vacation but waiting to back and test it. Subscribe
Thanks Panisko.. Enjoy your vacation in the meantime....
  • #14
  • Apr 4, 2017 6:46am Apr 4, 2017 6:46am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} 1. It is up to you. You can use moving average, or any other method to figure out the trend. 2. It is not a secret. Random walk calculates (Sqrt(bars) * Volatility * ZScore) You can find more detailed explanation on wikipedia or any other statistics based website. Thanks...

Do you use the 5 min trend ? Or 1h, Daily?
  • #15
  • Apr 4, 2017 6:55am Apr 4, 2017 6:55am
Quoting Traffex
{quote} Do you use the 5 min trend ? Or 1h, Daily?
Since this is a 1 trade per day suggestion, better to use 1 hour and up to find the trend...
  • #16
  • Apr 4, 2017 6:57am Apr 4, 2017 6:57am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Since this is a 1 trade per day suggestion, better to use 1 hour and up to find the trend...

Thank you, I thought so.
  • #17
  • Apr 4, 2017 7:16am Apr 4, 2017 7:16am
Is it correct, that we must have a longer distance between the last reversal of the trend and the 23.6/78.4- Level, so that the trend can develop? Or is it acceptable, when the trend starts at the 0/100-Level for instance?

Can you tell us your winrate?
  • #18
  • Apr 4, 2017 7:35am Apr 4, 2017 7:35am
Quoting Traffex
Is it correct, that we must have a longer distance between the last reversal of the trend and the 23.6/78.4- Level, so that the trend can develop? Or is it acceptable, when the trend starts at the 0/100-Level for instance? Can you tell us your winrate?
The Random Walk theory does not give any indication of a trend. It just gives the possible levels of turning points (support and resistance). The winning percentage depends on how successfully you can assess the trend for that specific day.
A trader who is successful in evaluating the correct trend can even enter a trade at the opening of the new day and target "D1 Sup 0" for short target or "D1 Res 0" for a long target.
  • #19
  • Apr 4, 2017 8:10am Apr 4, 2017 8:10am
So the levels refresh every day at 00:00? (daily levels)
  • #20
  • Apr 4, 2017 8:16am Apr 4, 2017 8:16am
Quoting mattkirby
So the levels refresh every day at 00:00? (daily levels)
Exactly... Good Luck...
1 trader viewing now